Set and straight

[BZ_Zorro]

Villain is horrible, 60/2 after 50 hands, but aggressive post flop with or without a hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($89)
BB ($164.17)
UTG ($104.05)
UTG+1 ($193.45)
MP1 ($71.35)
MP2 ($133.1)
MP3 ($137.35)
CO ($101.93)
Hero ($114.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP2 calls $7.

Turn: ($35.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $35</font>, Hero...

Yeah I know the flop min raise is horrible, but tell me again.

Anyone call this turn?

[meow_meow]

Assuming he has one of your outs, you are going to fill up slightly more than 1 time in 5. Even if you can guarantee that he'll call for the rest of your stack, you don't have odds to call the turn.
This obviously assumes that he really has the straight.

[swolfe]

terrible time to minraise the flop.

(not that there's ever a good time)

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
This obviously assumes that he really has the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if he really does. Is this a straightforward strength = nuts here?

[meow_meow]

I guess not always, this morning at 100nl 6max the board gave me a A-high straight with my J on the river (TQKA board), opponent bet out the pot ($20) from bb, I pushed from the button and was surprised when he folded.

I guess some people will occassionally bluff at boards like this.

[Ghazban]

I don't necessarily believe he has the straight. I think two pair (or worse) is likely. What's your read? Is he a chronic slowplayer? Is he the type to bet out with the nuts on the turn or more likely to checkraise (your raise on the flop might lead him to believe you'll bet the turn)?

[crazygeorge]

In this situation i would not put him on a jack, i expereinced a similar situation on full tilt. In this case he could be holding ak or aq and could be pullign a semi bluff, this is a really intersting hand.

[meow_meow]

It probably doesn't mean much, but if I'm villain here, OOP with a jack, this is exactly the bet I'm making.

[salloch]

Neat hand.

You could be up against AK, AQ, AT, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, KQ taking KQ out of the mix that's 66 hands.

Or you could be up against AJ, JJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, or J8 taking J8 out of the mix leaves 86 hands.

If you assume there's a 10% chance he's bluffing, that makes you a 1.2 - 1 dog just on the above analysis.

The pot is offering you 2 - 1, so this argues for a call, (or a push?)

But you might have 13 outs as well, 3 J, 1 A, 3 K, 3 Q, 3 T. That will halve the pot, or give you the nuts (or very close to it).

I'm not sure if a call or a push is correct here, but can it really be correct to fold?

BTW, when I read the post, my first thought was "fold, he has a jack". And that's probably what I would have done.

Is this take correct, or am I making a *huge* mistake thinking he might have KK, QQ, etc...

Thanks for and interesting AA post!

-salloch

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone call this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
Does anyone not call this turn?

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could be up against AJ, JJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, or J8 taking J8 out of the mix leaves 86 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
J7 anyone?

I really like the way villain played this hand. He put me to a decision on laying down an obviously good hand without giving any information about his own.

I went all in here because it looked so much like a bad player with AK/AQ/KQ. In hindsight I can't see many hands playing this way against a pf/flop raiser except a set or a J.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($89)
BB ($164.17)
UTG ($104.05)
UTG+1 ($193.45)
MP1 ($71.35)
MP2 ($133.1)
MP3 ($137.35)
CO ($101.93)
Hero ($114.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP2 calls $7.

Turn: ($35.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $35</font>, Hero calls $97.85 (All-In), MP2 calls $62.85.

River: ($231.20) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $231.20

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has Jc 7c (straight, ace high).
Hero has Ad Ah (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins $231.20. </font>

Later noticed that every time Villain bets he bet the pot. I'm beginning to think it's an excellent strategy at these levels, it puts your opponent to a decision and gives nothing away.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Later noticed that every time Villain bets he bet the pot. I'm beginning to think it's an excellent strategy at these levels, it puts your opponent to a decision and gives nothing away except money

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

[BZ_Zorro]

OK, well I'm still not decided on that one. It's a highly intimidating play and I've seen a lot of big pots go to these players over time, people start calling with hands they shouldn't and get punished for it. Obviously good read skills are needed though.