The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....

[curtains]

I'm just posting this because I believe a lot of people on this forum would feel this is an automatic fold in TEPop's spot (NickB from 2+2), whereas it's actually a very good call in this situation..


***** Hand History for Game -2131683186 *****
200/400 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 12855742) - MON JUN 06 03:21:14 EDT 2005
Table Table 11087 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: swiftdeal (1095)
Seat 2: luna00 (1140)
Seat 3: yozzy (1045)
Seat 4: The_Robot (1030)
Seat 5: dandydan144 (1290)
Seat 8: curtainz (1005)
Seat 9: phukyoo (1970)
Seat 10: TEPop84 (1425)
phukyoo posts small blind (100)
TEPop84 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ Js, Ts ]
swiftdeal folds.
luna00 folds.
yozzy folds.
The_Robot folds.
dandydan144 folds.
curtainz raises (1005) to 1005
curtainz is all-In.
phukyoo folds.
TEPop84 calls (805)
Creating Main Pot with $2110 with curtainz
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2d, 9h, Qd ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 6c ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2110 |
Board: [ 2d 9h Qd 4h 6c ]
swiftdeal balance 1095, didn't bet (folded)
luna00 balance 1140, didn't bet (folded)
yozzy balance 1045, didn't bet (folded)
The_Robot balance 1030, didn't bet (folded)
dandydan144 balance 1290, didn't bet (folded)
curtainz balance 0, lost 1005 [ Js Ts ] [ high card queen -- Qd,Js,Ts,9h,6c ]
phukyoo balance 1870, lost 100 (folded)
TEPop84 balance 2530, bet 1005, collected 2110, net +1105 [ Ac 2h ] [ a pair of twos -- Ac,Qd,9h,2h,2d ]

[citanul]

good post? i'd like it better if you posted say, some of the icm numbers that make this call good /images/graemlins/smile.gif

plugging in any reasonably wide range of hands for this noob curtainz shows this to be a very significantly +EV call. it should be noted that if curtainz was a stupidly tight player, this call would of course be horrible. (if he's playing 77+, A9+, this would be a -2.7 call, which is wow bad.) something tells me this curtainz guy probably isn't stupidly tight though.

also should be included that there is bonus EV for spite call busting a fellow 2+2er.

other interesting things: say your range is as wide as 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J9+, calling with things like K6o is +EV too. so well, maybe that explains why those fish that call with Kxo for 80% of their stacks are doing it, they know it's +EV.

citanul

[curtains]

Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]


Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the part I'm not understanding though. How do we know that it is recommended to do this in the 215s against a typical opponent? I'm not saying that it ISN'T, I'm just saying that as I read this and try to educate myself, I don't see anything here that tells me that something is correct at the 215s that isn't correct at the 55s. I could post lots of hands where I pushed a hand in the 55s and someone made a call and beat me, but that wouldn't really mean anything.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]


Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just about to ask the rationale behind the call when I saw this quote. This explains a little more why I (playing the $55s) shouldn't make this call against random donk-head. Of course if I ever make it to the $215s, my edge over others is much less, or none at all, and the opponents more agressive, where I'd be making this call routinely. Does that sound right?

[curtains]

Depends on situation. In this situation it was definitely a call. I'm sure there are players where it's a fold or at least much closer. However it's more common to make such tough calls in the $215s, especially calls that will leave you desperate with very little folding equity if you lose, yet you are reasonably comfortable in chips when you make the call.

[Mr_J]

Because he knows you will be stealing with a very wide range of hands here...

Out of interest, what range of hands should he be calling with??

[adanthar]

Three more things about this call, one why it's good and two
why it can be very ugly:

1)If you win, you eliminate a very good player to your right (plus the image play);
2)If you are even slightly off on your read, this play sucks;
3)If he knows you are good, there's a very good chance you *are* off on your read and his range is tighter.

So basically, I'd fold and feel pretty decent doing it, but I'd still spite call if my kicker was, like, a 5.

[Mr_J]

Level of thinking:

Nick knows curtains will be stealing with a huge range here. So he should call.

Curtains knows that nick knows he will be stealing with a huge range here, so he tightens up his pushing standards.

In turn, nick knows this and recongizes he needs a much higher calling requirement.

Curtains knows this and goes back to loose pushing standards.

It could go on forever....

