30-60 Stud Hand: Find a Fold Here?

[Jeffage]

7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.67 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif___brings-in___folds
Hero: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif___raises___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds

4th Street - (5.00 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets
Hero: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls

5th Street - (3.50 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets___calls
Hero: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___raises

6th Street - (7.50 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Hero: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls

River - (9.50 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif xx___bets
Hero: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls

Total pot: (11.50 BB)


Anyone fold 6th or 7th here? What about the 5th street play?

Comments Appreciated.

Thanks,
Jeff

[bigredlemon]

looks like you're probably up against
1. trips
2. straight
3. two pair
4. full house
I can't see myself calling the river here at all, and would have the mouse over the fold button earlier than that. I think you're drawing completely dead by 6th.

[vintage_sara]

Not sure what happended on 3rd street did he raise after the bring in and you reraised and he reraised then you called?

[greenage]

Jeffage completed immediately after the BI and was then raised by the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[vintage_sara]

Jeff,

This is a tough hand all the way around. Not knowing the player...tight aggressive, loose aggressive???, it's hard to say, as well as his perception of you.

If he thinks you are raising with fives then he might be reraising you with any pair over your 5 but maybe lower Jack? It's just hard to know where you are at and that's what makes it so difficult. It's short handed too.

I wish you did in fact have the queen of spades in your hand when you raised on 5th. His bet back into you on 6th indicates that he may think you raised with a pair of 5s and a four flush. He also has the kings, the ace and the jack on board.

If you had decided to bluff the flush..which I am asssuming you were doing on 5th, I would have raised on 4th and then bet and/or raised 5th. Then he has a real tough time betting into you on 6th street and the river without improving to two pair or having a set. That is if you have made the decision to stay in the hand.

If you weren't trying to bluff the flush on 5th street and were just raising with your pocket queens to see if they were best, then I like to make sure 6th street comes off clean. In my opinion it didn't. If I don't think he's a solid player, over aggressive or capable of betting one small pair on the river, then I just call him down.

On this hand, I really would have wanted to get a better line on what I really thought he had early. I probably would have raised on 4th and see if he wanted to go to war again, also setting up the "flush" move. If he does go to war with me then I feel comfortable folding on 5th...out of the hand if he bets into me.

But you decided to make your move on 5th street and I assume you did it to see if you could represent a flush. If I thought this guy was good enough to fold and didn't think he had trips or two pair (I do not believe he has a straight), I might just raise him again on 6th and then if he calls, I could fold the river easily to any bet even if I hit trips. I would also check the river, knowing I was beat.

I hope I explained myself well enough. This is an interesting hand.

[Chris Piekarski]

He could have any pair above 5's, including 66-JJ, so I'm not sure why you don't reraise on 3rd. Personally I would probably play it the same way you did, folding if he reraises you on 5th, except I would also fold when he leads out on 6th. That tells me he either has KKK, or a flush draw with a pair of aces to back it up. But I could be wrong. It's also possible that he puts you on a 4-flush and wants to make you pay by betting his overpair, but I don't think it's worth $120 to find out, and if he didn't have the As he should be scared of your 6th in that case.

[Andy B]

I would probably three-bet on third, but the flat call is fine. What are this guy's standards for raising you on third street? If he needs a big pocket pair to raise, you could in big trouble by sixth street. If he'll raise somewhat lighter, and I would think this would be the case in a four-handed $30/60 game, I would usually call it down and not really like it. This is something I seem to do a lot of, though.

[Jeffage]

I figured if I pounded it again on 3rd, it would just encourgage him to go all the way even more against me. So I decided to wait till 5th to raise unless his board developed really bad for me. I figure I'm going all the way with this hand, the queens may very well be ahead, I can represent a flush or at least a 4-flush and a pair with my board, etc. But mainly I want to charge him the max if my queens are good. I probably would have folded if he reraised 5th. The weird part of the hand is his 6th street bet. It was unexpected to me and seemed to indicate I was in a bit of trouble. But the pot was very large so I called. The river is another tough spot. I only beat a smaller pair or busted draw of some kind (for example if he started with a smaller pocket pair). But the pot was big. Results later.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

This is shorthanded and playing aggro. I don't know this guy too well, but I think he would raise with any hand that beats 5's here or even possibly an ace high 3-flush (though this is less likely). I immediately put him on some kind of pocket pair.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

One more question is...what percentage of the time does my opponent's surprise 6th street bet indicate I'm drawing dead or near dead vs. the percentage of the time it's some sort of blocking bet either with one pair that I'm drawing lve against or a pair I'm beating (such as a pocket pair that didn't improve)? He could conceivably have wanted to wait to see if I caught a 4th spade on board to decide what he should do on 6th (ie: since he's calling, he'll bet 6th just in case I was drawing to spades only).

Thanks,
Jeff

[vintage_sara]

Exactly. That's why I would have tried to go to war on 4th not 3rd. I would flat call his reraise on 3rd. Raised or check raised 4th. It also sets up the "Flush" for fifth. I do think he bet back into you on 6th as I stated because he put you on a pair and a four flush. That's why the raise on 5th is hard with the "flush" unless you are willing to reraise on 6th again when bet back into. I like the raise with the PP better on 6th street then 5th if it comes off clean, which it didn't so then you can just call him down.

