borrowed from O/8 - the promo raise

[donger]

I figure SB's flop check means he whiffed. My thinking was that I could jack this turn up and try to fold a 7 or 8?
This might even buy me a free showdown against an overpair. (Opponent is very passive)

Good/Bad/Awful?


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, Button folds, SB calls.

River: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[luckyharr]

The turn raise is a great play. I think you can value-bet the river. SB would not have checked the flop with an overpair but will probably call you down with a lot of A high hands.

[gvibes]

I think I would bet/fold the river.

[StellarWind]

Bet the river and hope he calls with his apparent overcards.

If he folds at least you don't have to show the six.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river and hope he calls with his apparent overcards.

If he folds at least you don't have to show the six.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Bet/folding the river is probably the best line. My risk of being CR'd by a worse hand is slightly less than zero. I wish I had thought of this at the time.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Good thinking. Bet/folding the river is probably the best line. My risk of being CR'd by a worse hand is slightly less than zero. I wish I had thought of this at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
In the very rare event of a checkraise I would call.

You are getting 11-1 to call the checkraise so you need to be good 1/12 of the time.

P(Good) = P(Bluff) / [P(Bluff) + P(Value)]

It's a mistake to say that the probability of a bluff is near zero so the probability of being good is also near zero. It's true that this is a very unusual bluff. But it's also a very unusual way to play a better hand and the river did not help him.

As rare as the bluff checkraise might be, I doubt you will find eleven other hands being checkraised for value to offset it.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a mistake to say that the probability of a bluff is near zero so the probability of being good is also near zero.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Isn't P(bluff) + P(value bet) = 0 in this instance? So if P(bluff) is close to 0, then p(value bet) is close to 1. I don't think I beat any hands that are mistakenly checkraising for value. (a worse 6 for example).

Am I missing this? Can you elaborate? I was just trying to say that against a passive, non-tricky opponent like this, I'm probably going to be sorry I called a CR more than 11 out of 12 times.

[StellarWind]

I meant P(Bluff) to be the probability that his answer to your bet would be to raise a worse hand. P(Value) is the chance that he raises a better hand.

P(Bluff) + P(Value) + P(Call) + P(Fold) = 1

He almost never raises in this situation. P(Bluff) and P(Value) are both very small numbers.

To decide whether you want to call the checkraise you need to compare these very small numbers. Yes, it's true that he almost never bluffs. But he almost never checkraises for value in this situation either. But since we assume that he did in fact raise, one of these very rare things must have happened. Since you are getting 11-1 pot odds you only need one bluff for every eleven value raises.

It only takes one frustrated impulse to raise your bet with AK. It's not common but it does happen.

Playing KK check-thru, bet-call, check-raise is really exotic, especially for a straightforward loose/passive player and with the scary seven pairing on the river.

I think you'll be good a lot more than 1/12 of the rare times when you get checkraised.