1600 posts in 2 years, 9 months, 3 days; Hand #9430 at $1/2; 99 in SB [Archive]

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 12:43 AM

It should be an unmomentous occasion when you realize that you've spent over 33 months posting/reading at 2+2 (actually, the truth is that I already have more than 1600 posts... I was posting before registration was required). This board has been the best thing to happen to my interest in poker and my poker playing ability. It has taken quite a bit of time and effort, but I like the rewards. I don't have any massive documents (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2141664&page=&view=&s b=5&o=) to contribute to the board. It's "just another hand".

Normally, I don't raise 99 in the small blind with this many players. I often prefer to take a cheaper flop and outplay them postflop in small pot poker. I decided to be different this time and play big pot poker (the presence of two posters helps in this decision, as the average hand is now significantly weaker). There's nothing special about any of these players except that none of them seem to be any good at all.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero...

Think through your line carefully. What's your plan? What are the contingencies? Big pot poker requires a lot of thinking if you want to play it really well.

zuluking

06-05-2005, 12:46 AM

For me, easy bet. Did you c/r the flop?

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 12:49 AM

I'm staring at my computer trying to find an excuse to check raise here but can't find one. As much as I wwant to checkraise this, it's just way tooo much of a gamble, as it's effectiveness is contingent not only on a random someone betting, but also on the seat location of that random bettor. Way too many variables not to bet, although betting makes me hold by breath as well.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 12:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
For me, easy bet. Did you c/r the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a bet accomplish?

Isura

06-05-2005, 12:56 AM

check flop. hope like crazy someone in LP bets (they definitly will in a big pot), and check/raise. If not, hope the turn is not too dangerous looking and lead the turn. Our hand is too vulnerable with little chance to improve, so that we must risking giving a free card to try to protect this hand.

Edit: If the action is bet and then several calls, no point in check/raising. So call, and lead a safe turn.

albedoa

06-05-2005, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For me, easy bet. Did you c/r the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a bet accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

It knocks out hands that could beat you before the showdown. What would checking accomplish?

EDIT: Besides the hopeful LP bet, but you'd be praying for it.

davelin

06-05-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For me, easy bet. Did you c/r the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a bet accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Value.

davelin

06-05-2005, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For me, easy bet. Did you c/r the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a bet accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

It knocks out hands that could beat you before the showdown. What would checking accomplish?

EDIT: Besides the hopeful LP bet, but you'd be praying for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many hands are folding here.

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 01:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What does a bet accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. We don't fold anything with a bet; but at least we get some value. In addition, a bet also ensures that this betting round doesn't get checked through, which is probably more important than anything when protecting a marginal hand in a large pot. These appear to be our options.
a. bet
b. checkraise a later bettor.
c. check/call an earlier bettor.
d. check/fold.

d is obviously wrong and b is obviously ideal. However, c happens almost as often as b when we try for b, and c is the worst. Betting isn't effective in earning us the pot, but it appears to be the best option.

Isura

06-05-2005, 01:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1600 posts in 2 years, 9 months, 3 days; Hand #9430 at $1/2; 99 in SB

[/ QUOTE ]

Name your post Pooh-bah dissertation.
You'll get more views and it just sounds cool. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Isura

06-05-2005, 01:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does a bet accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. We don't fold anything with a bet; but at least we get some value. In addition, a bet also ensures that this betting round doesn't get checked through, which is probably more important than anything when protecting a marginal hand in a large pot. These appear to be our options.
a. bet
b. checkraise a later bettor.
c. check/call an earlier bettor.
d. check/fold.

d is obviously wrong and b is obviously ideal. However, c happens almost as often as b when we try for b, and c is the worst. Betting isn't effective in earning us the pot, but it appears to be the best option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes we have to risk not protecting the pot in this round if we think a next street will allow us to more effectively protect the pot. If the turn is a blank, bet. If it's a Ace or some other ugly card, nothing wrong with check/folding if there is action.

albedoa

06-05-2005, 01:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not many hands are folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is betting out a bad option here, or just not the ideal one?

zuluking

06-05-2005, 01:09 AM

All of this talk about not betting here is indicitive of the weak/tight thinking that has crept into the micro board lately. A few months ago, it wouldn't even be argued.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
All of this talk about not betting here is indicitive of the weak/tight thinking that has crept into the micro board lately. A few months ago, it wouldn't even be argued.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Betting would have been (should have been) argued a few months ago. I think it's clearly the wrong move.

