Implied odds conundrum with A5s on the turn

[ClaytonN]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero....?

1) What should hero do?
2) Let's say Hero has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. What should hero do?

[iNsChris]

9 flush + 6 OESD(subtracted 2 for flush)
Undiscounted = 15 2.1:1

Although im sure some are counterfitted/in their hands. But i call

Implied odds look nice.

[istewart]

Call.

[benkath1]

I may be a psycho maniac, but I 3 bet the flop and lead the turn. If capped on the flop then call turn. If it's 2 to me on the turn, then I'm worried. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

edit: Still learning. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ClaytonN]

thats overaggro thinking. remember, you have a draw and 1 over. Not like you have a monster.

The reason for betting this out is to set the tone of having the lead in the hand, while at the same time hoping to get raised so you'll have odds to call on the turn should a blank hit.

[Fantam]

1) Hero should call. You have 9 outs to the nut flush. 3 outs to the bottom end straight and another 3 outs to a slightly better straight.

Even if you only value your straight outs as 3 in total, that gives you odds of ~ 3:1 to make a winning hand and the pot is currently offering you ~ 4:1.

2) Hero should still call. You now only have the 9 outs for the nut flush, so it appears that your odds of making your hand ~ 4:1 are about the same as the odds which the pot is offering you.

But there is a decent chance that UTG will also call the turn raise as he is also probably drawing and called the flop raise. Also there is a reasonable chance that you will pick up another bet or two on the river if you make your hand, and UTG and Button make crying calls.

So the implied odds that you are receiving for making your hand are now ~ 5:1 making your call profitable.

Just in passing, you were also receiving the same implied odds with the first hand, so that was just making the 1st decision to call even easier.

Hmm that was careless. I forgot about the A being an overcard. LEAK! LOL. OK that makes these calls even easier. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Kumubou]

My question with this hand is what is the gameplan if you spike an Ace on the river? Without reads, I would not even consider them as outs -- UTG woke up on the turn, and the button ain't never scared. I do not even know if your straight outs (or all of them, anyway) are any good. I would give ~2-3 outs for the straight (a 4 would put you in an okayish position, losing to T9 and 59, but spiking a 9 would not be all that great).

Regardless, you need to call. The pot odds are close, but with your strong draw and the given action, any deficit in calling now should easily be made up on the river.

-K

[ClaytonN]

Ace is likely a dirty out. I check/call on river if I hit an ace. If its 2 bets to me when it comes back, easy fold.

[Fantam]

Why not bet the river if you hit an Ace and fold if raised?

Value bet to gain extra bets when you are ahead and get called, but only lose same amount as checking and calling when you are behind theory ? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[detruncate]

Hero calls in both cases -- they're really not that different given the dubious nature of your straight outs. You'd need to collect a few bets on the river if you have to put in 4 on the turn (13:4, ish), but a turn cap isn't going to happen all the time... or even the majority of the time, probably. You don't have odds to raise, and it's not going to do your implied odds any favours -- with the striaght possibility on board, disguising your hand doesn't do you any good unless someone else has completed it (in which case you often get capped), and is likely to get you checked to on the river.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
hoping to get raised so you'll have odds to call on the turn should a blank hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I don't understand; are you saying that you would want to be raised whether or not you have the requisite callers to pump your draw for value, so you can call in the bigger pot later? Am I misreading it, or do you want to put money in on the flop just for the purpose of justifying a turn call?

Hoping to put in earlier money unprofitably (getting raised) in order to make a profitable call later on seems very illogical to me.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
thats overaggro thinking. remember, you have a draw and 1 over. Not like you have a monster.

The reason for betting this out is to set the tone of having the lead in the hand, while at the same time hoping to get raised so you'll have odds to call on the turn should a blank hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you'll have odds to call the turn? This doesn't even factor into it. We're not folding pre-river in all but the most exceptional circumstances.

You bet this hand on the flop because it's probably going to be for value (or close to it) given that you have 4 opponents, and also brings the possibility of folding better aces and/or setting up a turn steal.

We might have odds to 3-bet the flop for value, but it's slim at best with only 2 opponents. We also don't want to push out UTG, who would be facing 2 more bets with the possibility of a cap behind him. Just call the raise when it looks to be 3-way unless we have something else going for us (like position, for example... in which case we'd be happy pushing a close to neutral EV situation for a free card sometimes).

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hoping to get raised so you'll have odds to call on the turn should a blank hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I don't understand; are you saying that you would want to be raised whether or not you have the requisite callers to pump your draw for value, so you can call in the bigger pot later? Am I misreading it, or do you want to put money in on the flop just for the purpose of justifying a turn call?

Hoping to put in earlier money unprofitably (getting raised) in order to make a profitable call later on seems very illogical to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct in your thinking Redd. Your happiness does not solely depend on someone raising you - the raise can be great and it can be terrible. If the player immediately to your left raises you and everyone folds, are you happy "that you might have odds to call later?" That same person could raise and everyone could call two cold. Then you'd 3-bet for value. It depends, and the statement that you hope it gets raised so you'll have odds to call is, like you said, illogical.

And Clayton, stop trying to find ways to fold 4-flushes. If you never folded them in micro limit games, you would hardly be making a mistake at all.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]

You're correct in your thinking Redd. Your happiness does not solely depend on someone raising you - the raise can be great and it can be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's correct. I should have been more precise in what I was trying to say. You've got a lot of equity in the hand I was describing, so betting takes care of that.

At the same time, a raiser in MP or LP isn't nearly that bad, as you'll then have odds to call your flush flush on the turn.

This is the closest I've ever come to folding a four-flush. Usually not close. I cold called, and it was called behind me. The river hit a diamond, and it was 3-bet three ways.

The turn raiser had QQ...

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
thats overaggro thinking. remember, you have a draw and 1 over. Not like you have a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. leak plugged.

[Siegmund]

As others have said, the 9 flush outs alone are enough to justify a call if the turn will get called around, and are close to enough even if it gets capped.

After that turn, you've gained 3 more playably clean outs, the fours. I count nothing at all for aces, and barely anything for the nines. I suppose if an ace comes I have to put in one chip on the river but I don't like it.

Only difference with A2s is that you have a clearer picture of where you stand, and you won't have to play mind games if a straight card comes and you try to figure out if you're beaten or not. A2s is the easier hand to play here, though it is just a tad less likely to win.