[curtains]

Almost no one can call loose enough here to make pushing a very wide range incorrect. I mean he has to start calling with hands like K6o-Q9o before I stop pushing with +EV, and that's really tough to do.

Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

[Whitey]

I would have made the title "The sort of pushes you have to make at the $215s"

[Whitey]

Ah ignore my post,I thought he called with 22.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is really a bad beat post?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have made the title "The sort of pushes you have to make at the $215s"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very standard push at levels other than the $215s...

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is really a bad beat post?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a bad beat that curtains' plan to sit to Nick's right ended up backfiring on him.

[WebGuySteve]

I think what makes this situation the perfect time for the call is that there are a lot of people left at this level (which happens very often in the 215s.) This makes gambling much more necessary. I often find that this is the hardest point of these tournaments for me to play. I find that I make pushes, and get called by hands like A2, or K9, where I expect these types of hands to fold. Though, this could just be the mini bad run speaking /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I do like the call, and I've played several tournies with TEPop, he is one I try to avoid if possible. I never knew it was NickB though...good to know /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Whitey]

I agree but not everyone realises this.
Also I misread the post and thought the caller had 22.

If this had been the case I disagreed with the title of the post.

[curtains]

lol I honestly don't pay much attention to seat selection. Someone like him I'd prefer just to sit like 5 seats away so we don't have to go to war all the time...it's kind of bothersome dealing with such things when playing 8 games. But okay, most of the time I just sit down where it makes sense for my monitor....like 4 games on one side of table and 4 on the other. It's deep strategy

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree but not everyone realises this.
Also I misread the post and thought the caller had 22.

If this had been the case I disagreed with the title of the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been under the assumption that the majority of posters on this board are pushing with a lot worse than JTs in this position.

I'm pretty sure it's a call with 22, in fact, I assume it's a more sure call with 22 rather A2, so I'm not sure where you're going here.

[kyro]

I actually do the same thing. All 4 corners so that my players are in the middle of my screen. I agree that being as far away from a solid player who knows that you're also solid is the best strategy, but against people who don't know who you are, I like to sit to their right.

Interesting story (actually, not that interesting.) I sat down in one of my usual corners and noticed a 2+2er was directly to my right. I left the table and came back sitting directly to HIS right. He types in "Why'd you do that outdrawed? /images/graemlins/smile.gif" So I was busted.

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm at work, so I don't have access to all my tools.

Curtains, my first thought is that this call isn't as wise on level 4, but since the blinds are so large now on level 5, that's really the kind of "kicker" that makes calling here correct with A2.

Also, the following is in response to another poster about the difference between calling with A2 vs 22. My hunch was that A2 is slightly ahead of 22 against this range. The results below.

Hand 1: 52.1956 % [ 00.48 00.05 ] { AA-55, 33-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o }
Hand 2: 47.8044 % [ 00.43 00.05 ] { A2s, A2o }

Hand 1: 52.6932 % [ 00.52 00.01 ] { AA-55, 33-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o }
Hand 2: 47.3068 % [ 00.47 00.01 ] { 22 }

[curtains]

Yeah but you cheated and included A2s with A2o

[ilya]

Why did you bizarrely exclude 44 from curtainz' pushing range? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[curtains]

4's are unlucky to me, I never play them, I thought everyone knew that? I wonder what that would do to my ROI if I decided to fold pocket fours everytime no matter what.....how many ROI points would I lose?

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
4's are unlucky to me, I never play them, I thought everyone knew that? I wonder what that would do to my ROI if I decided to fold pocket fours everytime no matter what.....how many ROI points would I lose?

[/ QUOTE ]
haha


I think that people are overlooking how +EV this push is. I mean, if Nick was going to fold A2 here that lets curtains push any two. Even with him calling with hands wider than A2 it seems like curtains can be pushing much worse than 10Js. At a $50 against a typical opponent i'm usually pushing any two here.

[Nick B.]

When I opened this up, I thought this was going to be a flame post. I haven't been playing that well, so I was doubting my decisions. I was close to a fold, but the fact that I would still have 400 left if I lost and it was a good player pushing on the button moved it to a call.

[DonButtons]

he turned into a actionmonkey type, I def. dont like sitting on actionmonkeys right...

[raptor517]

i dont like this call, even if i think yer pushing 70% of hands there. holla

[durron597]

He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o }
Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o }

[raptor517]

sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla

[GoldenHorde]

The calls seems much easier if BB has enough chips to maintain at least some FE if he loses, with 1425 i'm letting this go.