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes we have to risk not protecting the pot in this round if we think a next street will allow us to more effectively protect the pot. If the turn is a blank, bet. If it's a Ace or some other ugly card, nothing wrong with check/folding if there is action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be more correct if we raised preflop with a hand like KK, (although I still think we are giving up too much value with a check) but with 99, there just aren't safe cards. The only passive flop/aggressive turn combo I can possibly imagine being effective with this hand would be if we were to check to an EP aggressive bettor on the flop and call his flop bet, then lead out the turn hoping he'll raise to thin the field. That's thin, though.

Isura

06-05-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
All of this talk about not betting here is indicitive of the weak/tight thinking that has crept into the micro board lately. A few months ago, it wouldn't even be argued.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out is not weak-tight, but it is not a good play in this situation.

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Betting would have been (should have been) argued a few months ago. I think it's clearly the wrong move.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why your posts are about as useful as a barbershop at the foot of a guillotine, aaron. You poke around and make these vague statements but wait forever to clarify. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I want an explanation.

djg40

06-05-2005, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's clearly the wrong move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what is the right move? Waiting for a LP bettor and then check raising, or check/calling and leading a safe turn?

I always thought you wanted to win big pots immediately, not get cute with weak players.

*shrug*

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Betting would have been (should have been) argued a few months ago. I think it's clearly the wrong move.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why your posts are about as useful as a barbershop at the foot of a guillotine, aaron. You poke around and make these vague statements but wait forever to clarify. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I want an explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll get one. Just be patient. One thing I've learned while working my way up to Pooh-bah is the instant gratification of simply reading an answer isn't always helpful. Think it through. What does a bet accomplish? What can good/bad can happen if you bet? What are possible turn cards? How do they affect your line?

It's much like those students who read answers out of the solution manual and say to themselves "I get it." When the test comes, they often don't do well because it never really sank in.

Isura

06-05-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I always thought you wanted to win big pots immediately, not get cute with weak players.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are winning this pot on the flop like never.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's clearly the wrong move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what is the right move? Waiting for a LP bettor and then check raising, or check/calling and leading a safe turn?

I always thought you wanted to win big pots immediately, not get cute with weak players.

*shrug*

[/ QUOTE ]

You would prefer to win big pot immediately, but will a bet win this immediately?

albedoa

06-05-2005, 01:24 AM

Another thought: In micro limits, a flop like this makes Ax players fall in love with the raise button. An early bet could make an early AX player raise and force two bets on the remaining players, making unmade hands fold.

Thoughts?

djg40

06-05-2005, 01:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You would prefer to win big pot immediately, but will a bet win this immediately?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not often, but it will at least push out one or two hands that could hurt us on later streets if we give them a free card.

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Another thought: In micro limits, a flop like this makes Ax players fall in love with the raise button. An early bet could make an early AX player raise and force two bets on the remaining players, making unmade hands fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, ya, believe it or not. Our chances of gambling with a bet for an EP raise, which is VERY effective for us, are a lot better than our chances of successfully moving through an LP checkraise.

Keep in mind also that a bet does protect our hand in that ensures that no one gets to the turn for free, which is absolutely more crucial than anything if we are going to accept that this pot won't be won on the flop.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero...

Think through your line carefully. What's your plan? What are the contingencies? Big pot poker requires a lot of thinking if you want to play it really well.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people want to bet this.

Why betting doesn't do much of anything

If I bet, everyone is getting 14:1 or better, which is enough to draw out on me even if they only a single overcard.

A bet doesn't help me win the pot now, nor will it help me win the pot later.

Betting will not prevent any of the bad cards from falling and it won't be effective in making those bad cards any safer.

A bet continues to bloat the pot, making hand protection even more impossible than it already is.

Putting this all together, even if there is an equity edge (which there probably is, but it's going to be razor thin), a bet doesn't do anything for me. In fact, by betting here, any equity I might be picking up will be lost because on the turn and river, I'm going to be giving that equity right back to them because I'm going to have to fold very often before the showdown.

Since folding is not an option, we've got to check this and hope for the best.

===

What happens when I check?

If an early player bets and everyone calls, I'll be in basically the same position I would be in if I had bet it myself. Therefore, nothing is gained or lost here.

