First -ROI run over 100 SnG's... Oof

[FatalError]

Well it finally happened today, over my last 100 SnG's i've lost about 13 buyins at 109's, sliced in every conceivable manner... i've been 8 tabling for a few weeks now so it was due to happen eventually, but i had been running really good (i'm still at 19% ROI over 2000) even during bad runs before i'd posted small profits but today was a slicing like i've never had in SnG's

What do you guys do when you get your brains beatten out, do you take a break or fire on through, dropping down isn't an option... my bankroll is still just fine for this level. But mentally i'm a little frazzled by constant strings of 8-12 OOTM

[Newt_Buggs]

meh, I don't think that you get complaining rights until you're on a 500 tourney losing streak. I'm negative on my last 200 $50s right now as I type this (the constant suckout on the bubble are really starting to get to me).

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What do you guys do when you get your brains beatten out, do you take a break or fire on through, dropping down isn't an option... my bankroll is still just fine for this level. But mentally i'm a little frazzled by constant strings of 8-12 OOTM

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dropping down has nothing to do with your bankroll. It sounds like you aren't going to be playing your best, in which case you should either take a break until you feel that you can play optimally or drop down to a level where you feel confident even when you're not playing 100%.

[FatalError]

Eh, i've never played lower than the 109's thats where i started... i don't feel like i'm playing less than optimal... i did bust early in 2 or 3 where i should have let go of QQ and once with JJ against someone i thought was a little wild... but i also did fold QQ and JJ plenty early (when you don't thats an obvious sign you're being effected) i think all my pushes have been correct... i've just been losing alot of coinflips and 60/40's... and taking some horrific beats at inopportune times... i guess it's tough to deal with that knifes edge where if i win 4-5 more coinflips on the bubble and 5 handed i make it ITM where i play well and probably finish break even or positive for the day

I think i may have set my standards a little high because i feel like a very good 109 player and believe i can maintain 20$/SnG w/ rakeback and this was the first real hit i've taken over 2000 SnG's

[DonButtons]

19% roi over 2000 is insane

holla at me on aim

[raptor517]

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i feel like a very good 109 player and believe i can maintain 20$/SnG w/ rakeback and this was the first real hit i've taken over 2000 SnG's

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well, i think you have set your standards way too fu**** high. like, 2 people in the world can maintain 20$/sng. more than likely, you are not one of those two. im sure as hell not one of those 2. i would be perfectly content with TEN dollars per sng at the 109s, and thats just SLIGHTLY higher than where i am at. more than likely, you are a luckbox on a turbo heater. however, that is more than likely. it is possible you are one of the greatest players ever to live, which would be kickass, but its not very likely. sorry if this seems harsh, but im tired, and irritated at all of these damn posts about 20% roi over 1235820690-286409 sngs. trust me. it wont last. all of you people getting mad about 15 buyin drops, get used to it. thats part of multitabling. if you never have a 50 buyin drop, you will never be able to play poker professionally.

holla

[curtains]

Yeah I love it, come to a forum talking about a 19% ROI at the $109's and pretend like you are running bad. That's just the kind of thing the people trying to get a 10% ROI at the $11s want to hear.

[Myst]

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i feel like a very good 109 player and believe i can maintain 20$/SnG w/ rakeback and this was the first real hit i've taken over 2000 SnG's

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well, i think you have set your standards way too fu**** high. like, 2 people in the world can maintain 20$/sng. more than likely, you are not one of those two. im sure as hell not one of those 2. i would be perfectly content with TEN dollars per sng at the 109s, and thats just SLIGHTLY higher than where i am at. more than likely, you are a luckbox on a turbo heater. however, that is more than likely. it is possible you are one of the greatest players ever to live, which would be kickass, but its not very likely. sorry if this seems harsh, but im tired, and irritated at all of these damn posts about 20% roi over 1235820690-286409 sngs. trust me. it wont last. all of you people getting mad about 15 buyin drops, get used to it. thats part of multitabling. if you never have a 50 buyin drop, you will never be able to play poker professionally.

holla

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Thank you Raptor for setting this n00bs straight... Though more than likely, they probably wont be posting here a year from now, will they?

Now back to the OP.

Fatal, you have been running hot over the past 2000 Sngs. As Raptor alluded to, you COULD be the greatest SNG player ever to live, but more than likely, you have been getting very great cards. A - ROI run over 100 is NOTHING. You could take it as me being bitter and jealous over your stats (who wouldnt?), but the bottom line is that variance goes BOTH ways. Run statistical programs on Excel if you like... even a 20% ROI player can have a buyin downswing of 61 during a 1000 SNG streak.... and thats normal variance.

Now, Im going to assume for argument sake that you, infinite long run, are NOT a 20% ROI player at the levels you are playing at. Unfortunately for you, that makes the likelihood of a downswing worse than 61 even more likely.

Im just laying it out for you as it is. Naivete can kill you, esp as the levels you are playing at.

[dfscott]

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Yeah I love it, come to a forum talking about a 19% ROI at the $109's and pretend like you are running bad. That's just the kind of thing the people trying to get a 10% ROI at the $11s want to hear.

