QOTD puzzle from pokerlisting

[swatkaizen]

This is from an archived QOTD over at pokerlistings.com QOTD, 2 down (http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-question?s=3&w=07). I had trouble following their answer and wonder if someone could explain it better to me.

$15/$30

Your hand in SB:
7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Early player raises, MP calls, both blinds call.

Flop: $120, 4 players
A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You ... check-raise?

Their reasoning .... Someone will probably bet the flop, enabling you to raise. You can then take the lead with your C/R and bet out the turn. Your opponents will draw w/ K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and T /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Charge them the max for trying to outdraw you. The problem w/ betting out instead of C/R is that the big blind might raise and perhaps force the remaining players out of the pot.


My thoughts:
I would reason this is a big pot, and you want to force the other players to fold to increase your chances of winning. You're vulnerable and this flop may be scary enough to be checked around and give someone a free card.

However, let's say the early player does bet, and the two players call with odds. You raise, and everyone calls for odds again.

Now it's the turn. You may lose if a /images/graemlins/heart.gif comes, but if it doesn't and you bet, the other players are getting 9:1 to see the river.

I'm relatively new to poker, so my analysis could be incomplete. I wish I could say something about pot equity and my odds of currently being ahead, so if someone knows how to figure that part out, I'd appreciate it.

Any thoughts? What am I missing?

[meep_42]

There's no possible way to protect your hand here. No broadway heart is folding. Any hand that is folding on this flop will fold for 1 bet.

Also, you get at least half of every bet that goes into the pot on the flop, even in the worst of scenarios:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013948
pokenum -h 7h 6h - kh jd - qs qc - ad qd -- ah qh 3h
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ah Qh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7h 6h 379 46.22 441 53.78 0 0.00 0.462
Jd Kh 203 24.76 617 75.24 0 0.00 0.248
Qs Qc 159 19.39 661 80.61 0 0.00 0.194
Ad Qd 79 9.63 741 90.37 0 0.00 0.096

And your equity only goes up on a non-heart, non-pairing turn. You're dodging /images/graemlins/heart.gifs for sure, but you have plenty of equity to get as much money into this pot as possible because you'll win this much more than your fair share.

-d

[swatkaizen]

Wow, that's exactly what I needed. Thanks.

[belloc]

Meep's answer was very thorough, so I won't try to add to it.

Slightly OT: I hate PF nitpicks as much as the next guy, but this seems important. Are we calling a raise from SB with 76s here? We only have three opponents, and at least one of them likes his hand quite a bit. How profitable is this call? Does the blind structure matter here (i.e., is there a difference if the SB is $5 vs. $10)?