If I give up a free card (not very likely, but it could happen), I lose out on the tiny equity edge I might have collected on the flop. I don't *hurt* my hand really, because that card was going to fall and hurt my hand regardless of what I did. A flop bet drives out *AT MOST* one player, and I don't think that makes the turn any safer at all.

If the table explodes into a betting rampage, somebody has A5 or a set, and I'm going to bail out (and I saved myself that first bet).

If the last player to act on the flop bet his hand, then I could check-raise it. That would give 8:1 to everyone, which is at least effective in making the hands with just a single overcard fold. If someone else bets, I'm just going to check-call.

Nobody likes the feeling of not being in control of the hand. However, when the pot is this big and the hand this vulnerable, you've got to sit tight and wait to see what happens.

===

What do I want on the turn?

It was suggested that there aren't many "safe" cards. In this spot, I consider a T, 9, 8, 7, 4, 3, and 2 to all be "pretty safe" if it's not a diamond (18 cards if I can count right). Even a 6 or J non-diamond might be "somewhat safe". Every other card is basically a killer. This means that over half the time, I'm going to be unhappy on the turn (another reason why betting isn't doing anything for me).

===

What happens on the turn?

If a safe card falls, I'm betting out and hoping for the best.

If an ace or five falls, I'm done with my hand. A check-fold is in order because my set outs are probably worthless.

If a diamond falls, I'm inclined to check and see what happens. Being OOP means that sometimes you have to be patient and see how things play out before you choose your course of action. If it's bet and raised, I'm done. I'm looking to check-raise a late position bet, or check-call an early bet, planning to lead on the river.

If a king or queen falls, I panic and probably check to see what happens, but betting might also be okay.

===

Your action

Argue this out with me a little bit. This is probably one of the most complicated hands I've ever tried to think through. I don't claim that my argument is airtight, so spend the time to search for leaks.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind also that a bet does protect our hand in that ensures that no one gets to the turn for free, which is absolutely more crucial than anything if we are going to accept that this pot won't be won on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't accept the pot can't be won on the flop, then you're in big trouble. (Not to say that you don't believe it, but you make it sound like it's an option.)

Why is giving up a free card so bad? It's not going to "cost" me the pot, because those hands probably aren't going anywhere anyway. What it's really going to cost me is whatever equity edge I have on the flop. And that edge is miniscule considering that I'm probably not going to see the showdown over 50% of the time.

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 02:09 AM

First off, let me agree by saying that betting isn't a good option, as there are no good options here. I would almost suggest that donk moding this and just checking each street and calling one bet in the dark is as good as anything.

[ QUOTE ]
Putting this all together, even if there is an equity edge (which there probably is, but it's going to be razor thin),

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had to guess, I would reward us with about 18-22% equity, which really isn't great, but it's not [censored]. You make a good point though about later street aggression knocking us back.

[ QUOTE ]
betting doesn't do much of anything

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you are wrong here for the same reason that you think checkraising is right. A bet CAN protect your hand if you get raised early, the same way that the checkraise will. I no longer really bet this for equity, but I may look at the texture of my opponents, tending to bet and hope for the best if I have some LAGs on my left, and tending to check and hope for the best if I have some LAGS on my right.

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't accept the pot can't be won on the flop, then you're in big trouble. (Not to say that you don't believe it, but you make it sound like it's an option.)

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I don't understand the nature of that threat, and secondly, I don't know where I ever gave the idea that winning on the flop is an option.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 02:18 AM

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I love this hand because it's so strange and so interesting. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

How are you going to respond on the turn if
- A "safe" card falls?
- A diamond falls?
- An ace or five falls?
- A king or queen falls?

Buckmulligan

06-05-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How are you going to respond on the turn if
- A "safe" card falls?
- A diamond falls?
- An ace or five falls?
- A king or queen falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

It really doesn't matter now. I'm check calling to the river without even looking at the cards and folding to two cold. I think anything heroic at this point is a spew.

adsman

06-05-2005, 03:32 AM

If BB isn't a complete idiot it looks like you could be up against a made hand or something close to it, as that checkraise was designed to bloat the pot not push anybody out. We're going to the turn with a potsize of over 12BB. What is a 'safe card'? You could be up against the str8. But that doesn't make sense as str8's on the flop are very vulnerable to being sucked out on. So I think a set or the nut flush draw.
In retrospect it looks as if betting the flop might have been a good idea. Hindsight is not useful however, and I do like the arguments that you posted for not betting the flop. My only question is this; are the arguments that you posted more suited to higher levels and better players than those found here?
The Turn? Bet out and hope he raises.

