56s in the small blind -- who calls the turn?

[Diplomat]

This hand arose in a fun 10-20 game at none other than the Holliday Inn in Vancouver... loosy-goosy sunday night.

I'm in the small blind with 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif and have six callers to me. I call, the big blind checks, and we take the flop eight handed. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Flop comes down 5 /forums/images/icons/club.gif T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif giving me a flushdraw and bottom-pair. Considering the number of callers and the odds I'm getting, I decide to lead in and make a pot. (maybe not the best play, but not the worst) I get three calls, then a strong player raises. The cut-off calls, the button calls, I call, and everyone else calls. We see the turn six-handed.

Turn is the Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif . I check, the big blinds bets, the next player folds, the next player raises, the strong player three-bets, the cut-off cold-calls three bets (??) and the button goes all-in for seventy-five (five dollars short of cap). I'm facing 3.75 big-bets to see the river card, and clearly I'm concerned that my flushdraw, even if it get's there, is no good. But if everyone calls, there are umpteen-million bets in the pot, giving me good odds to draw.

Who calls the turn?

Results to follow.

[Diplomat]

After agonizing for about fifteen seconds, I mucked. The river was the 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif , and the river was checked around. /forums/images/icons/frown.gif The button took it down with AJ, for the nut straight. Two others had J9 for the bottom-end straight, and another player had two-pair.

[Dynasty]

You definitely call and bet into the field if you make your flush without the board pairing.

With all those big cards on the board, it's much more likely that players are betting and raising with two-pairs and straights.

[Ed Miller]

I would definitely call on the turn... with all that raising, I would expect straights and two pairs, not bigger flush draws.

I also might have 3-bet the flop with all those players in and a flush draw and a pair, even though your cards are low... you have nine outs to the flush, and a 5 is likely to be good as well... and a 6 might be enough.

[Diplomat]

Thanks for the responses...In retrospect, I probably should have called. I figure there were about 20-24 big-bets in the pot by the river...maybe half the time that my flush makes it there, there is a bigger flushdraw out there. That narrows me to about 10 or 12 to 1...I still should call.

What worried me was the flat cold-caller for sixty...as it turned out, he had the bottom end of the straight (9J) and was making a crying call. I have no idea what the big-blind bet out with. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[M.B.E.]

<font color="purple"> I figure there were about 20-24 big-bets in the pot by the river...maybe half the time that my flush makes it there, there is a bigger flushdraw out there. That narrows me to about 10 or 12 to 1...I still should call. </font color>

I don't follow your math. If you're faced with calling 3.75 bets to win 20-24 bets, your odds are much worse than 10 or 12 to 1.

Also I'm not sure where you got your figure of "20-24 big bets". There were 8 small bets preflop and 12 on the flop; that's 10 big bets right there. On the turn, your opponents are putting in 4x3.75=15 big bets, and if you hit on the river, you'll win at least two more big bets. So you should look at your turn decision as having to call 3.75 bets to win 27 bets. Thus you can call if your odds against finishing with the best hand are 7.2-to-1 or less.

There are 9 out of 46 unseen cards that will make you a flush, but a couple of your opponents probably have sets or two-pair, so if the Qd hits (making your flush but pairing the board), you're in trouble. Also, you think there's a 50-50 chance someone has a higher flush draw. That sounds about right to me. So reduce your outs by half to 4 out of 46 unseen cards. This makes you an 11.5-to-1 shot (just as if you had a gutshot straight draw).

You have a clear fold on the turn. (Well played!)

Notice that this example illustrates why it's so important to raise or reraise on the turn with the nut straight when one of your opponents could have a flush draw.

By the way, I agree with betting out on the flop, and I agree with majorkong that you could have three-bet the flop after the strong player raised.

[Diplomat]

Thanks MBE -- ya, my math was screwed up, thanks for setting me straight -- using Screwed-up-late-night-math to calculate. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

I still think folding was the correct play given the situation that I faced; however, I wonder if my call on the turn would have been appropriate had I three-bet the flop and bet out on the turn? Or three-bet the flop and check-called the turn? (the more likely of the two)

i.e. I probably could have manipulated the pot size on the flop to make my turn call correct.

