Small Stakes Bluffing

[IGMorton]

I have a really big problem folding hands when i think an enemy is bluffing. I know that in full ring small stakes (2/4 - 5/10) people rarely bluff. I trust Ed Miller's adivce that bluffing is rarely effective vs. calling stations, which i follow.

However, all the literature i read (mostly Jason Pohl and HEPAP), and the agressive styles of posters here led me to believe that people were much more agressive in 6-Max. At the 2/4 and 3/6 levels (i don't really have enough experience to judge 5/10), i do occasionally see people bluff with nothing. but, it's hard to know how often that is really happening. This frustrates me so much that i end up playing the river-cop far to often. Currently i'm running 40% WSD and 48% W$SD (a mix of both 5-Max and 6-Max with some 4 handed and a little 3 handed play).

In general, what percentage of the time are small stakes 6-max players cold-bluffing (not a semi-bluff flush draw or OESD) at the various levels? A few scenarios that give me trouble:

1. the board flops all of one suit. what percentage of the time does a guy on the button take a stabb at the pot after 2 players checked to him?

2. the board flops 2 of a suit. 3 players (myslef included) see the turn after 1 flop bet. the turn is a blank, but there is 1 better and 2 callers. the river is the 3rd of the flop suit. how many cold-bluff here?

3. there is a raise preflop and 3-4 players see the flop. the flop has little action (1 raise and a couple callers). then the turn pairs the top board card.

4. the flop is rainbow rags like 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif. What percentage of guys with nothing but overcards shoot at this pot?

[cartman]

In my opinion, I think if you never assumed your opponent is on a stone bluff (except sometimes heads up) you would do just fine. Some players are exceptions, but I would make sure that I saw them do it a few times before I started to count on it. Keep in mind, that the ones who will often stone bluff also usually bet all of their pair or better hands too. That means that even he will have a little something more times than not when he bets. Play tight and punish your opponents when you have something. Let someone else do the bluff catching.

Cartman

[IGMorton]

thanks.

so, say i have top pair, decent kicker on a 3 handed flop.

in general, if 3 flush cards are out (and i have no backdoor flush draw), the board pairs a face card (not matching my pocket cards), or shows 4 to a strait... should i usually fold to unexpected raises?

[cartman]

I think I misunderstood your original post. I thought you meant how often are they betting or raising with absolutely zero. You will often get raised or checkraised on the turn when the board pairs or when a 3rd flush card hit and sometimes just because your opponent thinks you don't have anything. Many opponents love to bluff at these boards to represent trips or a flush, even if they don't have it. The higher the stakes you play, the more likely your opponents will probably be to be bluffing or semibluffing I think. Usually you should not fold your top pair to a raise heads up. 3-handed is a little more complicated. The raise is also more likely to be legitimate when there is a better and a caller and then your opponent raises. That is because for a bluff to be successful, he must count on two opponents to fold and therefore he is less likely to try it which means when he raises it is less likely to be a bluff than it would be heads up. Learning when to fold to turn raises is a crucial skill that will make a HUGE difference in your long-term level of success. It is of course widely opponent dependent, but I think against a typical or unknown opponent you should credit a turn checkraiser with at LEAST top pair good kicker. If you put him on that hand and count your outs if you are behind and do the math on the pot odds (don't forget the implied odds), I think you will be approximately correct with your decisions. I would assume this until I see an opponent pull this move with a weaker hand and then adjust accordingly. I'm sorry this got so wordy. You can feel free to PM me if you have more questions. I hope this helps.

Cartman