BORING

[SippinSoma]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

[partygirluk]

Why did you bet the river?

[SippinSoma]

Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will he fold a better hand?
Call with worse?

I think check-calling &gt; betting here

check folding may be the best of the lot - you are only ahead of AK here.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't this like the story of people who call a river bet with 9-high because they know their opponent is bluffing? Even if their read is right, they're still losing the hand.

Roughly 2/3 of all possible starting hands are beating you. So even if button would raise PF and call to the river with 100% of his hands, you're making a solid value bet for him.

[SippinSoma]

These are TOPesque questions that are impossible to answer without a read. I think button's range here is any 2.

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
These are TOPesque questions that are impossible to answer without a read. I think button's range here is any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Unless you have a read as such you are waaaaaaaaaaaaay out here.

[SippinSoma]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't this like the story of people who call a river bet with 9-high because they know their opponent is bluffing? Even if their read is right, they're still losing the hand.

Roughly 2/3 of all possible starting hands are beating you. So even if button would raise PF and call to the river with 100% of his hands, you're making a solid value bet for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am very interested in how you came up with this.

[S_Perry]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because check/calling makes you a bigger dog.

[SeaEagle]

I put the hand in pokerstove after the river and let villian have all possible hands. Equity was over 63% for villian.

I almost went through the effort of narrowing villian's hands down to possible pre-flop raising hands that he'd call to the river, but since any two cards 8 or better except AK were winning, I figured I could make a decent guess at the result...

[shant]

This is a tough river. I think it's close between bet/folding and check/folding. I think check/calling is the worst.

[sean c]

I think the river bet is bad. I would like to know what hand button calls down our flop c/r and turn bet with that we think we beat? There is no way we bet this river and get called by a worse hand.

[casinogosain]

I disagree. I think in this game you will routinely get called down by A-high. I think a river value bet, being prepared to fold to a raise is the way to go. The people that will bluff-raise you on this board are few and far between. That being said, I tend to check-call/check-fold this river a lot myself, and am working on changing that.

-Ash

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river bet is bad. I would like to know what hand button calls down our flop c/r and turn bet with that we think we beat? There is no way we bet this river and get called by a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that EV(bet/fold) &gt; EV(check/call) although both may be negative.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way we bet this river and get called by a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think Hero is value betting here. He's betting to get a fold out of paired hands that will beat 55 if the opponent checks behind.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is that EV(bet/fold) &gt; EV(check/call) although both may be negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be anal:

You mean to say that the EV on THIS BETTING ROUND, not EV in general.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The point is that EV(bet/fold) &gt; EV(check/call) although both may be negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be anal:

You mean to say that the EV on THIS BETTING ROUND, not EV in general.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to say that, but that is what I meant. I thought it was clear.

[CallMeIshmael]

Man...

I was reading the wrong thread.

(I deleted my comment at the bottom, but the one above is still OK).

(I think this river is a check/fold, btw)

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
(I think this river is a check/fold, btw)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so too.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the read driving your line in this hand then shouldn't you 3-bet preflop? Just curious.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I think in this game you will routinely get called down by A-high.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think you're going to get called down by A-high then this is clearly a check-fold river. You're behind virtually all the time since, unless you think button is PF raising w/ A7 or lower, the only unpaired A he can have is AK.

Check/calling is horrible here. Betting is marginally better since you get some fold equity, but you've represented a made hand by c/ring and betting the turn, and there's no reason for button to think the Q helped you. If he had enough to call the turn, he shouldn't be folding the river.

[SippinSoma]

[ QUOTE ]
I put the hand in pokerstove after the river and let villian have all possible hands. Equity was over 63% for villian.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the question is - do I have more than 13% folding equity? If that seriously is the case, then I still profit Baha, I'll be honest; due to some other table action I did not realize that the Q put 4 to a straight on the board. I liked bet/folding because I thought I was most likely against a steal or overcards.

Betting this river may be -EV, but I think the entire line is +EV.

[SippinSoma]

I do not think 55's PF edge is great enough for a 3-bet to be +EV.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not think 55's PF edge is great enough for a 3-bet to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting rid of MP1 might help out your cause big time, however.