ArturiusX

06-05-2005, 06:10 AM

This may sound strange, but micro limits has gone downhill in terms of critical thinking. I bet this flop never.

The reason is simple, there's an omega amount of draws out here. Some could already be made. There's also a lot of hands that hurt us. Betting is very stupid because its simply a waste of money. Our equity edge isn't high here so there's no point pushing it. We need to increase our equity, which means protection! Some of you guys are the reason why I never fear TAGs popping up in GT++, because the amount of easily exploitable leaks is incredable.

I check this, see what happens, possible check raise, possible call.

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 06:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You would prefer to win big pot immediately, but will a bet win this immediately?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not often, but it will at least push out one or two hands that could hurt us on later streets if we give them a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it won't.

yellowjack

06-05-2005, 06:49 AM

I agree that this is one of the more complicated hands. However I think it is very similar to an example in SSHE on page 187 under "Two Overpair Hands". In this example, you have TT on the button vs. 5 players. The flop is 9c 7c 3s. In short, it says to wait for a safe card to fall on the turn before betting/raising. Your pot equity changes drastically on the turn, and you don't bloat the pot making gutshots profitable (i.e. you may be able to force the field to call 2 bets cold) if lucky), among the OESD and flush draws out there already.

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 06:59 AM

I knew what you were driving at immediately, Aaron. I just read this section again last night.

SSHE describes a situation similar to this. Here is a quote from "Final Thoughts" on page 189:

"Specifically, you should sometimes wait for the turn to raise with a hand you think is probably best if the following criteria are met:

1. Raising now has little chance to induce opponents to fold.
2. Your hand is vulnerable, many cards (often up to half the deck) could beat you, and, thus, your edge is small.
3. If a favorable card comes, your edge will be much bigger on the turn."

You have to wait for the turn here. Probably more than half the deck beats you at this point. The hands that you want your flop-raise to force to fold, won't. They shouldn't. You can't give them bad odds on the flop, but maybe you get to checkraise the turn and drive out gutshot draws, etc.

Pokerstove this against random hands and you win 20.6% of the time. I look at 99, that flop, six players, and say "This sucks."

oreogod

06-05-2005, 07:26 AM

I dont see the argument here. If u bet everyone in the world is jumping over themselves to call your bet.

You have 6 players in, it will almost surely be bet and u can go in for a CR. A CR is way more effective in this situation than just a bet. Either way if it gets checked around, betting the turn is very effective.

All u do with a flop bet is bloat the pot. Thats not good and u are asking to be called down if u do.

I find the logic of betting to be very close to what I think of this concept:

A good Ed Miller post on, betting for info (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=523282&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

oreogod

06-05-2005, 07:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]

It really doesn't matter now. I'm check calling to the river without even looking at the cards and folding to two cold. I think anything heroic at this point is a spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. To put it lightly, I dont think thats the best way to approach the situation.

oreogod

06-05-2005, 07:37 AM

Second question:

How are you going to respond on the turn if

- A "safe" card falls?
BET/go for a Check Raise.
- A diamond falls?
CHECK
- An ace or five falls?
CHECK
- A king or queen falls?
This many callers with this action? Check.

Its the hypothetical how-do-u-respond to the how-do-u-respond question that is the most intresting. The what u do, in response to what happened after what u did. But that would take me a while to post and actually require thinking on my part.

Edit: Just went through the thread...looks like I was late for the start of the party. My anwsers appear to be old news at this point.

deepsquat

06-05-2005, 07:57 AM

A C/R is the only play with a field this big imo. Betting will not acheive anything, i think its a thin value bet if you put it in context that we have 2 more streets to play.

If you bet out everyone with anything will have odds to call and pretty much any Broadway card, and several small cards are going to be a problem, particularly OOP. If we check, we may get a late position better to C/R and this will increase our equity considerably by hopefully folding some overcards and gutshots. Think about it, i can probably say that 7,8,9 are the only cards that i will be comfortable seeing for the next 2 streets with a bunch of callers.

There is very little risk that this will get checked thru, id say 1/20 times max with this drawing board and this field.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:18 AM

Bet the flop for value. You will get called by many worse hands, some correctly and maybe some incorrectly.