It happens though. thanks for the feedback.

[Ed Miller]

I probably could have manipulated the pot size on the flop to make my turn call correct.

Don't ever think this way. 3-betting the flop is appropriate because you flopped a big hand, not because you are manipulating pot size.

I've seen people justify raising with a gutshot by saying, "If I raise now, then I'll have odds to call again on the turn, but if I don't, then I won't." That is horrible logic... a bad bet on the flop has inadvertantly made a turn call correct... but overall this player has put too much money into the pot on a weak draw.

You manipulate pot odds to induce your opponents to make mistakes... not to allow yourself to "have odds to chase" because you don't have the discipline to lay down a weak draw.

Having said all that, I disagree with MBE about the turn call. I think it is a clear call... because I don't think it's even close to a 50-50 chance you are against a bigger flush draw. People love to put cold-callers on flush draws... I think because we (as better players) would rarely cold-call postflop with anything else. In my experience, though... cold-calling is much more often than 50% of the time someone calling with a made hand that they think might win, but are worried about.

[AceHigh]

"you think there's a 50-50 chance someone has a higher flush draw. That sounds about right to me."

I'm not sure how you come up with that number. That sounds too high to me. It's unlikely any of the bettors on the turn have a flush draw, isn't it? So the cutoff is the one I would be worried about and wouldn't the cutoff have raised on the flop if he is a good player and had a big flush draw?

[tewall]

With umpteen million bets in the pot, you have EV of roughly umpteen million over 5, which is more than 3 bets, so you have odds to bet. (UM/5 &gt; 3) /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[tewall]

I don't think you'll run into a bigger flush that often (half the time). It just seems that way.

[Rube]

Good odds calculation, however you may want to take into account the fact that the first two players often will not call the turn raise (especially the first player who has to call three big bets cold). So it may be more like calling 3.75 to winning 23ish putting you more at about a 6-1 shot.

I also think that that 50% is too high for a somebody having a higher flush. But even if there is a higher flush against you, it is more likely that the two fives would be outs since the other players could easily have high two pair hands or hands like KJ, QJ, JT or even AK.

[Diplomat]

Hmm, thanks. What would you estimate my expected value to be, if I hit my flush on the river? /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[M.B.E.]

Don't ever think this way. 3-betting the flop is appropriate because you flopped a big hand, not because you are manipulating pot size.
I've seen people justify raising with a gutshot by saying, "If I raise now, then I'll have odds to call again on the turn, but if I don't, then I won't." That is horrible logic... a bad bet on the flop has inadvertantly made a turn call correct... but overall this player has put too much money into the pot on a weak draw.
You manipulate pot odds to induce your opponents to make mistakes... not to allow yourself to "have odds to chase" because you don't have the discipline to lay down a weak draw.

Well put.

[M.B.E.]

<font color="purple">Having said all that, I disagree with MBE about the turn call. I think it is a clear call... because I don't think it's even close to a 50-50 chance you are against a bigger flush draw. People love to put cold-callers on flush draws... I think because we (as better players) would rarely cold-call postflop with anything else. In my experience, though... cold-calling is much more often than 50% of the time someone calling with a made hand that they think might win, but are worried about. </font color>

Okay, maybe the chance you're up against a bigger flush draw is less than 50%. But even if the chance is only 30%, you still have to fold, based on my earlier assumptions and calculations. In fact, my earlier assumptions probably were not conservative enough: in particular, it isn't certain that all five opponents will call, so the pot might not be as big as I had contemplated. Also, I didn't take into account the additional bet(s) lost on the river if someone does have a bigger flush draw and a diamond falls on the river.

Considering those factors, calling the turn is negative EV unless you're at least 80% sure you have the best flush draw.

So I still think folding is correct. One of your opponents might have a made straight with a flush draw, such as Jd-9d or Ad-Jd. Also, someone might have a flush draw with a queen (second pair), such as Qd-Jd. Finally, you can't really rule out one of your opponents having the miscellaneous ace-high flush draw, e.g. Ad-2d. The probability of someone else having a flush draw has to be greater than 20%, even if it's less than 50%.