But, if you assume the player isnt going to fold with money in the pot preflop, until proven otherwise, you're probably not making a mistake.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not think 55's PF edge is great enough for a 3-bet to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know having a limper behind you makes it murky but aren't we essentially talking about blind defense here? 3-betting and then betting the flop hoping to take it down has to have more +ev then calling to the river and folding. If it was 5 or 6 handed it would be a clear 3-bet but here I'm not so sure.

[SippinSoma]

This is true. However, as CMI pointed it out, things aren't as clear with a limper.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
So the question is - do I have more than 13% folding equity?

[/ QUOTE ]
That would be the question if villian would raise any 2 cards and play them to the river. In reality, you're behind a lot more than 63% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Betting this river may be -EV, but I think the entire line is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like the flop raise - you should either win the pot or get HU. Unfortately, both the turn and river cards are horrible for you and I think your turn bet is already (marginally) -EV.

[SippinSoma]

I was joking about the first question, although I think it's very difficult to pinpoint how often the average jo goes to the river with UI overcards.

I really think the turn bet is +EV.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think the turn bet is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought about this last night and I decided to bump this thread because this turn bet is a bet that comes up a lot in my play, and I'm sure other aggressive players play as well.

So what happens after you check-raise 2nd or 3rd pair to knock out some players and end up HU with the button? Do you autobet any turn? In this typical hand, you're essentially committing yourself to 2 BBs in order to win 7 BBs so you have to win a fair amount of the time to make continued betting better than check-folding, or in some cases, check-calling.

I believe autobetting any turn is not +EV, and you must analyse the turn card and decide what your opponent has and what he puts you on. In most cases, button will have you on some kind of made hand but not a monster, since facing the field w/ 2 bets on a draw or a monster isn't usually a good play. So let's say he puts you on a single pair.

So in this hand, the T is probably the worst turn card. Granted a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is the best suit, but still the board is heavily coordinated and you have virutally no fold equity. Of the hands that button could have raised PF with, basically none of them are folding.

So you have a situation where you are drawing to 2 outs a lot of the time, and even if button only has overcards, he's going to draw out on you 23% of the time (unless he has AK, in which case he's only drawing out 13%) and you aren't being compensated with fold equity.

If the turn were a 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, you'd have a good bet. As it is, this turn bet is pretty heavily -EV.

[ QUOTE ]
although I think it's very difficult to pinpoint how often the average jo goes to the river with UI overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just a side note that has more to do with the river bet than the turn, but I'd say the average 2/4 joe goes to the river with overcards quite a bit more than he should. But with this hand it pays off for him since every single combination of overcards is beating you but one.

[einbert]

I like check/folding the river.

[gopnik]

nice flop c/r isolation.
good hand

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because people raise a lot of hands from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will he fold a better hand?
Call with worse?

I think check-calling &gt; betting here

check folding may be the best of the lot - you are only ahead of AK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
I like check/folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[SippinSoma]

I agree with most of what you said.

I do not understand why you think my equity decreased on the turn when that T came out. Most combinations of overcards might have picked up a draw, but I survived an entire street. If he has QJo, he'll let me know and I'll dump it immediately.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not understand why you think my equity decreased on the turn when that T came out.

[/ QUOTE ]
So my first reaction to this was to say that it wasn't so much that your equity went down (even though it must have, since your hand didn't improve and the T will improve a lot of hands), but that your reasons for betting the flop and turn are different.

I understand that your planned line was that you'd c/r the flop, and if you didn't win the pot, you'd probably be up against overcards and you'd be able to fold them to a turn bet. Unfortunately, the turn card removed all of your bluffing ability. So now you can't make your bluff bet - if you bet, it has to be because you're betting for value, and I don't think your equity is high enough to bet for value here.

But then I got to thinking about just how much the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif reduces your equity, and I decided it actually reduces it a lot. Let's break down the equity of the overcard hands:
* AK: equity cut by half.
* AQ, KQ: equity essentially the same at about 20%, due to the gutshot
* Anything with a J: equity increased from 20% to about 30%, due to the OESD
* And of course, anything with a T is suddenly a 22-1 favorite.

As a double-check I put this through pokerstove saying button would be playing any pair, any 2 broadways, and any A7 or better, suited or unsuited.
On the flop you have 51.7 equity. On the turn, you have 36% equity.