Overpair vs shortstack

[PokerFink]

Another fairly mundane post by Mr. Pokerfink. I just find that I play differently than the 2+2 guidebook would say, so I'm always curious to see different lines that people take.

My note on the player is "will make some very marginal calls on F/T/R for small bets." My bets in the hand aren't exactly small, but my note indicates that the player is probably not good.

How do you like my play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($99.50)
UTG+1 ($50.20)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($49.25)</font>
MP2 ($42.30)
CO ($131)
Button ($45.65)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($104.40)</font>
BB ($10.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $4, Button calls $4.

Flop: ($16) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, MP1 calls $12, Button folds.

Turn: ($40) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $29</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $46</font>, MP1 calls $3.25 (All-In).

Final Pot: $118.25

[xorbie]

I think you are almost gauranteed to be beat here, but I guess a real donk could be waiting for the turn before he raises his 88/99/TT.

[PokerFink]

What do you think is beating me?

[dtbog]

Looks fine to me -- I'm admittedly not good at getting away from hands against those who are sitting with 50 BB, but I don't see where you could possibly find a fold here.

If you check the turn, the money's getting in anyway -- and if you open for a push on the turn, you're not going to fold out a hand that beats you. Why not bet and let him raise (as you did) -- that way the money gets in whether you are ahead or not, as opposed to only when you are behind.

I don't know about his preflop standards, but I can certainly see him with any PP, missed overs with a spade draw, 78s, a five, or a six... against that range, you're fine.

Hope it worked out!
-dB

[dtbog]

Looks fine to me -- I'm admittedly not good at getting away from hands against those who are sitting with 50 BB, but I don't see where you could possibly find a fold here.

If you check the turn, the money's getting in anyway -- and if you open for a push on the turn, you're not going to fold out a hand that beats you. Why not bet and let him raise (as you did) -- that way the money gets in whether you are ahead or not, as opposed to only when you are behind.

I don't know about his preflop standards, but I can certainly see him with any PP, missed overs with a spade draw, 78s, a five or a six as part of a SC hand... against that range, you're fine.

Hope it worked out!
-dB

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think is beating me?

[/ QUOTE ]

A 6 would be the obvious answer. You said he makes marginal calls.. does he also get agressive with marginal hands? Cuz if not..

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think is beating me?

[/ QUOTE ]

A 6 would be the obvious answer. You said he makes marginal calls.. does he also get agressive with marginal hands? Cuz if not..

[/ QUOTE ]

No idea. I wrote the only note I had on him.

So I'm behind any six and 55. I'm way ahead of any other pair (which is much more likely considering his limp/call of a solid raise), and ahead of a high card bluff or high spade draw. And you think I'm "almost guarenteed to be beat?"

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet and let him raise (as you did) -- that way the money gets in whether you are ahead or not, as opposed to only when you are behind.

I don't know about his preflop standards, but I can certainly see him with any PP, missed overs with a spade draw, 78s, a five or a six as part of a SC hand... against that range, you're fine.


[/ QUOTE ]

And dtbog nailes my thinking on the hand exactly. Your prize: uhhhhh.... my approval.

Anyway, my instincts were screaming "he has a small pair" so I bet small on the turn to sucker him into pushing. Worked out quite nicely, he had 44.

Xorbie, my question still stands though. I'm curious as to why you think I would be behind more often than ahead in this spot when the money goes in. This is a very common and important situation, so I'm open to suggestions.