Fold JJ to a random big stack steal on the button?

[TheNoodleMan]

Villain has just stolen the last pot with a simailar preflop bet.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1065)
UTG (t530)
Button (t5140)
Hero (t1265)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t900</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?? </font>

do I fold my way in or take a stand and go for the win?

[lastchance]

Move in, I think.

ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) says calling and winning is 33% of prize pool. Folding is 23% of prize pool.

33% * x = 23%

x = 70%... So you need about 70% to win here.

Against a very wide range, JJ's that good. If Villain's been pushing every other hand on the bubble, this is a call. Otherwise, I'd fold...

[TheNoodleMan]

thanks, anyone else?

[Scuba Chuck]

I think this could go either way. I'm pretty sure the concensus will wind up being whether a player maximizes ITM, or playing for first. Shorty is likely going to be playing one of the next two hands for all his chips. I definately see the dilemma. This, I think, is a style issue.

[GoldenHorde]

Very tough i'm sure alot of people will say call here, but my gut tells me this is a fold.

[Karak567]

If I am the button I'm pushing any two. Does he seem like a competent player?

If so I think you can put his range on any two and you know what to do from there.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am the button I'm pushing any two. Does he seem like a competent player?

If so I think you can put his range on any two and you know what to do from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think you can put anybody but 2+2ers and a few players on any two. And that requires a previous, extensive read.

[lastchance]

No reads? That's what I was really asking about. Without a read at a low buyin SNG, I make the laydown here.

[tigerite]

This may sound crazy, but bear with me, what about just calling? It leaves you on 365, but gives the chance for the BB to move all in for very little more, which the big stack will call, and if you call that, you have to lose to _both_ to finish 4th. On the other hand, BB folds, move in on the flop (obviously), for sure it will be called, but so would your push, and this gives the small chance of BB getting involved too, and more of a "lock" on 3rd.

[KidNapster]

Poosh

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
This may sound crazy...

[/ QUOTE ]
that sounds crazy. I'm pushing or folding.

[Sykes]

Call. I'll take a 70/30 to double up on the bubble. Also, if you win this 70/30 and knock one of the other players out, you will have T3000-3500 and have a good chance of winning the tournament.

Play for first when you can.