The Move-Up Curse

[Costanza]

When I first tried moving up from the $5.50's to the $11's at Stars I hit a big dry spell -- out of the money in something like 10 in a row. I went back to the $5.50's, rebuilt my bankroll and tried again. I went OOTM another 4 in a row, then finally placed 3rd, then won 3 straight and it was smooth sailing after that.

I hit a similar rough patch when I first switched over to Party, but I think that was more due to getting used to the blind structure.

Now it's time to move from the $11's to the $22's, and the same thing happened, except this time it was worse. I was better prepared bankroll-wise this time, but the 15 OOTM streak still stung.

So I regrouped, played some more $11's and took another shot. 4 more OOTM, then a 3rd, now I've won 3 of the last 4 I played. And you guys would have been proud of the bubble suckouts I caught to win the last one!

There's a question in here somewhere...

I realize these are small samples to look at and it could all be variance. Some of it surely is because in this last stretch I managed to run into some monsters when pushing trash late, bigger monsters when pushing monsters late and my biggest monsters had Achilles' heels.

Still, I think the fact that my 2 longest OOTM streaks occurred when moving up a level has to mean something. And I figured this has probably happened to someone else in this forum.

I have the day off on Wednesday and am planning on reviewing some of the tournaments I lost. The first thing I'm going to do is run some of my tournies through Eastbay's SnG PowerTools and look for some missed bubble opportunities. I figured this would be the most likely place I'm losing ground, because I think my problem was playing scared.

I was wondering if someone else had found themselves in this situation, reviewed their tournaments, and found a pattern of mistakes that I should be looking for.

[NYCNative]

I think that there is a normal adjustment that comes with a move to a new level. However, my guess is that you started playing tight after a few games OOTM and that affected your play. That is natural, especially since you described a feeling of deja vu. That might have just been a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Turk]

I had a very rough move fron the $11's to the $22's...very rough indeed, it was brutal. I attempted the move a few times...dropping 10-12 buy-ins, returning to the $11's, building back up just to have the same thing happen again.
Someone helped me with leaks and adjustments through this period, in fact my game was ready for the $22's...but I may not have been. I still continued to slide buy-ins, in fact I went down 30+/- and took a break.
When I returned I started back in the $11's and slowly got a little confidence back, and am now about halfway back playing well in the $22's.
I have heard many others have a tough go of things moving up, and others don't seem to have so much trouble, so what you described is certainly nothing unique or abnormal.

Posting some hand histories couldn't hurt either.

[CaptSensible]

I've been playing the 10 sngs at party. Been doing nicely at them and want to move up to the 20s. The way I've been approaching it is I have to win my entry at a 10 table. or have to be enough ahead in my bankroll to allow myself entry. If I win I can keep playing. If I lose I have to go back to the 10s. If I'm 100 ahead at the 10s I can play at the 20s until I lose that 100. etc etc etc. I don't know if that's the wisest way to approach it but it keeps my bankroll intact and my head together.

[cha59]

Similar things have happened to me at Poker Stars.

I killed the 11's. Moved to the 22's and could not do anything to get into the money consistently. Maybe I didnt play enough games (probably about 25 - 30), but I don't want to continue to try if my bankroll is going to shrink any more. I moved back to the 11's and am killing them again.

Are the 22's at Stars that much harder than the Stars 11's?

Are Party's 22's a lot easier than Stars?

Maybe its what NYC suggested and we're tightening up in situations when we shouldn't? Or maybe taking unnecessary risks worried that we're being outplayed, when we should just play the way we know how to.

[cha59]

I could be wrong but there might be some sense in that. At the very least, your bankroll won't shrink below a set level by losing at the 22's.

[ewing55]

A lot of people say the 10s and the 20s are a lot alike. Could be, but something is sure different! Maybe it's me or maybe it's the 20s, but I just moved up and I'm getting my butt handed to me! It's ugly!

I am/was a 17% ROI over the last 449 10s, and I'm a solid -18% ROI over my first 61 20s. I SUCK AT THE 20s! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

If you are still bad, please look me up at one of my tables. I need all the help I can get. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Best of Luck!

----------------Jeff

[xLukex]

I like to only play 1 table at a time when I move up. I feel until I get used to it I should pay twice as much attention if I'm investing twice as much $$.

[cha59]

Jeff,
Is that at Party or Stars?

[dhende3]

I am pretty sure you are playing scared at the 22s. You have significantly more FE there and you are missing a ton of push opportunities. I don't care what anyone says, the 11s are a lot different than the 22s. Solid players win at the 11s and aggressive players win at the 22s. I don't play the 11s anymore because I view it as a huge crapshoot (too many sheriffs and showdowns). Definitely use eastbay's program to see where you are missing pushes.

[vindikation]

I just moved up from the $10's to the $20's two weeks ago and finished out of the money the first six $20 SnG's I played. After 40 $20 SnG's I was finally able to get my ROI above 0%.

There are adjustments, not huge, but two adjustments I've noticed so far. Much like eveyone says, there's always one less person who busts out early (prolonging getting to the bubble) so playing a little more conservative early has payed off. Also I noticed I needed to have a more aggressive middle game at levels 4-6. Until I started getting more aggressive in the middle stages I kept finishing in 5th & 6th place, waiting for good hands to come...which never did. After raising marginal hands at this stage in good position (KJ,AT,QT,etc) I was able to steal some blinds and started finishing ITM more.

Just my observations from the past 2 weeks so take it for what it's worth.

[Nick M]

a lot of people move up after they're running good...sooooo the downswing can seem like bad luck, curse, no skills(skillz), pokerstars has it out for your measily little BR. Anyone of those weird things the superstitious poker player like me and everyone else on the planet thinks. It's the root of all low self confidence...the button, the curse, the conspiracy. Play through it.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
Solid players win at the 11s

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play the 11s anymore because I view it as a huge crapshoot

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to nit pick but this doesn't make any sense.

Anyway, to the OP, you struggles could just be a battle with negative variance, but I think its probably just a mental thing that is affecting your play. I think it happens with most players as they move up. Just make sure your bankroll is healthy everytime you try to make the jump and you should be able to make it eventually.