I know that this is +$EV but I am trying to convince my friend

[KyleH186]

He thinks that pushing all in with KK here is +EV chips, but not +$EV. I know that this is incorrect, but he won't believe me, so if soemone can either prove or just confirm it I would appreicate it.




#Game No : 2164290491
***** Hand History for Game 2164290491 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12860724 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Monday, June 06, 12:24:36 EDT 2005
Table Table 13815 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 5: ppcharmed ( $865 )
Seat 6: Grovv ( $800 )
Seat 7: salvationc3 ( $1300 )
Seat 9: oblowski512 ( $1695 )
Seat 4: vcharch1111 ( $785 )
Seat 3: KyleH681186 ( $785 )
Seat 2: JonahdaG ( $615 )
Seat 10: askeew ( $775 )
Seat 8: mrbibbs33 ( $380 )
Trny:12860724 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to KyleH681186 [ Kc Kd ]
ppcharmed calls [15].
Grovv folds.
>You have options at Table 13865 Table!.
salvationc3 raises [30].
mrbibbs33 folds.
>You have options at Table 13981 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13974 Table!.
oblowski512 raises [125].
askeew folds.
JonahdaG folds.
KyleH681186 is all-In [775]
vcharch1111 folds.
ppcharmed folds.
salvationc3 folds.
oblowski512 calls [660].
>You have options at Table 13981 Table!.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 2s, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ad ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3h ]
oblowski512 shows [ As, Qd ] two pairs, aces and threes.
KyleH681186 shows [ Kc, Kd ] two pairs, kings and threes.
oblowski512 wins 1630 chips from the main pot with two pairs, aces and threes.
KyleH681186 finished in ninth place.
KyleH681186 has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2164292507 starts.

[Voltron87]

how would it not be +$EV?

[freemoney]

if you dont realize this is impossible to prove then you are an idiot.

[allintuit]

Seriously dude, you have larger problems in your game than wondering whether KK is +$EV.

[ElTiburon]

My opinion is as follows. If you win the hand, you double up, and from there your in good position but not guaranteed to money in the tournament. In this case, you had a 72% to 28%, meaning nearly 1/3 of the time, your out of the tournament. Winning 1000 chips one third of th time vrs losing 22 dollars? Seems like a rerasie rather than a push is in order. (I'm the friend by the way)

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
My opinion is as follows. If you win the hand, you double up, and from there your in good position but not guaranteed to money in the tournament. In this case, you had a 72% to 28%, meaning nearly 1/3 of the time, your out of the tournament. Winning 1000 chips one third of th time vrs losing 22 dollars? Seems like a rerasie rather than a push is in order. (I'm the friend by the way)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're wrong by the way.

[RobGW]

Run this through the ICM and you'll find out that you are wrong.

[Newt_Buggs]

anyone else reraise to 300-400 to encourage a call or a reraise?

[ElTiburon]

And how pray tell does one come across and ICM?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
And how pray tell does one come across and ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's an introduction. (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/lesson.html)

[Grivan]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a rerasie rather than a push is in order. (I'm the friend by the way)

[/ QUOTE ]

My question is after you reraise, assuming you do any decent amount, and the guy comes over the top all in what are you going to do? From your tone it seems you would recomend a fold because you don't want to risk your tournament on KK.

For your idea to not take chances to work it seems to me that pushing is the best way to not have to see a flop. So, it surprises me that you don't like this approach.

[ElTiburon]

Id push if they reraise, but if you go all in, Weaker hands AJs, JJ, 1010 maybe even QQ fold, so ur up against hands that can either Crush you AA, or hands ur only 1/3 against, where then ur risking ur whole tourney to double up early, and doubling up early is a tactic of the fish. I am in favor of the traping with the reraise.

[Grivan]

Your estimation of what people will call with is a quite a bit to high. Look at the hand that is posted as an example.

[Mr_J]

"and doubling up early is a tactic of the fish"

Very wrong. Any good player will take a shot at doubling up when they have a solid advantage. There are quite a few hands that will call a preflop push. You are only an underdog vs one, and the rest have you as a big fave.

[beeyjay]

If the initial raiser was first in the pot, I probbaly just call sometimes. I think a small, Maybe even minreraise accomplishes the same thing for the most part of shutting out the other players but garanteeing the raiser comes with you. I think a fair amount of the time he even pushes you in preflop which is fine by me.

The guy saying he doesn't want to get all his chips in with KK here is baffling me.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Id push if they reraise, but if you go all in, Weaker hands AJs, JJ, 1010 maybe even QQ fold, so ur up against hands that can either Crush you AA, or hands ur only 1/3 against, where then ur risking ur whole tourney to double up early, and doubling up early is a tactic of the fish. I am in favor of the traping with the reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lower-limit SnG players are nowhere near this tight. You will routinely be called by a range like AK-AQ, AA-55.
I am happy to risk my tourney early to double up on a 50/50 with some overlay.

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
doubling up early is a tactic of the fish

[/ QUOTE ]

lmfao. This makes no sense.

Risking busting out early on a coinflip is debateable. Risking it all when you are very likely a 4:1 favorite is not. BTW, your estimation of your opponents calling standards are way off. I get calls from lower PP all the time. I am not saying that I go all in with KK all the time but it certainly is not a bad play.

[Voltron87]

maybe your friend means your line was not optimal, im trying to give the guy the benefit of the doubt.

[sahala]

To OP-contender: Are you sure you aren't just justifying your viewpoint based on the result of the push and villain's call? oblowski512 made a mistake with that call, even if he was big-stack.

[chopchoi]

You're both right. Pushing here is certainly +EV, but there is a difference between doing something that is +EV, and maximizing your EV. I think that even at $10+1, 75% of the players fold AQ here. While if you re-raised to about 225 more, you will get a call almost every time. Now you have to worry about your opponent flopping an ace and beating you, but that only happens about 1 time in six. Also, there is a chance your opponent will either flop a Q and come out swinging, or will put you on a big ace, and try to move you off of it on a rag flop.

While the push is +EV, I think that in the long run, you win even more chips with a smaller raise.

[lastchance]

Reraise to 300?

Anyone think this is the best line? Obviously, you want to be all in with KK, and this is certainly a +$EV play, but reraising to 300 might bring crap hands along.

[KyleH186]

My feeling was that any hand he feels is good enough to reraise with he isn't going to lay down at the 20+2s. If AQ is a reraising hand for him, its probably an all in hand as well.

I also dont want to give him the chance to get away from a hand like QQ or AK if the flop scares him.

[lastchance]

If you reraise to 300, that's half your stack, almost. If he calls and folds, that's about as good as them being all-in preflop, and if he's doing that with AJ but will fold it to your all-in, then reraising to t300 is certainly better.

I don't know, but I'm just thinking right now. With AA, I probably raise to t300, with KK, I think pushing is better.