Final 2 tables

[IMTheWalrus8]

This hand is bothering me:

UB $20 6-player Max
BB - 600
Ante - 75
12 left
12th pays $50
6th is $175, and up to $1008 for 1st

6-handed
Hero is BB with 22,970 (average stack)
Villian is button with 18,840


Hero is dealt Ks 7s

Folded to Villian, who raises to 1,200

I'm taking this as a blind steal and plan to play back at Villian after the flop. I'd been at his table awhile and whenever he made small raises he would fold if someone played back at him.

Hero calls (3,150 in the pot)

Ts 9h Js

Hero bets 2,500, Villian raises to 10,650.

I have a flush draw, an overcard, and the low end of a straight draw. I put Villian on QJ or KJ, definitly top pair. I'm positive he has me beat right now.

What should Hero do here?

[thetman]

I'd lay it down, but pushing may be a decnt option considering 6th doesn't pay THAT much more than 12th.

[bestcellar]

Yeah I agree. You need to get away from this.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I agree. You need to get away from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013393
pokenum -h ks 7s - kd jh -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 443 44.75 436 44.04 111 11.21 0.504
Kd Jh 436 44.04 443 44.75 111 11.21 0.496

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013392
pokenum -h ks 7s - qd jh -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 413 41.72 571 57.68 6 0.61 0.420
Qd Jh 571 57.68 413 41.72 6 0.61 0.580

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013394
pokenum -h ks 7s - ad ah -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 539 54.44 442 44.65 9 0.91 0.549
Ad Ah 442 44.65 539 54.44 9 0.91 0.451

[bestcellar]

would you risk your tourney on a coin flip at this point? The stack isn't that shallow. I understand your point...he might be committed to the hand with the two dimes analysis, but what if he's up against a straight? A set? A high flush draw? Just because he put him on that range of hands doesn't mean that's what he's actually up against.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lay it down, but pushing may be a decnt option considering 6th doesn't pay THAT much more than 12th.

[/ QUOTE ]

But couldn't you argue that the small difference b/w 12th and 6th is a reason to PUSH, because if increases my chances of reaching the final table.

I ran the numbers and it's a 50/50 proposition.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd lay it down, but pushing may be a decnt option considering 6th doesn't pay THAT much more than 12th.

[/ QUOTE ]

But couldn't you argue that the small difference b/w 12th and 6th is a reason to PUSH, because if increases my chances of reaching the final table.

I ran the numbers and it's a 50/50 proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, it's a 50-50 with those three hands. If Villain has KQ, JJ, TT, 99, JT, T9, J9, Axs, 87, Q8, the odds are much much worse, and nearly all of those hands are playable.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I agree. You need to get away from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013393
pokenum -h ks 7s - kd jh -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 443 44.75 436 44.04 111 11.21 0.504
Kd Jh 436 44.04 443 44.75 111 11.21 0.496

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013392
pokenum -h ks 7s - qd jh -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 413 41.72 571 57.68 6 0.61 0.420
Qd Jh 571 57.68 413 41.72 6 0.61 0.580

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013394
pokenum -h ks 7s - ad ah -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 539 54.44 442 44.65 9 0.91 0.549
Ad Ah 442 44.65 539 54.44 9 0.91 0.451

[/ QUOTE ]

Right - so it's a coin flip, I'm in the money, and winning this pot would put me in great position to make the final table and a shot at a grand.

On the bubble I'm thinking this is a pretty clear fold, but in this situation here I'm still on the fence.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
would you risk your tourney on a coin flip at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a flip unless you think risking 15,000 to win 23,000 is a flip.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, it's a 50-50 with those three hands. If Villain has KQ, JJ, TT, 99, JT, T9, J9, Axs, 87, Q8, the odds are much much worse, and nearly all of those hands are playable.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013395
pokenum -h ks 7s - jd ts -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 474 47.88 498 50.30 18 1.82 0.491
Td Jd 498 50.30 474 47.88 18 1.82 0.509 (same as Td 9d)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013482
pokenum -h ks 7s - 8d 7d -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 453 45.76 465 46.97 72 7.27 0.494
8d 7d 465 46.97 453 45.76 72 7.27 0.506

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013483
pokenum -h ks 7s - 8d qd -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 423 42.73 561 56.67 6 0.61 0.430
Qd 8d 561 56.67 423 42.73 6 0.61 0.570

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013484
pokenum -h ks 7s - jd 9d -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 496 50.10 476 48.08 18 1.82 0.510
Jd 9d 476 48.08 496 50.10 18 1.82 0.490

The only times you are below 40% in this hand are when you are against a straight or a set (39% against a set and 36% against Axs, which probably isn't raising a JT9 board).

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]

It's not a flip unless you think risking 15,000 to win 23,000 is a flip.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1013395
pokenum -h ks 7s - jd ts -- js th 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 9s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 7s 474 47.88 498 50.30 18 1.82 0.491
Td Jd 498 50.30 474 47.88 18 1.82 0.509 (same as Td 9d)



[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what he had (and yes, they were diamonds).

I pushed, he called, and I didn't hit any of my cards.

I may be guilty of results-oriented thinking here.

Looks like I did the right thing.

[locutus2002]

Did you consider playing back BTF? I don't like the call here OOP, but if you think he's on a steal then you might play back immediately.

As it turned out it was a great flop for you. I probably c/r all-in. This gives him a chance to bluff at the pot if he missed his hand, and gives him a chance to laydown the hand. When you bet ATF, he will only play when he has at about 50% chance (Top Pair++), and is unlikely to bluff at the pot with such a scary board and no hand.
As it happened you bet and he raised enough to be pot committed and there is no way he is laying down the hand.

Given the payout structure you should not avoid these 50/50 situations, and should have expected it when you decided to play K7s.

[TaintedRogue]

Villan's all-in screams "I have the best hand, but with the flop, you could end up with best by the river"
You missed the fact that the Q gives you a a straight, so you have 15 outs to his pair of Js, if his kicker is a K, 18 outs if it isn't, or 15 outs against two pair with JT J9 T9 in his hand.
He either has that or overpair or a set.
I gotta call this one. I consider it an Omen when I decide to push out a guy whom I think is stealing the blinds and then the flop hits my hand with 15 outs. I may have 18 outs if he has AJ, or 17 outs if he has QJ.......
And...if he has KQ you still have 9 outs, 8 if his Q is the spade and another 3 to tie.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you consider playing back BTF? I don't like the call here OOP, but if you think he's on a steal then you might play back immediately.

As it turned out it was a great flop for you. I probably c/r all-in. This gives him a chance to bluff at the pot if he missed his hand, and gives him a chance to laydown the hand. When you bet ATF, he will only play when he has at about 50% chance (Top Pair++), and is unlikely to bluff at the pot with such a scary board and no hand.
As it happened you bet and he raised enough to be pot committed and there is no way he is laying down the hand.

Given the payout structure you should not avoid these 50/50 situations, and should have expected it when you decided to play K7s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The PF call is something else I'm not so sure about, but against this opponent I went with this play b/c he was much more aggressive PF, less so ATF.

Them's the breaks I guess.