Flopped Set Dust Bowl

[USGrant]

Serious drought. I haven't flopped a set in 35 opportunities. I have been counting.

WTF? I've had set droughts before, but never this long. And of course, I get regularly pummeled by opponents who flop their set of dueces or treys against me when I'm holding AK and flop TPTK.

What I want to know is: how many hands do you need to go w/o flopping a set until you start getting into the Probability Twilight Zone?

[job314]

Someone recently posted they went 63 hands (with a pocket pair seeing the flop) thus far without flopping a set. Maybe you two can have a race to see who can go the longest without flopping a set.

[AaronBrown]

Depends how strong your ties are to this world. You expect the set every five or six opportunities. But one time in 20, you'll go 24 hands in the drought, which is the standard statistical threshold for assuming something is non-random. On the other hand, that will happen frequently to an active poker player. Remember, somebody hits a one in a million shot in the lottery every day.

When the streak reaches 37 you're in 1% territory and by 55 it's 0.1%. I think that's when you start hearing Rod Serling say "USGrant has just missed another set and is about to make a wish. . ."

[USGrant]

six more whifs since I posted this. multi-tabling. "once every five to six hands" is probably the funniest thing I've read all week.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
You expect the set every five or six opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... Odds of flopping a set are 8.3:1. The odds of flopping a set or better (full house or quads) are 7.5:1. So you're happy less than 1 time in 8.

I didn't check your other numbers (I'm not picking on you /images/graemlins/grin.gif ), but with these numbers, the OP's streak won't look nearly so bad.

Lately I've been really good at flopping sets, really bad at winning with them. Now THAT sucks.

[AaronBrown]

Let's do this with counts instead of odds. Say you start with 7 7. I think there are 19,600 flops, C(50,3). 2*C(48,2) = 2,256 of them are 7 and two cards other than 7. 144 of those are full houses, so 2,112 give you a set but no boat. There are 48 ways to get quads (the two sevens plus any of the 48 other cards). There are also 48 ways to get trips on the flop, giving you a full house.

[kyro]

Hey buddy,

If it makes you feel any better, I just had a streak where I was 4-tabling the SNGs, and I flopped a set 4 straight times when I held a pocket pair. I think I ended up 7/12 or so for that hour.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[capone0]

Was playing a S+G (11 on party 2 days ago). Guy limps with JJ. Flop comes J34. Guy in the blinds bets out. JJ goes allin and shows. Next hand, he limps again. AJx flop. I have A10 in the SB. I bet near pot. He goes allin again. I was like. Could he have set again. And for some reason I frustrating call since I'm in disbelief he just set again or just hit huge again. Guess what, JJ again. Odds of JJ are what 1 in 144. Odds of set are about 1 in 8. 1 in 1152. Odds that it happens in 2 hands in a row assuming they are not connected is what 1152^2=1327104. But on party, it's common place of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I've set 2 times in a row before, seen someone with quads and have had it 2 times in less than 5 hands. But to set 2 hands in a row with the same hand, just brutal to me, especially since I only had a couple of more chips than him. God, I hate the people at S+Gs that push anything, never know if they have it, or not. Then again I should have easily folded A10. My odds could be wrong, but they should be close, assuming hands aren't linked on party.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Was playing a S+G (11 on party 2 days ago). Guy limps with JJ. Flop comes J34. Guy in the blinds bets out. JJ goes allin and shows. Next hand, he limps again. AJx flop. I have A10 in the SB. I bet near pot. He goes allin again. I was like. Could he have set again. And for some reason I frustrating call since I'm in disbelief he just set again or just hit huge again. Guess what, JJ again. Odds of JJ are what 1 in 144. Odds of set are about 1 in 8. 1 in 1152. Odds that it happens in 2 hands in a row assuming they are not connected is what 1152^2=1327104. But on party, it's common place of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I've set 2 times in a row before, seen someone with quads and have had it 2 times in less than 5 hands. But to set 2 hands in a row with the same hand, just brutal to me, especially since I only had a couple of more chips than him. God, I hate the people at S+Gs that push anything, never know if they have it, or not. Then again I should have easily folded A10. My odds could be wrong, but they should be close, assuming hands aren't linked on party.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is so bad on so many levels.

