Year of the Bear or Year of the Bull

[Nepa]

I'm leaning toward the bear side for this year. But if I had some more money to put into this market I would look at the IPP's (independent power producers) pick one or two, MIR DYN CPN RRI EP. The reason that I'm leaning towards there companies is stictly valulation. If they do have a P/E it is under 4 or 5. Anyone have any other ideas?

P.S. I also like the oil services if we goto war and oil prices spike NOI HAL SLB

Good luck in 2003

scary link: http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/markets/detox/10059522.html

[MtSmalls]

If you like the IPP's on valuation, take a look at Edison International (EIX). Ignore the trailing earnings. Its about 7x next years earnings, and only 1.2x book value. No dividend, but you can't have everything.....

[Wildbill]

I have at times invested in EIX, but I would avoid it right now. Their issues aren't valuation rated, they are concerns about regulation and the status of the debts they ran up meeting service requirements. CA is making strides in getting rebates, but seems like they are thinking of stiffing the power companies that were getting screwed in the first place. State is facing such a huge deficit, this outcome looks likely. If so, then EIX is facing years and years of debt service that the regulators could say is their problem, not that of the ratepayers. In all I just decided I don't trust the regulators and the state anymore and as such think you better put in a big fat premium on them. These regulators are hideous, they change the rules whenever something happens and it all is politically motivated by the biggest idiot of a governor who got re-elected because a bigger idiot was his opponent. With the Dems locked up in the state, he might do even more populist things and those will hurt big business badly and utilities are probably the fattest targets they got.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif i have been heavy in mir cpn, and cnp...dumped cpn yesterday...made 38% in 2 months...cnp splitting off tgx.., i am waiting to see effect...mir.i am about ready to sell...but may be 5 bagger if things go well...gl...wb hates the ipp's...he might be right, but i think bush will not let ipp's go down toilet..jmho..gl /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

[Nepa]

I really like MIR myself and also think that It could be a 5 bagger. Price to sales at .11 forward P/E less than 3.

But if anyone is looking at this stock please be advised! that there is about a 20 percent chance that this company goes BK. Do your own DD and Happy trading.

[GeorgeF]

On the income side:
About half of my money is in international bond funds GIM
FCO FAX TEI and vanguard TIPS mutual fund.
I own some mortgage REITS, and some dividend stocks like SGC AMS AEE GLDC VLO BPT BRN and others.

Non dividend stocks I own are BRK CEP and others.

If you are looking for speculations I like troubled companies like DHB and CRY Argentine PC BLX TEO IRS CRESY. I am considering some Israeli stocks too.

I also bought some BEARX mutual fund shares.

[Wildbill]

I don't hate the IPP's, I just don't trust the regulators, especially anything related to CA. Part of the problem is think about the situation. You are taking what were essentially "safe bet" type operations, just plain vanilla cash-flow businesses and now you are making bets on them getting by on questionable cash-flow and regulatory issues. That just makes no sense. A few of the names were growth story attempts, but in the end right now people are betting on them being cash-flow vehicles with the messy issues thrown in. Its a mix-up in investing that I just wouldn't recommend. These investments are good in good times if you need an income portion to regulate your level of risk or if you are in a situation where you need some regular cash dividends to support yourself. I don't see them as good investing ideas purely for price appreciation.