The problem with checking this flop is that it will frequently get checked around, or an early position player will bet. That does nothing to help you protect your hand on the turn. Even if the flop gets checked around there are 7 BB in the pot and you aren't going to be able to really protect your hand against overcards or split pairs trying to make trips or two pair. Hope you get raised so you can three-bet the flop to build a very large pot that you are going to win most of the time.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:19 AM

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 08:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I love this hand because it's so strange and so interesting. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

How are you going to respond on the turn if
- A "safe" card falls?
- A diamond falls?
- An ace or five falls?
- A king or queen falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

The way the flop played out, three-bet for value and it isn't close. You want to make this pot very large because you have a very very good chance of winning it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You don't.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No. You don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The truth is, right now the pot is too large. Nothing you do is going to reliably protect your hand. BB could be making this checkraise with a ton of hands, including a 5, a 4, pretty much any PP, a flush draw, or a hand like 67 for two overcards and a gutshot straight draw. Some of the people in on the flop probably have hands like 89 that they think are drawing to 6 outs but are really drawing totally dead and you want to collect as many bets as you can from these hands. Even if a total blank comes on the turn (what is a total blank at this point? Pretty much any card besides the two nines is going to potentially help someone) you aren't going to reasonably expect BB to raise your bet. Right now you are most likely way ahead and I think you should collect all the bets you can. The pot has become tremendous and basically unmanageable but that isn't a terrible thing because due to this board lots of people are going to be willing to put in bets drawing dead. If an awful turn card like an A or a 5 hits you will have to deal with it but right now you have the best hand a huge percentage of the time.

Tell me, what is your great plan to protect your hand against this field in this ginormous pot on the turn?

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:40 AM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.032 secs 20,812 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.4805 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.5506 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 18.1181 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { 7s6s }
Hand 4: 25.2252 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 25.0751 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 00.5506 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 7h7c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 16.2663 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.9510 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 36.5365 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { 5h4h }
Hand 4: 19.7197 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 22.2723 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 04.2543 % [ 00.03 00.01 ] { 7h7c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.7227 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.7007 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 29.3794 % [ 00.29 00.01 ] { 7s5h }
Hand 4: 22.2723 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 24.2242 % [ 00.24 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 00.7007 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 7h7c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.5676 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.4505 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 23.4234 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 7s5h }
Hand 4: 13.8138 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 44.2943 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { QdJd }
Hand 6: 00.4505 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 7h7c }

You only need slightly better than 16% equity to have an equity edge at this point. Your equity varies depending on some factors but it stays really high as long as you have the best hand right now, and I think this is the vast majority of the time. I don't mind making a huge pot on the flop.

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 08:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No. You don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The truth is, right now the pot is too large. Nothing you do is going to reliably protect your hand. BB could be making this checkraise with a ton of hands, including a 5, a 4, pretty much any PP, a flush draw, or a hand like 67 for two overcards and a gutshot straight draw. Some of the people in on the flop probably have hands like 89 that they think are drawing to 6 outs but are really drawing totally dead and you want to collect as many bets as you can from these hands. Even if a total blank comes on the turn (what is a total blank at this point? Pretty much any card besides the two nines is going to potentially help someone) you aren't going to reasonably expect BB to raise your bet. Right now you are most likely way ahead and I think you should collect all the bets you can. The pot has become tremendous and basically unmanageable but that isn't a terrible thing because due to this board lots of people are going to be willing to put in bets drawing dead. If an awful turn card like an A or a 5 hits you will have to deal with it but right now you have the best hand a huge percentage of the time.

Tell me, what is your great plan to protect your hand against this field in this ginormous pot on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said there was a "great plan", only a better one. Like I said in my previous post...I look at this situation and say, "This sucks."

You said, "The way the flop played out, three-bet for value and it isn't close. You want to make this pot very large because you have a very very good chance of winning it."

You do NOT have a very very good chance of winning this hand, not even close. I mentioned in another post in this thread...Pokerstove 99 with this flop against 5 random hands and you are 20.6%. Think about it a sec. Probably more than half the deck beats you here.

There is only so much we can control. Betting the flop will not force mistakes from any of the hands that we fear. It will take a little luck, but if things fall into place on the turn, we may be able to face at least some of the field with 2 big bets that will give them poor odds for a gutshot or even an overcard draw assuming that some of their overcard outs won't be clean. Building the pot with what is really a bad hand with some potential only eliminates that option on the turn.

