Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour [Archive]

grjr

06-05-2005, 01:55 AM

Since everyone has been clamoring for more marginal hands /images/graemlins/wink.gif I thought I'd post this one that happened a little while ago. You guys can debate the play up to the turn if you want but this is the way I play these hands. My question is what do you do on the turn?

Both villains are MegaFish* LPP's. Each one sees 70-80% of flops.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero???

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My question is what do you do on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap your pants. We don't even have 9 outs here, and I'm pretty sure UTG is 3 betting this. I'm taking the weak route and mucking this.

istewart

06-05-2005, 02:11 AM

What's with the preflop call?

grjr

06-05-2005, 02:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What's with the preflop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call there with that hand every time.

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 08:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Since everyone has been clamoring for more marginal hands /images/graemlins/wink.gif I thought I'd post this one that happened a little while ago. You guys can debate the play up to the turn if you want but this is the way I play these hands. My question is what do you do on the turn?

Both villains are MegaFish* LPP's. Each one sees 70-80% of flops.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero???

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold the turn. Flop was capped and you're drawing to third nut flush on a paired board with a couple of guys who are passive but obviously like their chances here. Ax, JJ, AJ, is what I see from both of these guys. Key being, they are passive. They're not betting flush draws. You're getting 6.5-1 but you're probably going to have to call 2 more and the paired board can crush you if one of them fills up (If they haven't already.)

ArturiusX

06-05-2005, 09:04 AM

Its close, but capping behind/tainted board pairing outs make this a muck for mine.

topspin

06-05-2005, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's with the preflop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call there with that hand every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I fold this there every time.

Fantam

06-05-2005, 11:01 AM

At the turn I would call.

You were being offered 7:1 at that stage. Even if the turn were capped you would still be getting nearly 5:1 to call, and the odds of making your flush on the river were about 4:1.

Its possible that if you made your flush, that you could still lose to a higher flush or full-house. However, I think that the odds were still in your favour to call the turn raise, because its not certain that the turn would have been capped.

aron

06-05-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:

Quote:
What's with the preflop call?

I call there with that hand every time.

Why? I fold this there every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I add my vote to the call this everytime.
It's a suited 2-gapper, there are already multiple callers and it's only half a bet.
I pretty much call with any two suited cards here.

-aron

aron

06-05-2005, 11:22 AM

How did you get your quotes-within-quote boxes to get there?

-aron

Rev. Good Will

06-05-2005, 11:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's with the preflop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call there with that hand every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

seconded

turaho

06-05-2005, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I add my vote to the call this everytime.
It's a suited 2-gapper, there are already multiple callers and it's only half a bet. I pretty much call with any two suited cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without UTG's raise, I agree... any two suited, as long as there's at least one limper in the pot. After a raise and with so many cold-callers it's a close call, but I'd be a lot happier if the gap was a little narrower or I had more high card strength before I made this call preflop.

bozlax

06-05-2005, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My question is what do you do on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wish I hadn't completed a raised pot preflop with such a weak hand.

But, now that you're in, you've got two loose players in with you. Do you really think that one of them is holding AJ? A6? AA? JJ is a possiblitiy, as is 66, I suppose, but I think it's more likely that the PFR is holding A-broadway and the other is holding ace-rag. You have more outs to your flush than they have to their boat, so you call.

Yeah. If I've come this far I'm seeing the river and losing a lot of bets if I make my flush. But I just call hoping that UTG+2's raise slows down UTG on the turn.

aron

06-05-2005, 02:42 PM

Sorry everyone!
I missed the PF raise.
Now I say no way I'm ever calling PF in this situation.

-aron

Redd

06-05-2005, 03:06 PM

I agree with toss; I fold this every time. This is too little hand to pay 1.5 bets OOP. Especially here, because an LPP UTG raise can only mean business.

grjr

06-05-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I add my vote to the call this everytime.
It's a suited 2-gapper, there are already multiple callers and it's only half a bet. I pretty much call with any two suited cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without UTG's raise, I agree... any two suited, as long as there's at least one limper in the pot. After a raise and with so many cold-callers it's a close call, but I'd be a lot happier if the gap was a little narrower or I had more high card strength before I made this call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I see a raised pot with 2 or 3 callers I don't care that much about high card strength. The more people in the pot the more the odds that a lot of high cards are out already. I'd rather have some medium cards that can make a straight or a flush.