[Madd]

Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, if I do bust Curtains, that is 1 less person raising my blinds everytime, which will be good for me.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

[/ QUOTE ]

My mind is too 8-tabled out to do math, but ICM does not take into account the "meta-factor" of preserving fold equity the times you fold. So...you're probably going to have to win more than 42.5% of the time for it to be correct.

At first I thought it was 200/400 blinds and thought it was an insta call, but 100/200 that's pushing it. All depends on your read of UTG and his pushing habits/his awareness of & how he values preserving his own fold equity (which is in jeopardy, maybe he's willing to open up his pushing range on this hand, maybe not....). If you fold and pay your SB, on average you'll have a few +EV chip pushing opportunities come your way (+EV due to the combination of your fold equity + your chance of winning when called) that you lose by calling and losing.

But over top 70% of hands seems a little high of a calling threshold...I wouldn't fold if I knew I was 50% (A2o vs. roughly top 1/2 of hands), or better yet a favorite here with that better than 3:2 overlay and 1.5 BB left if you call and lose (after paying the SB) with a chance to regain fold equity again by winning one showdown.

How much less than 50% to win, not sure.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what makes this situation the perfect time for the call is that there are a lot of people left at this level (which happens very often in the 215s.) This makes gambling much more necessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

With his stack and the number of players left (if he wins), I very much like his chances here. Heading towards level 6 and it is 7-handed the big stack is pretty useful.

[Madd]

You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

6 handed against skilled opponents with large blinds I think it's more important than we would like to discount. Against skilled opponents passing up +EV, high variance spots is a big mistake.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect raptor's point is that CEV isn't what you should be concerned about, but $ EV.

EDIT: Yikes; bubble time made me lose track of how long it had been since this was updated. I see my post is far from relevant at the moment.

[PartySNGer]

1505:805 isn't the pot odds. The push was 1005 with 100 and 200 blinds and no1 else in the pot. He's only getting 1305:805 on the call.

FWIW, I don't really like the call, maybe I'm just tighter than most (and I prob am), but in this situation with the blinds fairly minimal I don't think I would ever make a call with a hand like 22, 33, or A2. You are either a 60% favorite at most if you're right, or you're dominated. With this many people left and the blinds still only 100/200 you have time to build a stack, no need to panic already.

[Jason Strasser]

Man.

I dont make this call. Its close though. If I was doubting my game I'd definitely make this call, but I feel like while just by the numbers this might be a +ev situation, I'd rather just hang on to my folding equity for the x% of the chance that I lose. It marginal EV wise that I'd rather pass on it and take higher EV situations (generally this is stealing blinds). It's quite a big difference if nick can lose this hand and have like 600-700 chips. But in reality, I don't make this call. You can't just plug hands into an ICM calculator and make decisions.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

I wish i had read this before I post. But yeah, I think Gramps and Raptor are on target here.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla



[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I was thinking its a clear +CEV call, but does it have a positive $EV.

Mack

[PartySNGer]

[ QUOTE ]
Man.

I dont make this call. Its close though. If I was doubting my game I'd definitely make this call, but I feel like while just by the numbers this might be a +ev situation, I'd rather just hang on to my folding equity for the x% of the chance that I lose. It marginal EV wise that I'd rather pass on it and take higher EV situations (generally this is stealing blinds). It's quite a big difference if nick can lose this hand and have like 600-700 chips. But in reality, I don't make this call. You can't just plug hands into an ICM calculator and make decisions.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]


Exactly. One important concept to remember is that you should pass up a slightly EV situation if a higher EV situation comes up later. This call may be very slightly +EV punching in some numbers, but you will almost assuredly have a better situation than this with the # of players left.

[curtains]

Ok but you realize this means you are basically making it so that the button is wrong by quite a bit to not push any 2 there. If you want to play a style where it's clearly correct for me to push with any 2 every single time, then I just can't see how that's correct, especially if you suspect that's what I'm doing and yet pass up on clear +CEV calls anyway.

[PartySNGer]

[ QUOTE ]

Ok but you realize this means you are basically making it so that the button is wrong by quite a bit to not push any 2 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This just proves my point, you will find much better opportunities than calling with A2 and praying ur a 60% favorite (best case scenario) and not dominated.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok but you realize this means you are basically making it so that the button is wrong by quite a bit to not push any 2 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How so? Say it's folded to the button here, he pushes for 1k, and you're in the BB with A2o. Comparing to your UTG push, I'm going to assign a wider range of hands to the button, and call with some hands that I wouldn't call the UTG push with.