Basically, you're WAY overvaluing 99 with this flop 6-handed.

Fantam

06-05-2005, 08:48 AM

Grunching:

I dont think that it is possible to protect your hand on the flop. So I would prefer to wait to see whether the turn card is favourable. Then depending upon the flop action, I would either bet or try for a check-raise (assuming a good turn card).

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove this against random hands and you win 20.6% of the time. I look at 99, that flop, six players, and say "This sucks."

[/ QUOTE ]
The random hands thing really doesn't work very well. Due to the preflop action, there is quite a bit more weight on your opponents:
-Not having big pocket pairs
-Not having AK, AQ etc
You have to think of the kinds of hands that are going to be willing to put multiple bets in on this flop. So many hands are going to call call call here drawing totally dead. And if you get them to call three bets total, yes each call is individually +EV for them (often times NOT because they are drawing dead) but putting three bets total isn't because they don't have enough equity. 20% equity in a 6 way pot is enough equity that you make money on every bet that goes into the pot. I like exploiting edges in pot equity to make money in multiway pots, and I think that is the best way to make money in this one.

I just don't see a way to have significant fold equity on the turn given your position, etc. The pot is still going to be tremendous, but depending on the turn card you will likely still have quite the equity edge. I think the best way to play this is to just pump the pot because it's going to be ridiculous difficult to get people to fold the turn, and even when you bet the turn you're going to be giving any reasonable draw (overcards, a gutshot, any pair) odds to draw out on you. Since you likely won't have any fold equity (and thus can't make money by forcing other players to choose between -EV calls and 0 EV folds) I think the best play is to make money by making other players make +EV calls but pushing your pot equity edge.

-Still thinking about it, but I'd like to hear further reasoning (especially what kind of plan you have for trying to protect your hand on the turn, and why you think a 20-16 equity edge isn't enough to push hard at this point).

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 08:55 AM

You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
.Pokerstove 99 with this flop against 5 random hands and you are 20.6%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like I've already said, these hands aren't exactly random. We can weight them, and the weightings that are appropriate lead us to likely have even more equity than 20%. But we only need >16.7% equity to have an equity edge in this pot, and if we have any equity edge at all we make money on every bet that goes into the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
It will take a little luck, but if things fall into place on the turn, we may be able to face at least some of the field with 2 big bets that will give them poor odds for a gutshot or even an overcard draw assuming that some of their overcard outs won't be clean.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we need to gauge the percentage of the time that we will actually be able to face the field with two big bets on the turn against the value we can make by having people that are drawing totally dead (89, 77) and the people that are drawing fairly slim (67, JQ) put in multiple bets on this flop.

The truth is, I think we're hardly ever going to be able to face the field with multiple big bets on the turn, and by now the pot is so tremendous even two big bets is going to get a call from a lot of hands (yes that will be great, but a lot of hands will probably call two big bets cold if we actually manage that even if we do three bet this flop for value).

You say I'm overvaluing my hand, but I am just trying to gauge the amount of EV we can glean from one option against another. 20% isn't the majority of the time, but it is an edge in a six handed pot.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 08:57 AM

After reading all the debate...

I fold the flop.

A, K, Q, J, T can all beat me.
Any Diamond can beat me.
Someone just betted/Raised the better - Even if its a small pair/Top pair(Board) i dont care.

And theres a straight Draw/If not already made.

Could debate it all day, But i fold and move on to my next hand.

einbert

06-05-2005, 08:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 09:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

How will a flop raise protect your hand? What hands that can outdraw you would be making a mistake by calling your flop bet? None.

*edit* NVM. It's early. I'm braindead. I see you are talking about equity and not protecting your hand, lol.

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 09:01 AM

After the raise, I fold yes.

Lets see what happens in this hand, If someone has a straight we have to hit set then pair the board.... Sounds unlikly.

Way to many cards can cripple the hand, Yes im folding to the raise.

And if i have reads, and i do call the raise... The turn will probably kill me anyway.

Lets see... Then you can all insult my poor play. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

ArturiusX

06-05-2005, 09:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After reading all the debate...

I fold the flop.

A, K, Q, J, T can all beat me.
Any Diamond can beat me.
Someone just betted/Raised the better - Even if its a small pair/Top pair(Board) i dont care.

