$55: Previous batch of 400 = -1% ROI. Latest 150= -10%. WTF?!!?!??

[AA suited]

This is really worrying me.

I went into a nose dive.

From 25% roi (1000+ SnGs), to 10%, to -1% (last batch of 400 SnGs), and now my latest batch of 150 is -10%.

The -1% from the batch of 400 was due to fancy play syndrome.

This batch of 150:
i dont recall any fancy plays. Just standard play tight, and steal when short stacked.

It seems i had more than usual:
- my monster ran into a bigger monster (qq vs aa, tp but he had better kicker-> aq vs ak, overpair vs bigger overpair, tp vs 2pair, 2pair vs set, set vs set)
- 2nd best hand
- bad beats
- not getting cards
- players almost always had a pair, Ax, or 2 face cards when i tried to steal

Banging head against wall /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ripped]

variance my friend. 25% for the 55's is really well. You ran well and now it's coming back at you. With 1000 sng's and 25% ROI you are obviously a winning player and it will turn around. I think raptor posted about 1000 sng's breaking even.

[AA suited]

variance..yeah i know.

it's just this is the worst streak i've had so far.

same feeling about getting arrested for 1st time, and going to jail for 1st time. 1st time is always the worst. 2nd time isnt as bad as long as this event doesnt exceed the 1st event in seriousness.

so when/if i get thru this streak, i can handle any streaks like it in the future. unless that bad streak runs longer than his one.

as for raptor, he 12 tables. i'm sure some of that 1k break even was due to more errors than if he 4 tabled.

[Myst]

Variance can be huge even for a 20% ROI player, with profit swings that can change for month to month. I made a spreadsheet that allows me to see how variance can affect profit margins over a certain period of time (With help from a 2+2 link of course)

So give you an idea, lets assume a 20% ROI player at the 55s . This player 8-tables them for 40 hours a week and plays for 160 hours a month. The total amount of SNGs he plays every month is 1280.

Here are ten random profit margins he can have in that month timeframe:

$18,250
$10,900
$9,850
$10,600
$12,100
$13,900
$8,650
$15,650
$13,400
$11,000

So you see, our hypothetical player can make as much as $18,250, or as little as $8,650, all depending on how the cards break out. These numbers are probably not the extremes as to what is possible either.

So Variance can either be your bitch or make you his. Also keep in mind that as your edge (ROI) gets smaller in the game you are playing, the greater the swings can become.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]

as for raptor, he 12 tables. i'm sure some of that 1k break even was due to more errors than if he 4 tabled.

[/ QUOTE ]
As far as I know he is a winning player 12 tabeling the $100s. If his break even streak was a result of errors caused by 12 tabeling then that would simply imply that he is not beating the game. Either way, you should look up some of his posts that he made about this.

[AA suited]

update:

played another 50. the latest 150 is now latest 200.

ROI has now DROPPED to -13% (-$1500) /images/graemlins/frown.gif

30 buy-in downturn

Sigh..

You know, my bad streak started around the time i got my new 2001fp 20" LCD.

before that, i was on a 17" LCD and the tables overlapped.

Could not having overlapping tables causing me to play badly?!

if so, can anyone explain why i play better with tables overlapped?

[1C5]

What fancy plays for the 400 games do you mean? Example?

[Nick M]

i hate math...so what is that total for 1550 at the 55s??? If it's like 7% to 15% Nice job dude i like it congrats...can someone help me here?

It's all in your head!!!! Trust me EZ money.

[Phoenix1010]

Hey, at least you're on an upward swing.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
update:

played another 50. the latest 150 is now latest 200.

ROI has now DROPPED to -13% (-$1500) /images/graemlins/frown.gif

30 buy-in downturn

Sigh..

You know, my bad streak started around the time i got my new 2001fp 20" LCD.

before that, i was on a 17" LCD and the tables overlapped.

Could not having overlapping tables causing me to play badly?!

if so, can anyone explain why i play better with tables overlapped?

[/ QUOTE ]

ok im gonna sound as stupid answering this question as the question is itself.

when i multitable i tend to focus more on one table. which keeps your head focused more. usually on that one table i focus on i'll play better and make more profit pushing smaller edges because of reads

maybe just maybe your head has a easyer time focusing on one table when you can push smaller edges and semi auto pilot the other tables.
or maybe you feel off balanced seeing all the tables at once. another 500 games might do it for you.

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]

It seems i had more than usual:
- my monster ran into a bigger monster (qq vs aa, tp but he had better kicker-> aq vs ak, overpair vs bigger overpair, tp vs 2pair, 2pair vs set, set vs set)
- 2nd best hand
- bad beats
- not getting cards
- players almost always had a pair, Ax, or 2 face cards when i tried to steal



[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true it is just bad luck. Only you can evaluate if it is the correct assesment.

I have tried to implement a new system lately: Whenever I take a beat I type 'nh'. I feel it makes a note in my mind that says 'Hey, you got your money in good. That is all you can do.' Just trying to reinforce in my mind that I did a good thing. Also, being courteous is a nice refreshing change from all the complaints and cussing.

Plus, small sample yada yada yada...

[Nick M]

i believe that anything that changes from the norm might take some getting use to. But i also believe that non overlapping tables is like sooooo important. I want to focus on every table at one time.

[Big Limpin']

Have you considered retirement?
If that isnt appealing, i suggest taking a sabbadical.

Estimate the loses for the next week. Instead of giving this money to Vig and fish, give it to a travel agent. She hooks you up with a nice Carribean cruise.

(i am only semi-joking)