[curtains]

I don't understand? The hand in question was the button pushing?

[Gramps]

In response to the "button any two correct" comment, I was just pointing out that a button push does not get the same respect as an UTG push, as most players (rightfully so) push a much wider range from the button. So...just because someone folds A2o to an UTG push, doesn't mean they're going to pass up a calling opportunity when that push comes from the CO, button or SB. Saying pushing any two becomes correct is overstating it I think (especially since you have to get by an SB who's not going to give you much respect either).

For the people saying fold A2o to the UTG push, the point is that you can't necessarily put a pusher there on a wide range of hands there. It's player dependent. If the UTG pusher is suspected to be pushing just about any two, then easy, easy call. Pushing top 1/4 of hands, bad call (even according to ICM by someone else's math).

And even if the UTG's range makes it slightly +EV chip-wise, a skilled player (playing against some bad opponents) is going to on average have multiple +EV stealing opportunities (if FE is still present) 100% of the time by folding the A2o. By calling with the A2o, you miss out on those opportunities the half (or so) of the time you call with your A2o and lose. And winning those chips the half (or so) of the times you call with A2o and win isn't going to give you some immediate stealing edge right away either (you're far away from the bubble) to compensate for that opportunity cost of lost FE the times you call with A2o and lose.

Yada-yada, I'm now officially rambling.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla


[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully not until I'm retired, living on some tropical island in the Pacific...

[curtains]

There was no UTG push, the entire hand has dealt with a push from the button. Im very confused, and I'd clearly fold A2o if UTG was the pusher. I think it'd be insane to call an UTG pusher for 800 more with A2o.

[Gramps]

Sorry, I brainfarted. I read the original post hours ago and thought I remembered it as an UTG push. 8-tabling is warping my mind (I think I'm going to blame it on a lot of other mistakes in the upcoming months), I go sleepy now... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains wrote:

Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

yup, if i was bb, i would have folded a2o with 8 players left at lvl5.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
This just proves my point, you will find much better opportunities than calling with A2 and praying ur a 60% favorite (best case scenario) and not dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the "you will find better spots later on" stance. With 8 players and blinds soon reaching 150/300 it is possible that you never get to open a pot again, less open a pot with a hand you feel ok with.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Curtains wrote:

Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

yup, if i was bb, i would have folded a2o with 8 players left at lvl5.

[/ QUOTE ]
I usually do to, but curtains doesn't play the $50s anymore. If curtains was sitting on the button at my table then I'm definitly calling, it doesn't matter if its a $50 or $200. Curtains already mentioned my main reasong for calling (other than is being really +EV)is that it will discourage future steals. Its kind of like the spite call thread, except this one is already making you money to begin with. besides, catching other 2+2ers pushing junk (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2583193&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) is fun /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Whitey]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been under the assumption that the majority of posters on this board are pushing with a lot worse than JTs in this position.


[/ QUOTE ]

The majority is not everyone.

Secondly,I think calling with 22 is wrong.The only way I call with 22 here is if the villian has already done this to me several times and I'm getting p*ssed off with him doing it.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]

Secondly,I think calling with 22 is wrong.The only way I call with 22 here is if the villian has already done this to me several times and I'm getting p*ssed off with him doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]
haha, great reasoning.......

[Jason Strasser]

Curtains,

I see your point here, and it is a loophole in my logic. In the 1k sngs sometimes I feel like an opponent is pushing a little too much because he knows I dont love calling there with hands like A2o, so I'll make a FU call once in a while that tends to slow them down. I dont know about you, but when I push here and get called with A2o I adjust because I don't expect many players to make that call. So if you think you'll slow an opponent down in the future by calling with A2o then it should be worth it.

I never said there is anything really wrong about calling here, I'd just prefer not to.

-Jason

[curtains]

btw I know this is ridiculous crosspost, but you responded to some thread by Daliman in the NL section and your response made no sense, almost like it was in response to another hand. He posted some hand preflop with QQ, and you posted "On the river I'd have to be getting damn close to 5.5:1 to call, and you arent anywhere close."