And theres a straight Draw/If not already made.

Could debate it all day, But i fold and move on to my next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me guess, you don't raise preflop either? And your name is Lee Jones?

Kevin K.

06-05-2005, 09:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a dead possibility, though. This is a big pot already. Why pump the pot with a small edge when there is the possibility that you can force a few people into making mistakes on the turn?

You have a little equity here, but you cannot put any drawing hands in a position where they are making a mistake on the flop. The turn could be a different story.

Fundamental Theorem of Poker, I guess. When your opponents make mistakes you gain. So on and so forth.

I would be interested to hear from some other folks because I'm sure that you and I could go 'round in circles forever without someone else's perspective, lol.

I need to sleep. It's 9:14 am.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

einbert

06-05-2005, 09:14 AM

Okay here's a different approach to this problem.

Let's go from the point that you have checked, called one, BB has raised, everyone called and the action is back to you.

Now if you bet I am approximating your equity (on average, obviously the ranges of hands against us are very very wide) at around 21%. Therefore on each additional bet that goes into the pot, you make

-1 + .21(6) = 0.26 small bets
So the EV of a raise is approximately 0.26 SB if BB never reraises us. If BB reraises us X% of the time and the field always calls two more (they should) our EV for a threebet here is
-1 -1(X) + .21(6)+(X).21(6) =
0.26x+0.26 small bets

Now on the turn it is so hard to say what our equity is, but I ran some pokerstove sims to try to figure out what it would be on various cards. Anyway on a blank it turns out that your equity is something like 40%, on bad cards your equity is pretty bad (this does support the argument for waiting until the turn of course).

On a bad card, the plan is to check/fold? What percentage of the deck is bad cards? Isn't the pot too large to fold to some 'bad card's? Of course this line of thought also supports waiting for the turn because bloating the pot now is going to make the turn harder to play on a lot of cards.

So on the turn let's say our equity is something like 40% and we put out a bet and get called in a few places, we make a profit (in small bets) of
-2 + (.4)(2+2N) where N is the number of people that call our bet. If someone raises our turn bet what the hell do we do, well that shouldn't happen often when we are ahead.

Jesus this hand is too complicated to model past the flop/turn action, but we can plug some numbers into X and N to see what the difference is in profit between the various plans of attack. Now BB raising our turn bet is excellent if he gets anyone to fold or make a -EV call which gives us a load of cash but it is so hard to gauge how often he will do that.

X = 0
0.26 = -2 + (2+2N)
0.13 = N
We make a ton more by waiting until the turn

X =1
.52 = -2 + (2+2N)
.26 = N
ew we still make more money by waiting, by a long cry. And if we happen to get raised to protect our hand I guess that is just a nice bonus.

But still there is the possibility of getting lots of calls on the flop that we make money on and calls on the turn still. Yes I know that when people make mistakes we gain, but when people call one, then another, then another bet with a gutshot in an initial pot of 10SB we are gaining a lot, and it is kind of the same way here.

I am sort of new to the type of analysis I am doing and there is a decent chance I am making a huge oversight.

Okay okay okay I get it now, the real story is not so much our equity changing but the bet size doubling, we make a lot more on incorrect turn calls than we do on incorrect flop calls because the bet size is so much bigger. Also looking at it in relation to the size of the pot people are more likely to be making -EV calls (although still not very likely).

So yeah you guys were right along, the right play is to just call and bet out on the turn probably, depending on the turn card. Glad I got to see why this is the case. Poker is so confusing sometimes. I will have to do more thinking about/playing around with this type of situation, I should have just run all these numbers in the first place. Ugh I am disgusted with myself.

Fantam

06-05-2005, 09:20 AM

Grunching again:

If a "safe" turn card falls, I would bet for value. Also there would be a chance that either UTG or BB would raise to face the rest of the field facing 2 big bets. Then I would call the turn raise and re-evaluate on the river.

BB check-raised the flop so its possible he might have a set, but its also possible that he is pumping a draw.

If a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif fell I think I would check-call to 1 bet, but fold to 2 bets back.

If an A,5,K or Q fell I think I would check/fold.

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 09:37 AM

lee jones?

No its chris.

Preflop raise, In Mp/Late i do.

Hey if the outcome of this hand is that he wins Ill eat my words, If not i saves some BB?