I think a more aggressive play on 4th would have given you more information and maybe even won you the pot. Who knows? he might have had queens too? If that's the case then he has you outkicked.

[vintage_sara]

Percentage? Not sure anyone could give you an accurate one. This is short-handed play so it's a little less straight forward. The percentage is different with every player. Depending on my opponent, I would almost always bet back in especially if I think he is likely to have 5s in that spot with a four flush and I think unlikely to have the guts to reraise me again with a four flush. My bet back in is also an information bet. I think this should be a pretty standard move against most opponents but its hard for people to do. If I really think I have the best hand I am not letting this hand go cheap. No free cards, if I am the aggressor and my opponents actions dictate I am in the lead.

[Jeffage]

Well, I'm glad I didn't put the results in the original post b/c it probably would have biased the replies. I won this hand. My opponent started with pocket tens that never improved. He caught a brick deuce on the end. Interesting hand to say the least. His sixth street bet almost got me to fold. Comments on his play and more on mine appreciated.

Thanks,
Jeff

[vintage_sara]

I love his bet back into you on 6th, that's strong poker. I suspected he might have done that thinking you had a pair and a four flush, possibly 5s but weaker then 10s, especially since you didn't reraise again on 3rd or on 4th. Although the bet on the river may seem marginal on his part, he thinks he probably has the best hand and is betting for value in a shorthanded game.

I like everything about your play, except for the following:

As I recommended in my first post, I would have flat called third and raised on 4th or check raised if I fell high to get a better line on what he had and to also possibly set up the "flush" for a later street. If he is at all savvy he is not going to war with you on 4th if he thinks you actually have the flush draw. If he doesn't reraise again, then you actually take control of the hand with him being high, betting 5th and possibly winning it there. You don't want him coming at you with any pair beyond 5th. And even more so, as we know he's collected the live ace live kicker in addition to the king.

If he decides to stay past fifth even with 10s, it's going to be real hard for him to bet 6th.

I also did not like the raise on 5th because you think your queens are the best or to see if they are. When I decide to slow play a PP, then for the most part I like to raise on 6th if it comes off clean. I think that is a much better play, especially heads up. It's trickier too.

I am glad you won the pot! And now that I know what he had, I really like my recommendation on how to play the hand.

My first preference on the hand (raising or check raising 4th) probably wins you the pot earlier, which is actually a good thing. My second recommendation if you decided to slow-play a PP for a raise on 6th street if it comes off clean.

[vintage_sara]

The other reason why the raise or check raise on 4th is good is that if you catch the Ace on 5th or 6th rather than him, he's got to be scared.

[Jeffage]

There's no way he is betting for value on the end. He is betting to get me to fold. There's a big difference.

Jeff

[vintage_sara]

Are you sure? Why would he put you on a hand that's better than 10s? Does he have any reason to believe you would call with one pair that may be worse then 10s?

Just so you know, I would have actually checked and called you with 10s in that spot and lost. In case you hit your "flush" or two pair.

[MRBAA]

I just have to raise 4th here. If he calls and checks to me I'll bet 5th and 6th too if he doesn't catch an open pair.

If he reraises, I'll call and call him down.

Once I play it your way, I DON'T raise 5th when he catches the A. That's a bad card for you, because aces are live and one likely hand for him is a pair with ace kicker. Even if he doesn't have an ace, he now is drawing to an over second pair, so even if you catch another pair, he can beat you with aces up. I don't play anywhere near this high, though.

EDIT: Just read your results, and your opponent really butchered this hand, IMHO. Solid, tight players, as I imagine you are, will be aggressive early with a range of hands in a short-handed game. But once you raise him on fifth, it's time for him to slow down given that all he has is a pair of tens.

[Andy B]

Something I almost said in my original post was that I like the way your opponent played this hand, and that was without having any idea what he held. Your raise on fifth smells more like a pair-and-a-draw kind of raise than a flush. His bet on sixth should look scary as all get-out, and I think he can expect you to fold either there or on the river often enough to make it worthwhile.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

I'm jumping into this rather late, so Sara said most of what I would have said. Another good thing about raising on 4th with your 2 flush board is that if you catch a non flush card and your opponent is high, he might very well bet into you again, thinking you were trying for a free card with your 4 flush. Then you can raise again, and you get an extra small bet (and more confusion) as compared to just calling on 4th. This makes it look like you have a pair and a flush draw, so if you catch a 3rd spade on 6th, he might fold, which you'd like.

I also agree that his bet on the river with Ts is not a pure bluff. Many people (maybe not you) would make a crying call with 9s or 7s on the river. I like the way the opponent played it on all streets besides 5th. At that point he is very likely to be behind you (a pair and a 4 flush is a slight favorite), plus on the few time he is ahead, you will probably be induced to bluff any way with your scary looking board. So I'd check and call 5th and bet out on 6th when a non spade comes. I'd probably mix it up on the river; checking and calling most of the time, betting and folding to a raise sometimes, betting and calling next occsionally, then rarely checking and folding. The actual percentages would be heavily influenced by mine and my opponent's table images and history.