Not sure where the river comes in to play, and why would anyone need 5.5-1 odds to call allin preflop with QQ against one opponent.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've been under the assumption that the majority of posters on this board are pushing with a lot worse than JTs in this position.


[/ QUOTE ]

The majority is not everyone.

Secondly,I think calling with 22 is wrong.The only way I call with 22 here is if the villian has already done this to me several times and I'm getting p*ssed off with him doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If people are bad enough that they don't know pushing with JTs is a must, then they need to leave this thread and go read some of the more basic ones (like the "should i push 88 with 3BB UTG??). This concept will most likely confuse them and make them play more poorly than help them.

Also, I don't see how calling with A2o but folding 22 makes any sense. But yes, keep calling for the sole reason that you're mad at them. I bet that does wonders for the bankroll.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
If people are bad enough that they don't know pushing with JTs is a must, then they need to leave this thread and go read some of the more basic ones (like the "should i push 88 with 3BB UTG??). This concept will most likely confuse them and make them play more poorly than help them.

Also, I don't see how calling with A2o but folding 22 makes any sense. But yes, keep calling for the sole reason that you're mad at them. I bet that does wonders for the bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,572,400 games 3.815 secs 549,822,385 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.9286 % [ 00.53 00.02 ] { Ad2h }
Hand 2: 45.0714 % [ 00.43 00.02 ] { random }


---

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,572,400 games 3.205 secs 654,468,767 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 50.3340 % [ 00.49 00.01 ] { 2h2d }
Hand 2: 49.6660 % [ 00.49 00.01 ] { random }

[gumpzilla]

Nice post. I think lots of people don't appreciate how sucky 22 is.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post. I think lots of people don't appreciate how sucky 22 is.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I didn't appreciate how sucky 22 was, it's that I underappreciated how unsucky A2o was.

This really surprises me. So whitey, you win this round.

[Jason Strasser]

Well...

I believe it was a 5-10 game with 1300 behind. Unless your opponent is a total donk, dont expect to get all in for 130bb with QQ and expect to be ahead more than one time out of twenty.

-Jason

[Bigwig]

I've noticed a lot of new posters in the forum over the last week. You getting any fanboy PMs from SI readers?

[Voltron87]

I think it might be the WSOP starting as well. just a tip, don't go to the WPT forum. It's worst there.

[BradleyT]

22 is a dog to a very wide range of medium connectors (JTs, QTs, 78s, even Q8s).

[Whitey]

Ok I must remember that everyone takes things FAR to literally on here.

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly,I think calling with 22 is wrong.The only way I call with 22 here is if the villian has already done this to me several times and I'm getting p*ssed off with him doing it

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Im calling because I'm going to make a stand and not get pushed around any more,geez.

Also I would have folded A2 as well,unless as previously stated I'm getting p*ss.... err going to make a stand.

[Whitey]

Thank you /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The banter and counter arguments is what makes people follow up with posts like that,lets keep it up. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Whitey]

Mmmm maybe I'm calling with A2 more than I would of. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[freemoney]

curtains do you really think this is an autocall or an autocall because nick knows its you pushing?, sorry if this was already addressed i didnt read rest of thread

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
curtains do you really think this is an autocall or an autocall because nick knows its you pushing?, sorry if this was already addressed i didnt read rest of thread

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure we said it was a fold at the $55s, so basically it's only a call because we can put curtains on basically any two.

[curtains]

I believe it's correct because its me. From a purely theoretical standpoint I suspect it should be correct if your opponents are playing optimally.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

I believe it's correct because its me. From a purely theoretical standpoint I suspect it should be correct if your opponents are playing optimally.

[/ QUOTE ]

If my opponents are playing optimally I think I'll move down to the $55s where I know they don't. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Stormwolf]

The fact that people are actually advocating a call here makes me sick, this thread should be deleted forever

[ QUOTE ]
Level of thinking:

Nick knows curtains will be stealing with a huge range here. So he should call.

Curtains knows that nick knows he will be stealing with a huge range here, so he tightens up his pushing standards.

In turn, nick knows this and recongizes he needs a much higher calling requirement.

Curtains knows this and goes back to loose pushing standards.

It could go on forever....

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't go on forever. If you screw around with SnG Power Tools a little here, you'll find that the two players actually have perfect plays. Ie, there's a pushing range that button can have that is optimal even after BB adjusts.