I'm a beginner so can only learn /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Look forward to results.

einbert

06-05-2005, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
lee jones?

No its chris.

Preflop raise, In Mp/Late i do.

Hey if the outcome of this hand is that he wins Ill eat my words, If not i saves some BB?

I'm a beginner so can only learn /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Look forward to results.

[/ QUOTE ]

The outcome of the hand isn't what matters.

It's your pot equity in comparison to the pot size and the bet size you have to call to continue.

Folding the flop is a serious disaster.

Fantam

06-05-2005, 09:39 AM

I am glad that you now agree that it is worthwhile to wait to see the turn card before considering the rest of your play in this hand. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 09:40 AM

I need to learn this stuff then, But i see the chanses of AKQ, Any diamond falling

Are bigger than his chances to hit set/Full house? SO he'll lose alot of the time no?

So isn't this -EV in the long run?

I'm a beginner, here to learn - Not to be flamed.

edit: Oh and a 5. & maybe even a T

I know in micros they will on hold on to see the river so i'd lose this alot of times.

einbert

06-05-2005, 09:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a beginner, here to learn - Not to be flamed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to be flamed.

The key here is that the pot is huge, and even if you will only win this pot a very small amount of the time you would be correct to call one more small bet here. For example, if I only held the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and for some reason didn't have a second hole card I would still call here for one more bet on the flop. And I would be correct to do so, even though I'm only very rarely going to win this pot.

parappa

06-05-2005, 09:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh I am disgusted with myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be. Even though you decided your conclusions were wrong and changed them, you engaged in reasonable debate. Sometimes I feel this board gets taken over by witty one-liners and "that is so weak tight d00d!" When someone disagrees with the board, the proper idea is to explain to them why it should go one way or the other, not just say that it should. I appreciate that you're willing to start debate, and also that you're thinking about these problems rather than simply looking for a quick answer to pin on.

And, by the way, the way I read your post, you actually still do disagree with the main gist of the posts here, because you're claiming that it's better to push the equity edge on the turn than on the flop, where many posters are talking about protecting their hand on the turn and simply pinning on the SSH chapter in question without arguing why or not it might apply. I think that you're right that this hand is unprotectable with that many bets in the pot, and I found your equity estimations for the turn valuable.

So, keep posting stuff like that, and feel free to change your mind.

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 10:56 AM

yeh although atleast we have chance to get backdoorflush, Hold the lowest straight.

Vs what we currently hold which is top pair(Before turn/River) hence i fold this.
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
-Still thinking about it, but I'd like to hear further reasoning (especially what kind of plan you have for trying to protect your hand on the turn, and why you think a 20-16 equity edge isn't enough to push hard at this point).

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason the equity reasoning doesn't follow here is that I'm folding far too often before the river to actually collect on it. Think about it this way:

The equity edge says that I'm investing 1 SB to collect 1.2 SB (it's still a small edge, not a big one). But that number assumes I see the turn and river. If the action heats up and I fold before the showdown, I forfeit the initial SB that I invested. Since it's *VERY* likely that I'm going to fold this one more than 1/2 of the time (I'm thinking that it happens almost 2/3 of the time), this play is very very thin. Folding this exactly half the time has EV = +.2 SB in a pot that's probably going to be 10+ BB -- it's basically irrelevant. That number dips to EV = 0 when I fold just 55% of the time, and it goes downhill fast from there.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After the raise, I fold yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 500 billion to one?? Okay, it's only 24 to 1. But I'm holding an overpair and closing the action. You've *MUST* at least see the turn. The *WORST* case is that you're chasing a straight, but in every other case, a 9 saves you and you're getting odds for it. And in just a few cases, I'm actually ahead.

iNsChris

06-05-2005, 11:54 AM

didnt see the huge pot, My bad!

Although the raise makes it 12:1 or so? hmmm still need to hit set then a boat.

Aaron W.

06-05-2005, 11:56 AM

Thanks for everyone who participated (and probably will continue to participate) in this thread. Learning how to think these hands through by engaging in deep thinking about the game is where the rubber meets the road.

Here's what happened.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, Hero folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (20.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, MP3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 23.75 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 5h 6c (straight, seven high).
UTG has Ac 2s (straight, five high).
MP2 has 6s Ts (straight, seven high).
Outcome: BB wins 11.87 BB. MP2 wins 11.87 BB.