Slim Value bet?

[ArturiusX]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero ????

Opponent is a nice 40/5 average player.

[wildwood]

Doesn't seem like a good value bet here when the ace falls on the river after the king turn card. (In the games I play in, lots of people play ace rag, but king rag is not as likely) If you bet and get called or raised, you're going to see a better hand most of the time in my opinion. I would check behind and show it down. (I think the chances are less than 50% of betting and getting called by a worse hand) fwiw

[einbert]

Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

[aK13]

I'd probably check behind here.

[Backstabr]

Check behind. What could he call with that you beat? May if his went to showdown stat is way high.

If he c/r's, its a pretty clear fold.

[Buckmulligan]

I think there is no value in betting here for value, but perhaps a very small amount in betting to fold QJ. Still, though, we check.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still close, but I check behind. Villian might very well fold a 66-TT that was played this way to our river bet.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still close, but I check behind. Villian might very well fold a 66-TT that was played this way to our river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice point. I check behind here - not out of fear of Villain holding an ace but because he almost certainly folds to a river bet if he is actually beat.

[hmkpoker]

Something to keep in mind when choosing between a value bet and a free showdown-

1) Are you more than 50% sure that you're ahead?
2) If you're behind, how likely is it that the hand that he has that beats you is very strong and he's planning a check-raise?

I personally would take the showdown. There's a lot he could have called down, including an ace. You're basically hoping he called a small pocket or a worse flop pair.

[ArturiusX]

Yeah I checked, he showed T5 and MHIG

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I checked, he showed T5 and MHIG

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, make a note of his incredibly loose SB defense, will be good to know he has a VERY wide range of hands when he calls your LP raise from the SB next time.