1) Your odds are messed up and interpreted incorrectly.
2) Party Poker is not rigged.
3) You lost not because you got unlucky that he had JJ but because you played it poorly.
4) Hating sucky players in SNGs is dumb.
5)Paragraphs are nice.

[capone0]

So do the odds for me. What are the odds of getting JJ and getting set.

2nd of all I know I played the hand incorrectly. Did I say I played it well. I just wanted to discuss the fact that the guy got set Jacks 2 times in a row. Please feel free to give me the correct odds.

Don't you see the smily face after I say, common place on party. God, some of you guys are way too super critical. All I'm saying is some people push with any 2 cards. I saw him just push with a set, and thought it would be unlikely that he set again. I never said my play was good, Kyro. I said it was piss poor. Obviously you couldn't garner that.

Whatever. It was mid-game S+G. I had 17 BB which is pretty big. I wasted all my bets. I was in for 4 big bets into now, 8 big bet pot. I thought I could possibly be ahead, but I was obviously wrong. Obviously I'm an idiot, but I find ways to win live and online.

[capone0]

So the odds of getting jacks are 1 in 222. Odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are 11.8% or 1 in 8.4 hands. So the odds of flopping set jacks are 1 in 1865. Is that right? Or am I still screwing up the math. The odds of then getting set jacks two times in a row is that squared with pocket jacks? 1 in 3.47 million.

[AaronBrown]

While it's frustrating to have that happen, it overstates the odds to square them. If something has one chance in 100 of occurring, you don't start counting until it happens once. The chance of it happening a second time in a row is 1 in 100, not 1 in 10,000.

It's true that two in a row will only happen 1 time in 10,000, but if one happens, it's 1 in 100 to be two in a row.

[capone0]

I guess I'm not very good at math. But if two things are seperate. Let's say the odds of flipping heads is 1/2, so the odds of flipping heads 2 times in a row is 1/4 right. 1/2 * 1/2? By the same logic. The odds of hitting a set by the same person, which makes it so interesting. The odds of them hitting JJ set 2 times in a row is the square of each individual thing. I guess my math skillz have definitely weakened since college. Could anyone please give the answer.

[capone0]

I guess I see what your saying. But the odds of a random set of hands happening is what? But the odds of hitting it randomly out of any number of hands is what? Out of a million hands. What are the odds I hit JJ sets 2 times in row. Not what are the odds if I hit JJ set and then hit JJ set again. Do you see what I'm saying.

[AaronBrown]

You're right, but I have a point as well.

For flipping coins, there's no issue. One head = 1/2, two heads = 1/4.

But let's say lots of people flip coins all the time. No one says anything about it, until someone gets 10 in a row. Now you pay attention, and she gets another 10 in a row. The odds of 20 in a row are roughly 1 in a million. But someone was going to get 10 in a row, so that was a certain event. Once you started paying attention, the odds were only 1 in 1,024.

The point is unusual things happen all the time at the poker table. Out of any 200 hands you could find lots of things that had only 0.1% probability of happening. So it's certain that something unusual will happen. Once you notice it, it will happen again with the same probability, say 0.1%. So the odds of something unusual happening twice are really the odds of it happening once, becasue some unusual thing was bound to happen.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's do this with counts instead of odds. Say you start with 7 7. I think there are 19,600 flops, C(50,3). 2*C(48,2) = 2,256 of them are 7 and two cards other than 7. 144 of those are full houses, so 2,112 give you a set but no boat. There are 48 ways to get quads (the two sevens plus any of the 48 other cards). There are also 48 ways to get trips on the flop, giving you a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you disagreeing with the odds I quoted? I'm too sloppy to be a good counter, but I agree with the numbers you listed.