Important to clarify that this call is just about as bad as it gets on the bubble (except, of course, calling with worse hands, which would be worse).

[Nicholasp27]

against someone who pushes a wide range, it is +ev to call with a2o

a few have argued some good points against calling, but there are counter-arguments to those points...as well as one that hasn't been brought up yet, which is the extra ev u earn when u win the hand and have that large stack...u can then steal with impunity and have a great chance at 1st place

[Nicholasp27]

no, this is a good call if u know ur opp is pushing a loose range

[stupidsucker]

People get so bent out of shape about close calls/folds/pushes

I see plain clear evidence that makes this a call or a fold. Either work based on how you play the game from here on out.

Knowing your weaknesses and strengths in your own game with pure honesty will give you the best answer. People have different games and you must play accordingly.

If you weild a big stack well and get nervous in level 6-7 with 7-8 players left then call.

If you are very good with pushes and have a good grasp on your FE at this table then fold.

If you are a poker god than folding is probably better.

I think OP made his point because a lot of people would indeed consider this an insta fold. This can still be a fold, but there is merit in calling.
<font color="white">just bad advice from a strugling 10+1 player that wishes he wasn't a moron </font>

[pooh74]

I think when you combine the three factors here, it becomes a good call...anyone or two alone and its a bad call.

Curtainz is known by Nick, 2+2er (could be any two)
Folded to the button (this is obvious)
Blinds are just juicy enough.

Of course, Nick knows that curtains knows that Nick knows...so I dont think 97o wouldve done here. JTs can hold its own against against a wide range of calls.

So my question is curtains, did you consider the cards here?


---edit---jesyus...just realized how old this thread was...who dug this up? Thought it looked familiar.

[samr]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like this call, even if i think yer pushing 70% of hands there. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else feel this is a pretty bad call?

The best case scenario is if Villain is pushing K2-32, in which case Hero is way ahead.
Anything else, Hero is either a marginal favorite (against any two random, live cards) or way behind (vs any pair, any Ax).

This situation is too marginal for me to get involved in, and I'd rather push any two the next chance I get.

[valejo]

[ QUOTE ]
Level of thinking:

Nick knows curtains will be stealing with a huge range here. So he should call.

Curtains knows that nick knows he will be stealing with a huge range here, so he tightens up his pushing standards.

In turn, nick knows this and recongizes he needs a much higher calling requirement.

Curtains knows this and goes back to loose pushing standards.

It could go on forever....

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is exactly why we say that ICM-based bubble strategy is unexploitable . . .

[MegaBet]

I hate calling all my chips off with A2. You're just not that much ahead against almost any hand, and are usually dominated.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o }
Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o }

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget, this is for ALL his chips. That makes this a fold in my book. It's not like having odds of calling a 100 river bet.

[Nicholasp27]

what hands dominate u?

ax? 65%
pp? 70%
suited connectors? 48.8%
2 random cards k-3? 41.2%

only aa and pp really dominate...u are 2-1 against ax, but anything else (most hands) u are ahead of

[Nicholasp27]

not all his chips

he'll still have 400

[MegaBet]

Thanks for proving my point so well.

[microbet]

I think you really have to take your opponent into account here and the caller knew Curtains would have a much wider range than average here.

I'm not saying that your reasoning is wrong, but your post reminded me of Gigabet's posts about gambler's ruin and how people fold too often when it is for all their chips. I had wondered how well that applied to STTs.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o }
Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o }

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget, this is for ALL his chips. That makes this a fold in my book. It's not like having odds of calling a 100 river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, getting 1.6-1 on the call, being a 1.2-1 dog against the average hands. Yea, wonderful fold. Not even considering that you will still have 400 in chips left if you happen to lose.

The argument for folding is that you can just get those chips back next hand by pushing from the sb. I would say that the chances of getting it folded to me in the sb would be about 25% and the chances that I would have a hand that I would want to push would be about 40%, therefore by folding this hand where I might be a favorite I am [censored] myself.

Here is an experiment for sng players to try. When you think you have the best hand push or call, and when you don't fold. Instead of folding favorites until you are so desperate that you need to push two [censored] cards.

[Nicholasp27]

he knows curtains is pushing a WIDE range here

which means &gt;50% of the hands curtains is pushing will NOT dominate a2

[MegaBet]

I dislike A2 with a passion. Maybe I'm just a tight player - that's my style. It's served me well, but take that into account when I post.