Regards,
Carlos

[somapopper]

I love villans bet on 6th. It screams trip kings, and a thinking player will fold with your holdings at least 50% of the time (unless they know how crafty villan can be, but still). I don't think he's very afraid of being reraised here because he rightly doesn't put you on the flush, and you were certainly betting if he checked, so he gains huge equity without really risking very much. Plus, any high card and he beats you if you brick on the river. He can bet his two pair if he thinks he's still ahead and you're a lot less likely to fold the unimproved qs then if he called 6 and bet 7. If he checks 7, you're afraid of being checkraised right? Maybe you still go ahead and bet on the end, but the bet on 6 just throws you the hell off.

At any rate, I wouldn't want this guy at my game.

edit: that said, the bet on the end seems to me like a desperation bluff (and a bluff checkraise would be disasterous here)... most players are calling that 19 out of 20 if they called 6, and he can't honestly think he's ahead here.

What would you have done if he had checked? I'm almost sure I would have checked behind, but what does he checkraise with here, anything other than a boat?

[Jeffage]

I agree that this guy's 6th street play is very good. But I don't understand why everyone's sold on his call of my 5th street raise (which is pretty much the crucial point of this hand). I am certainly representing a buried big pair and it likely includes 4 spades as back-up. How does a pair of tens compare to a likely bigger pair as well as a 4 flush with 2 cards to come. You know I don't have the 4 flush b/c you've seen my hand, but I think it's realistic I have a pair and spades. I guess it's possible my opponent believes I have a 4 flush only (since I didn't splash back on 3rd or 4th). But if he believes that, why bet the end? If I hit, I raise...miss, I fold. Just some thoughts...

Jeff

[vintage_sara]

Very good point about the second possible raise on 5th with the "brick" if bet back into. I didn't articulate it but I was thinking it. This is such an excellent hand to analyze and there was a lot to consider.

Although I agree that the "tens" should have checked 5th and let Jeff take a stab at it and bet back into him on 6th if a brick comes. I think the check allows this guy to manage the pot size a bit and also looks dangerous that he checked an ace and called and then bet back out on 6th. If I am him I wouldn't necessarily credit my opponent with a bigger pair, especially one that I haven't played with. Jeff said later that he didn't really know the guy but the game was short handed and aggressive. The tens had the j and A in his hand by 5th so not out of the question but it's harder to put your opponent on kings, queens, jacks or aces given the action so far. Then he also catch the ace. Hmmm...It's a tough one. That's why I think it was more of a value bet vs. a bluff. Jeff did in fact call with a lone pair, it just wasn't the pair he expected.

This was fun. I think I am now addicted to posting...I guess that means that I will make less money as I will have less time to play. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[vintage_sara]

Actually, 5th (A) is only his first over card. I have played this high when I used to play in a casino. Now I live in America's heartland, where the games are low limit and I can make more playing four games online in my pajamas, watching the bachelor.

My standard is 20-40 live with some 30-60 and 40-80 when the game is good, especially if it has a nice tight structure. I haven't played higher than that.

I disagree with your reasoning why not to raise on 5th. You can't be scared just because your opponent catches a lone ace. If he doesn't catch the king on 6th or an open pair and bets out, I would raise with my queens in that spot if I had decided to slow play it. Might look like I trapped him with a flush, hit a set or have at minimum two pair. It's nice to get someone to toss a hand on 6th when they might be correct to call.

Sometimes when I am up against a total "wackjob" and that is a very technical poker term, I just call him down and let him bluff everything off. Especially, if I think my aggression will make him toss his hand. But, that is not relevant to this hand and not something I recommend doing. But it's fun sometimes to call someone all the way down to the river and have them thow their hand in the muck even before seeing yours. And after their cards officially hit the muck, you toss yours too so they can't see them. I miss that part of live play. Maybe I am "evil."

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]

This was fun. I think I am now addicted to posting...I guess that means that I will make less money as I will have less time to play. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time I spend an hour writing and analyzing 2 hands I try to tell myself that I am learning something, so I am actually taking a short term pay cut for long term benifit. But watch out...posting can be more addictive than playing poker...I just stayed up all night last night reading these stupid forums:-)

-Carlos

[MRBAA]

Fair enough. This is another reason why raising fourth makes the hand easier to play. My point was that an ace has two ways of being a bad card IF your opponent was semi-bluffing with a low pair, ace kicker he now has aces up. That's not all that likely, but it's possible. But if he just has some other pair (as he did), the live ace gives him three additional outs to a two pair that can beat any two pair you can make (except if you catch running aces). So the value of the raise really depends on how often you can get your opponent to lay down here. I play a fair bit of short-handed online, and have played a bit of it live, and this pot is already big enough that I'm not likely to lay down to a raise with a pair here, getting roughly 8-3 to call down.