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Like me. (ok, it's at the 33s, but same idea.)

[FatalError]

I was the first to admit i was running good and i'm sure my numbers are going to settle out over the next month or 2 into the 10-14% range which would still net me about 15$/per with rakeback...

[curtains]

btw I don't believe that it's impossible to be a 18+% ROI'er at the 109s. I've been maintaining this rate although only over 500 tourneys at that particular level (but was something like 27% ROI over 400 $55s). It's very hard and it's possible you are really only a 10-15% ROI'er or whatever, but I don't think it's impossible to maintain if you are a great player.

[DonButtons]

lol, 500 is nothing though...

My first 500 at the 109s was like 15%, and the 215s it was 27%, next 500 were different...

the point of this post which shocks me, is he only dropped 10 buyins or whatever in 2000 sngs just recently and is depressed about it, lol...cmon

[raptor517]

yes, however to settle back to that over the next 500 or so you will have to break even. when that happens, dont get discouraged. its just variance, and it WILL happen. holla

[Apathy]

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lol, 500 is nothing though...

My first 500 at the 109s was like 15%, and the 215s it was 27%, next 500 were different...

the point of this post which shocks me, is he only dropped 10 buyins or whatever in 2000 sngs just recently and is depressed about it, lol...cmon

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My favourite line was "I'm still well bankrolled"

Ugh...YEAH you have made 44,000 bucks in 109s I sure as hell hope your well bankrolled!!

[MentalCombat]

Wow, heater over 2000 eh? I thought that was a big enough sample to be pretty confident in your ROI. Shows what I know /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Pokerscott]

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Well it finally happened today, over my last 100 SnG's i've lost about 13 buyins at 109's, sliced in every conceivable manner... i've been 8 tabling for a few weeks now so it was due to happen eventually, but i had been running really good (i'm still at 19% ROI over 2000) even during bad runs before i'd posted small profits but today was a slicing like i've never had in SnG's

What do you guys do when you get your brains beatten out, do you take a break or fire on through, dropping down isn't an option... my bankroll is still just fine for this level. But mentally i'm a little frazzled by constant strings of 8-12 OOTM

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Some fun with stats...

-Assume for a moment you are a 20% ROI player at the 100s...

If you have a bunch of 20% ROI players and asked them their worst 100 over the last 2000 SnGs, the median answer would be 22 buy-ins. Having your 'worst run' be only 13 buy-ins is very very unlikely. Not impossible, but still about a 9-1 dog.

My money is on this being a BS post, but hey I guess it could happen that you are both a 20% ROI player (rare) AND a damn lucky 20% ROI player in that your swings are crazy low (rarer)...

Pokerscott (who loves his simulator program lol)

--For those that care this assumes 7% net rake and even 1st/2nd/3rd win distribution to produce 20% ROI... Yada yada yada.

[Voltron87]

is this the same guy who asked whether he should quit his 10$ an hour job after making 20Gs playing SNGs?

[curtains]

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lol, 500 is nothing though...

My first 500 at the 109s was like 15%, and the 215s it was 27%, next 500 were different...

the point of this post which shocks me, is he only dropped 10 buyins or whatever in 2000 sngs just recently and is depressed about it, lol...cmon

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Don't worry, I know that 500 sit and gos is not many. I feel confident around the 3000 mark. Although honestly I feel confident simply because I consistantly see other players make huge mistakes, not because of my ROI. You don't need a large sample size for that.

[DMACM]

Is it really true that sit and goes have less swings than no limit ring games. I have been playing 50NL for a really long time and I cant imagine a 10 buy in drop. Then again maybe cause the limit is so low and the players are so bad theres less swings.

[applejuicekid]

I don't think a buy in for a NL ring game is equal to SNG buy in. However, I have been wondering the same thing.

[augie00]

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all of you people getting mad about 15 buyin drops, get used to it. thats part of multitabling. if you never have a 50 buyin drop, you will never be able to play poker professionally.

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How many tables do you play at once? I play as many as I can on stars (usually gets to about 6-7 at a time during peak hours) and I 50 buyins seems a little extreme. I have lost 20 buyins twice, but 50? wow. How often does this happen to you? My sample size is still very small, about 500 sngs.

[pooh74]

I am shocked by two things here:

1. That OP is worried about a drop in his last 100 SNGS after being 20% over 2000.

2. That other posters are saying he is on a heater and will settle down.

2000 is a GREAT sample size and OP should know that...how he hasnt had some down swings within that framework is beyond me.

If looking at two samples, 1 of 100 and another of 2000, which one is more indicative of one's true play?

I am sure he is not a luckbox and Curtains said it right, the players here who scrape a 10% at the 11s must feel a bit spiteful after reading this.

I know I do...

p

[microbet]

Hmm...Aleo - Slimpickins - any stats guys: What are the chances that someone with a 20% ROI over 2000 games would not have any 100 tourney swing with -ROI.

With similar ROI (at lower buyins) I have pretty much (2 slightly over 100, one slightly under) had 3 such streaks in less than 1/2 as many total tourneys.