I'd have been a lot happier if the flop hadn't paired like that though.

grjr

06-05-2005, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's with the preflop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call there with that hand every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I fold this there every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I've got a lot of ways to hit the flop if everybody else has high cards. These are the kinds of hands that can get you those 20 or 30 BB pots. The 2-gappers won't hit a lot of straights but when they do it's usually pretty well disguised so you get a lot of action from the big pairs.

grjr

06-05-2005, 04:06 PM

Well, so I folded on the turn--which is HIGHLY unusual for me with a FD--because I thought there was a good chance the turn would be capped AND one of these guys already had a fullhouse. I probably should have realized that even though they were normally passive they still ARE REALLY BAD PLAYERS and could have just about anything.

I mainly wanted to make sure that I wasn't the only one who would chicken out here.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (15 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Td Th (two pair, aces and tens).
UTG+2 has Ah 7s (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 17 BB.

jrz1972

06-05-2005, 04:53 PM

Easy fold PF.

jrz1972

06-05-2005, 04:58 PM

Also, I'm calling the turn. If I knew there would be no more raises, a call would be a no-brainer, and even if I knew it would be capped a call still wouldn't be all that horrible. If it were capped, I'd be getting 3.75:1 which is a little lower than what I ideally need to make putting in 4 bets correct. You also have to consider that I should discount my flush outs somewhat. Then again, I'm getting a couple more BBs on the river if I hit safely, so it's close. By calling on the turn, my play is good if its not capped and only slightly wrong if it is capped, so I'll take my chances and toss in a call. It's close though and I can't argue too much with a fold.

grjr

06-05-2005, 05:05 PM

OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

jrz1972

06-05-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen your PT numbers out of the blinds, and I will just be honest and say that I don't believe them. I'm not saying you're just making them up; I'm saying that you're going to get well-acquainted with a concept called "reversion to the mean" sometime in the future. They're far out of whack with any other set of stats I've ever seen posted, and the fact that you semi-coldcall all day long with suited junk out of the SB makes me even more convinced that you're just running well from those positions.

In answer to your question, though, I'm at (.13) in the BB and (.12) in the SB. I think my PT BB winrate is overstated.

Redd

06-05-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grjr, the fact that you feel one's winrate from a single position has any bearing over the number of hands anyone here has played shows that you're misunderstanding at least one concept.

You said you're not playing for high card value at all here; then would you also complete 52s into an UTG raise?

grjr

06-05-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grjr, the fact that you feel one's winrate from a single position has any bearing over the number of hands anyone here has played shows that you're misunderstanding at least one concept.

You said you're not playing for high card value at all here; then would you also complete 52s into an UTG raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now don't go and misquote me. I said "I'm not that concerned with high card strength". T7s is a better hand than 52s because a pair of tens (or sevens) will win a lot more than a pair of fives. With more callers though I would probably call with 52s but not here.

The point about the winrate from the blinds is that the people who think I'm nuts for calling all these raises from the blinds with suited "crap" might ought to consider that perhaps I'm doing something right. Maybe I've been lucky, I don't know, but I've been lucky for 40,000 hands so far.

Remember, every time you fold a blind you've lost money.

Redd

06-05-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I've been lucky, I don't know, but I've been lucky for 40,000 hands so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you've played about 4000 small blinds. Lets assume a generous global 10% average PFR, giving you a chance to make 400 cool-completes (Note that this is also ignoring blind-steal situations). Assuming you call half of them, that's a sample size of 200 hands that you're using to determine whether or not it's profitable to CC from the SB. Do you think this is statistically significant?

If you want to examine the situation where you're coldcalling an UTG raise (which I think is important here), it becomes more like 15 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Remember, every time you fold a blind you've lost money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time you post a blind, you've lost money. Every time you fold, the expectation is 0 EV. Every time you call a hand that you shouldn't, the expecation is -EV.

I think I'm done with this thread. I've made my case, and there's not much else I can add to the subject. You're welcome to take or leave everyone's opinions here.

