"Flop Equity" with 99

[DavidC]

Say I'm in MP2, and there's three limpers to me. The last one is respectable, and the first two are loose.

Is the standard play here to raise?

Also, say I get one cold-caller, one blind caller, and the three callers call (6 to the flop)... 5:1 is pretty good odds to get for your set, but I'd be really interested in knowing what the likelihood is that I will flop the best hand out of the field of 6 players.

--Dave.

[cold_cash]

In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome! Thanks man.

Where do you find out about stuff like this?

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Cold, how is 99 (and 88?) doing for you UTG with a raise? They weren't doing so well for me. I made more money by limping both of those.

Seems to me in a loose game you're going to get 2 or 3 callers to an UTG raise which is where you don't want to be with a medium pair. Whereas if you limp you can get more callers to help with your set odds. Plus, you can dump them easier if overcards hit the flop.

It would be different in a tight game though where everyone folds up to the blinds with an UTG raise. In that game I'll raise 77 on up UTG.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)
...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Cold, how is 99 (and 88?) doing for you UTG with a raise? They weren't doing so well for me. I made more money by limping both of those.
...

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your sample size(Instances of 99 and 88 in UTG being played each way)?

[ QUOTE ]

Seems to me in a loose game you're going to get 2 or 3 callers to an UTG raise which is where you don't want to be with a medium pair. Whereas if you limp you can get more callers to help with your set odds. Plus, you can dump them easier if overcards hit the flop.

It would be different in a tight game though where everyone folds up to the blinds with an UTG raise. In that game I'll raise 77 on up UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

[shadow29]

Yawn.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

563,881 games 16.734 secs 33,696 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 26.6151 % [ 00.26 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 14.7049 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 14.7194 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 14.6808 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 14.6486 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 14.6311 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }


---

[cold_cash]

My PokerTracker databases are kinda out of whack right now, so I only have one that's filtered to limit and stuff.

That one has about 35,000 2/4 hands in it, so not a very big sample, but:

I've hand 99 UTG 12 times, and raised 10 of those, winning an average of 1.2 big bets per hand.

I've had 88 UTG 8 times, and raised 5 of those, winning an average of 6.1 big bets per hand. (I must have flopped a whopper somewhere in there.)

These stats are meaningless, I realize, but I didn't want to ignore you. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I'm pretty sure that for in micro-limit databases my PFR with these two hands first in would be a little lower because the games were undoubtedly looser.

Still, I think you'll have at least a small edge (with 99, especially) no matter what position or limit you're playing.

I'm also not saying you should always raise, but you also shouldn't always limp.

If I'm not mistaken there's a passage in SSH that talks about these two hands specifically, where Ed gives us a guideline for when to do what.


If I can get my other databases filtered and running I'll post a bigger sample from the .50/1 and 1/2 games.

[AdamL]

[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you need to do anything special post-flop with 99 after raising preflop? I imagine it would require a lot of protection.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)
...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Cold, how is 99 (and 88?) doing for you UTG with a raise? They weren't doing so well for me. I made more money by limping both of those.
...

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your sample size(Instances of 99 and 88 in UTG being played each way)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Admittantly small but I think the loose/tight game principle is sound. Since Cold is playing 2/4 it would make more sense for him to raise them UTG than for me, who is still playing .50/1. Although I've run into my share of tighter tables at Party .50/1 lately.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
These stats are meaningless, I realize, but I didn't want to ignore you. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your honesty. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

In short, we'd have to have a huge sample of hands to make this an accurate reading (like 300-500k hands, seriously, each way, 1 million total).

[ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that for in micro-limit databases my PFR with these two hands first in would be a little lower because the games were undoubtedly looser.

Still, I think you'll have at least a small edge (with 99, especially) no matter what position or limit you're playing.

I'm also not saying you should always raise, but you also shouldn't always limp.

If I'm not mistaken there's a passage in SSH that talks about these two hands specifically, where Ed gives us a guideline for when to do what.


If I can get my other databases filtered and running I'll post a bigger sample from the .50/1 and 1/2 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take a peek around for this. I'm in the PF section right now,l but I've been playing right now rather than reading. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you need to do anything special post-flop with 99 after raising preflop? I imagine it would require a lot of protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I don't bloody know how to do it, yet. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you need to do anything special post-flop with 99 after raising preflop? I imagine it would require a lot of protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's often times a difficult type of hand to play, especially out of position. This is what fuels the raise/limp debate, if you ask me. If you've GOT position, raising becomes a much more attractive alternative. (If you can't figure out why this is, you'll figure it out after you've been in each situation enough times. Being in position is what makes the world go 'round.)

If I'm first in on a loose table and raise, I don't mind if I get 3 cold-callers and the big blind to come along. If I flop a lunker I'm probably going to win a huge pot; if I whiff or the flop comes down ugly I'm probably beat. (If I've raised IN position after a bunch of limpers, I've got more options; a free look at what's likely a 22:1 shot, for instance.)

If I only get one cold-caller and the big blind, that's fine too. I likely have the best hand and I'm going to have position on one of my opponents.

The first scenario is usually much easier to play, because if you've got 4 opponents and the flop comes KJ4, things are pretty straightforward.

The second scenario is more difficult because even with that flop there's a much better chance you have the best hand. This is when you have to play poker.

Although one situation is easier to navigate, both are profitable. Figuring out how to play the second scenario is the reason why there are 1,000 poker books out there.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In most games I usually raise 99 pre-flop regardless of my position or the number of limpers. (Playing it out of the blinds is a little different though.)

Limping is probably fine is certain spots, but I like to raise. Also consider your position and whether or not raising will allow you to buy the button or maybe get a free card at some point.

You'll flop an overpair w/ 99 about 20% of the time. (But It may not be the best hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you need to do anything special post-flop with 99 after raising preflop? I imagine it would require a lot of protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's often times a difficult type of hand to play, especially out of position. This is what fuels the raise/limp debate, if you ask me. If you've GOT position, raising becomes a much more attractive alternative. (If you can't figure out why this is, you'll figure it out after you've been in each situation enough times. Being in position is what makes the world go 'round.)

If I'm first in on a loose table and raise, I don't mind if I get 3 cold-callers and the big blind to come along. If I flop a lunker I'm probably going to win a huge pot; if I whiff or the flop comes down ugly I'm probably beat. (If I've raised IN position after a bunch of limpers, I've got more options; a free look at what's likely a 22:1 shot, for instance.)

If I only get one cold-caller and the big blind, that's fine too. I likely have the best hand and I'm going to have position on one of my opponents.

The first scenario is usually much easier to play, because if you've got 4 opponents and the flop comes KJ4, things are pretty straightforward.

The second scenario is more difficult because even with that flop there's a much better chance you have the best hand. This is when you have to play poker.

Although one situation is easier to navigate, both are profitable. Figuring out how to play the second scenario is the reason why there are 1,000 poker books out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your contribution. Good stuff.