A simple NL decision with QQ but what if I had KK?

[ohkanada]

Playing a Pot Limit tourney last night on Pokerstars. We are down to 14 players (7 on each table and 9 get paid) when this interesting hand occurs. I have just raised the pot 2 hands in a row and won without any callers.

I have 13k and am in 6th/7th place. Blinds are 400-800.

UTG I find QQ and raise the pot for the 3rd time in a row. I make it 2800. Folded to button who raises all-in with 6k. SB re-raises all-in to 11.5k. BB then re-raises all-in to 14.5k.

I muck with only a bit of thought.

2 questions and assume no maniacs in the crowd.

1) What were the opponents hands?

2) What to do if I had KK?

Ken Poklitar

[sdplayerb]

I still fold the KK, as tough as that is to do.
The last two could only have AA, KK or AK. Your having KK would mean either one is 40% likely to have it. And with both, almost definitely the case.
(i don't know your chip position, but if low, then maybe QQ for the first, but this is hypothetical).

Even if there isn't AA, you have around a 50/50 shot to win (worth it), but most likely up against AA. The final raiser has to have AA or KK.

Interesting question you had there.

I had a similar one on a final table, two big raises before. I called and played down my KK to a check raise post flop with Q on the flop. Tough, but with good players the AA is too likely that many handed.

SD

[Bozeman]

Hmm. Let's look at weakest possible holdings if your table is a bit loose. Suppose the button has AT, the sb figures you are stealing, and button doesn't need a great hand, so pushes with jj. The bb needs at least qq,ak,kk,or aa here.

Against the bb, you are ~50-50 against 1 hand, a 7-3 favorite over 6 hands if the button has an ace, a 4-1+ over 6 hands, and 1-4 down against 3 hands. So if it were heads up, you'd have $2800 to lose by folding and 63% * 13,400 - 37% * 13000=$3632 to gain by calling.

However, with the other two weak callers, you will gain greater than $8K on average the times you win, so you expect to make a far amount (~8.5K) on this call against loose players.

I would still fold if 10K was a 5th place stack or better.

Again, this estimate is for roughly the best possible case, so if few of these players are wild, a fold with KK is in order.

Unfortunately, if the big blind will only do this with AA, KK, or AKs, you are at least a 59-41 dog against him, so you stand to make at best .41*21400-.59*13000=1104. And if he will fold anything but AA, KK you are in serious trouble.

Does anyone instead think that the bb may do this move with a weaker hand since he out stacks the all-in players? Do the button and sb need better hands? Will some players make these moves with medium pairs?

Craig

[angelo alba]

This is the third hand in a row you've raised and won without any callers.

Perhaps they became maniacs??

BTW did it go to the river, and if so, what were their hands?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Tough spot Ken. The 3rd raiser, and the fact that he covers me, convinces me that at least he has a real hand, and it should be AK/QQ *at worst*. However, the final decision comes down to what you know about these players. If you know nothing, QQ is a clear fold, and KK a tough but probably correct fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ohkanada]

The button raiser had JJ. The SB all-in raiser had AA. The BB all-in raiser had AK. Board ended up Ten high and AA took a big pot.

The only questionable play would be the BB. Seems to me that AK is shakey at best based on the raises so far.

I am glad I had QQ and not KK. Not sure if I would have folded or not. But KK seems like a close fold.

Ken Poklitar

[ThePinkBunny]

KK should an automatic call for everyone except an expert player.

D

[Myrtle]

Ken,

Call me a wimp, BUT, given that you had just raised the pot 2 hands in a row & had won uncontested, I think I would have limped in, given the situation that you have described.

Perhaps it's because I just HATE QQ in NLHE tourns, but I think that the chances are (given the nature of play in a NL tournament at this stage) that someone is going to look you up on your 3rd raise. More than likely you will not get the respect that your UTG raise should get because of this.

Had you not raised the prior 2 hands, I have absolutely no problem with your play.

Given what actually happened, I think mucking the QQ is the correct play for sure.

In any case, if I limp with that hand in that position after having raised the 2 hands prior, given the ensuing action, I can let it go without any regrets.

My thinking (right or wrong)?:

· You're in good chip position. Why blow off a potential money finish with such a problematic hand?
· The button raise doesn't bother me all that much, but both subsequent raises tell me that I'm almost for sure up against AA, KK, Aks & I don't like my QQ at all.
· With 3 allins now, it is highly likely that at least one (& probably 2 players) are gone after the completion of the hand, leaving 12 players and you with still a good sized stack.

