check raise turn and river?

[GivenToFly]

not too many hands on villian here, bout 30ish
38/6.5/1.5

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

River: (11.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB
What does everyone think of my line. turn c/r? just bet out this river? As hand progressed it smelt like AK and I thought the river c/r was profitable. I don't see anyone but a passive checking through twopair. I think against a lag or more agg opp I may bet this river out. Comments?

[WillyTrailer]

There's a pretty simple formula to figure this one out. Figuring out the numbers to put in the formula isn't necessarily the easiest thing to do but if you have some data on your player you could probably make a pretty good guess.

so let's compare the following two expressions:

1)Pr(you're raised if you bet out)*3 + Pr(you're called if you bet out)*1

2)Pr(your opponent bets if you check)*2

so you're really just asking yourself how good your opponent's hand is and how aggro he is on the river.

All of the above is, of course, assuming you're ahead, which is quite reasonable considering how the hand played.

-WT