Flopping a set:

(# Flops w/ one 7 but not FH)/(Total # flops)= 2112/19600= .107755 or 1/9.28030 or odds of ~8.3:1, as given.

Flopping a set or better:

((# Flops w/ one 7) + (# flops w/ 2 7's))/(Total # flops)= (2256+48)/19600= .117551 or 1/8.50694 or odds of ~7.5:1, again as given.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
So the odds of getting jacks are 1 in 222. Odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are 11.8% or 1 in 8.4 hands. So the odds of flopping set jacks are 1 in 1865. Is that right? Or am I still screwing up the math. The odds of then getting set jacks two times in a row is that squared with pocket jacks? 1 in 3.47 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the odds of getting 72o one hand and then T5o the very next hand. Do that out for me please.

[capone0]

I said I wasn't good at the math. How bout you do the math, since your so smart. Odds of getting the same set 2 times in a row. All I'm saying is it's a rare occurance for anyone to get it. I wasn't trying to be insulting. I was just pointing out that someone hit it 2 times in a row at a 11 S+G and it was a rare occurance which I don't believe I've since flipped two times in a row before.

I could care less about an 11 S+G. Most times I play 5/10 limit or 10/20 limit or 2/4 NL online and I'm trying to work at my S+G skills, which are poor. 11 S+G is a fun, learning experience for me.

I'm sorry if it doesn't impress you. This is the probabily section and I was just interested in the odds of it happening 2 hands in a row. Obviously I can't answer the question and noone else has supplied me with the answer yet.

[capone0]

And if you see the question mark AFTER I state the answer. I'm not assured of the answer. I know the odds of any flop + people's pockets are quote on quote rare and are all quote on quote one in a billion. I was just amazed at the sequence of events. It's similar to some guy getting quads 2 hands in a row be it at the casino or online.

I was just joking around about the party poker "rigged" reference. Although I've recieved my share of beats on the site and have seen others beats.

For instance, my LAGish buddy who I was watching, had K10, he raises PF to 3, 4 callers. 8910 flop. TAG player bets pot. My friend raises to 60 bucks and TAG player insta pushes after the others fold. My friend calls anyway because he is definitely pot committed although he's already extremely stuck in a "bluff". Needless to say he caught running Ks to the QJ player's shagrin eventhough he knew he was definitely destroyed on the flop.

Needless to say he's in the belief that, atleast recently online, if he plays bad, he makes money and when he plays good he loses (small # of hands). Then again he believes LAGish play is the only way to win big online NL. That's his porgative. Earlier in the day, he lost a 4 way allin, when he flopped the 2nd nuts with 56, on a 789 flop versus A9, 99, 107 at the 100 NL 6 max tables. So it was his progative to win a big pot while being a 97% underdog while losing a monster pot when he was a 48% favorite versus the field (400 dollar pot lost when running 8s hit).

I've seen weird beats on all the sites, and at the casino. Hell I've put weird beats on people who misplayed there hand or played it right. But that's poker. The best hand on the flop is almost never the same best hand on the river. I was only alluding to the fact that many people say online poker is rigged. This "rare" occurance is only one in millions in poker. I was just wondering how often it occurs. Just like I'm amazed (well not as much anymore) when someone has a royal flush because it's a pretty rare occurance, I was amazed someone his set jacks 2 hands in a row. Honestly does that regularly occur when you play? It doesn't for me.

[kyro]

The odds that you get dealt 72o one hand and then T5o the second hand (or whatever hands I said initially) are slightly better than getting dealt JJ twice in a row (only because pocket pairs occur less frequently than non pocket pairs.) Why should you care about this? You shouldn't. Nor should you care about the odds of getting JJ twice in a row.

As for the Party is rigged ordeal. I didn't realize you were joking and I apologize for jumping to conclusions. If I had a nickel for every post about "Party is rigged" I saw, I'd be challenging Danny N. to his HU contest.

[AaronBrown]

No, you're right, I'm wrong. My counts were right, but I divided wrong. I just wanted to check.