As for your 2nd question: what about KK in same situation………Groan!! Given my prior actions in 2 previous hands, I make the standard 3-4x BB raise. I've got to be honest and say that I'm probably going to lose my stack in that situation. I guess that I'm just not good enough to lay that hand down.

Comments?

[ohkanada]

I think the fact that I just raised the prior 2 hands, makes it more imperative to raise again with a premium hand. As you said I am more likely going to get played against and I am perfectly willing to put my chips up against someone who thinks I am weaker than I am. If I can double up it puts me into great position for a top 3 finish.

I am not a fan of limping with QQ in PL/NL. It is scary enough with overcards so I would rather have 0, 1 or 2 opponents!

Ken Poklitar

[ohkanada]

D,

I suspect all but experts would call with KK. I suspect I would although I wouldn't like it.

Why do you think it should be an automatic call for all but experts?

Ken Poklitar

[Myrtle]

Ken,

That's what makes this such a wonderful game, eh?

"I think the fact that I just raised the prior 2 hands, makes it more imperative to raise again with a premium hand."

On this point, I hear you loud and clear, but I guess my anecdotal experience with online play (and the vulnerability of QQ in this situation, IMO) brings out the conservative play in me. I just can't shake the belief that (given your 2 prior raises from early position) you will get played with by a larger range of hands. For crying out loud, look at the action in this hand: BB raises allin with AK!!?? What did he think that you and the other two raisers had: cheese whiz?? Talk about a BAD play on his part??

It is the proclivity of online players to make these kinds of moves that makes me very wary. Would he not have made the same move on you had he been the only caller? What do you do then? You have to muck your QQ.

In numbers of posts here on 2+2, the concept of "making the smallest raise necessary" in tournament play has been advanced. This concept has been stated with the idea of chip conservation in mind.

My thinking is that in this situation , a simple call is about the same thing as a small raise: It will allow you to find out where you're at for the minimum amount of chips.

A large part of this is the issue of the worth of QQ in opening position at this stage of the tournament. Everything that I have read (coupled with my own experience) leads me to believe that there is no "right way" to play this hand.

In this situation, the actual action following your play made your decision quite simple, but what if you had gotten 2 or 3 flat calls? What if an A or K comes on the flop? What do you do then?

My response was fine tuned for the specific situation (stage of the tournament; chip holdings; the fact that it was PL, not FL or NL: no maniacs in the crowd: your table position with the hand….etc.)

I am not asserting that my play of just calling was correct in all situations: just this one. I simply don't want to trap myself (and put myself in a position to compound what might be an error).

Thinking "big picture" here, I'm trying to delve into my own play with my responses to this post. I'm looking for feedback to determine if this kind of thinking is a "leak" in my play. My ultimate goal is to strengthen my game, & I'm not too worried about looking like a "duffer" if I'm miles of the mark on this one.

I respect your play & insight and look forward to further responses from you (and others) here to enrich the discussion.

Thanks Much!!!

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I agree with Ken. The fact that you will get played with means you should be MORE likely to raise again. The only reason I see not to raise is if you expect to get raised after limping, and then can trap them when you reraise.

If you had a tight image, they would come after you with AA or KK. Similarly, they will do so here. However, they will also come after you with 99 and ATo, so let's raise and know that when they reraise, we're getting way the best of it.

The situation here makes playing QQ quite tough, but if only one player had reraised you, it would be pretty easy to make the right decision.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Graham]

Ken,

I'll bet you anything that the BB w/ AK has a copy of DS's tournament book... /forums/images/icons/wink.gif.

He/she just hasn't thought through the rest of it beyond the AK-All-In Preflop-Isn't-Too-Bad line. I've seen a lot (or maybe I'm just noticing it now) of hyper aggression with AK preflop in NL online tourneys.

G

[sdplayerb]

I'd have to agree.
Since the book came out AK has been played way to aggressively. If i see and huge overbet preflop, i just assume it is AK and am usually right.

[Bubmack]

OK, so you raise it and only the BB moves in (he has you covered) - are you going to call it?

I think that raising it preflop will only make the preflop,flop,turn play more confusing if you experience agression -I would not be able to determine if he is making a play at me (considering previous 2 raises)?