Shillx

06-05-2005, 06:39 PM

How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Trips+: 1.45%
2-pair: 2.02%
Flush Draw or Flush: 11.78%
Straight or OESD: 3.9%

Total: 5.4:1 against

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

aron

06-05-2005, 06:41 PM

Hi Brad!

Seen you posting stats like this before, where do you get them from?

-aron

Shillx

06-05-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Brad!

Seen you posting stats like this before, where do you get them from?

-aron

[/ QUOTE ]

Brain power. The straight and straight draw ones are kinda tricky to figure out. Each way that you can flop a straight or straight draw that only uses one hole card is .33% and each straight draw that uses both hole cards (so in this hand a 98x flop) is 3.3%. You also have to consider that monotone flops are bad (so I don't factor those in) and that they overlap with flush draws from time to time. So in reality, you will flop each straight draw combo 2.6% of the time and each straight combo .26% of the time.

Brad

grjr

06-05-2005, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Trips+: 1.45%
2-pair: 2.02%
Flush Draw or Flush: 11.78%
Straight or OESD: 3.9%

Total: 5.4:1 against

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens. I just now had the hand that follows. (Note: I don't usually call with this but I was in the middle of reading comments about my loose ways and was a little aggravated /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9c Th (two pair, tens and eights).
UTG+1 has Ac Ks (one pair, eights).
CO has Ah Kh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.75 BB.

grjr

06-05-2005, 07:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think I'm done with this thread. I've made my case, and there's not much else I can add to the subject. You're welcome to take or leave everyone's opinions here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate you taking time to respond to this. I assume you realize you won't change my mind though. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I just want to say one thing about EV calculations. It's my opinion that most people who do them don't account enough for implied odds; especially in multiway raised pots. I may be wrong but that's the way I look at it.

Siegmund

06-05-2005, 08:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Total: 5.4:1 against [including draws]

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you're leaving out the fact that flopping a draw has not made you any money; it has only given you enough odds to see the rest of the cards. Only if you flop a draw, get a bunch of extra money into the pot, and win your fair share, will you make back enough to cover the preflop investment.

Your implied odds have been destroyed by that preflop raise. No way would I call this preflop even in the BIG blind. Playing suited connectors from early position or in raised pots is a huge, huge, huge leak, one I didn't have until I was seduced into playing them too often by posters on this and similar forums. Took me quite some time to get over it but am glad I did.

T9s is about the worst I would play from the SB here. 87s I *might* play from the BB.

Returning to the OP's question... if these are typical fish they are thinking about absolute rather than relative hand values, and think any ace is a terrific hand on this flop and turn. (Which it is - but not enough to cap two streets without a K or Q kicker at least.) I think my only poisoned out is the /images/graemlins/club.gif6. If there's any chance the turn WON'T be capped, I am staying to see the river.

grjr

06-05-2005, 10:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Total: 5.4:1 against [including draws]

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you're leaving out the fact that flopping a draw has not made you any money; it has only given you enough odds to see the rest of the cards. Only if you flop a draw, get a bunch of extra money into the pot, and win your fair share, will you make back enough to cover the preflop investment.

Your implied odds have been destroyed by that preflop raise. No way would I call this preflop even in the BIG blind. Playing suited connectors from early position or in raised pots is a huge, huge, huge leak, one I didn't have until I was seduced into playing them too often by posters on this and similar forums. Took me quite some time to get over it but am glad I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so now that you've been Saved from the evils of marginal hands in the blinds what is your BB/Hand for the SB and BB?

irishpint

06-05-2005, 10:51 PM

f0ld

Shillx

06-05-2005, 11:16 PM

You will make money after the flop if you hit a flush draw provided that a lot of people see the flop. You are making some money on all the flop betting provided that 3 other people are in the pot (I say this because you can sometimes make a flush and still lose to a bigger flush or a house or whatever). You also have the luxury of being able to skip a round of betting (the river) when you don't make the flush, and using that final round to collect when it comes in. So when you flop a flush draw, the only time that you lose money is when you miss on 4th street and have to pay to see the river. Let's just say that 4 people are in the pot and one bet goes in on each street no matter what. Let's also assume that you will win 85% of the time that you end up making a flush. Is this is a good spot for you?

EV = -1.5BB*.65 - 2.5BB*.35*.15 + 7.5BB*.35*.85 = + 1.13 BB/Hand

Looks good to me.

Brad