Bubble Decision

[THATWACOKID]

Alright guys this is my first post in this forum and I'm a n00b to SnGs, so if it's pretty obvious go easy on me.

200 on party

Villian seems pretty good. He's been really aggessive the whole time, but in the right spots.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t4050)
Button (t810)
SB (t625)
BB (t4515)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t810</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t4515 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t5425

Easy fold? Anyone like a call here?

[TStokes]

I think he might be on a steal thinking your bluffing so he could have a wide range of hands. I cant really decide if I would call or fold here but im leanings towards folding. I think originally I would push preflop.

[pergesu]

Nah, SB and button both have really small stacks. There's no real reason you should be gambling here. You're probably a big favorite against his restealing range, but you're also a lock for the money, and not far behind him at all. You can pass here and still play for first.

[DasLeben]

This is a very easy fold, for the reasons pergesu mentioned.

[lastchance]

Hero either pushes or folds preflop. Raising to t600 just lets a very smart Villain push any 2, where you almost always have to fold.

I think pushing AQs preflop is profitable here.

And no, you shouldn't be playing the $215's yet, no matter how good a ring game player you are.

[THATWACOKID]

Just outta curiosity, say I push, if villian played perfectly what range should he call with?

[adanthar]

This is one of those times where I may limp because I'd rather not fold but raising ranges from bad to horrible.

If he pushes, I fold anyway, but most of the time they either don't know the right play or are too scared of the limp to do much about it.

Ideally, a short stack pushes and my problem is solved.

[lastchance]

Depends on what other hands you're pushing. If, 99+, AQs, is the worst hand you push, Villain is only a favorite with AA-QQ. You're a favorite over AK, JJ....

Plus since confrontations with another big stack are incredibly lousy on the bubble, I doubt calling QQ is a good idea.

What's more worrying is that this is a UTG push, which means you have to go through Button and SB, which decreases the all-important FE.

With AQs, I think this is a push at the $215's against a very good villain, and I don't think it's close.

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
With AQs, I think this is a push at the $215's against a very good villain, and I don't think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I definitely agree. I was scared of placing 4th, villian could obviously tell and took advantage of me like a drunken little girl.

[smcannon]

If he wants to steal, let him steal. When it's bubble time and my stack is in good shape, I have no problem folding to let the bigger stack suck up the chips if it means that the small stacks are at risk to lose more.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Just outta curiosity, say I push, if villian played perfectly what range should he call with?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't done an ICM on it, but I would guess that he could only call with somewhere close to a 65% edge against your range of hands. In the Preflop Quiz post with 3k/3k/1k/1k stacks, the 3k stack should only call the push of the other 3k stack if he has a 70.5% edge against his range of hands. So if the the 3k is pushing any 2 cards, he could only call with 99+. This hand is somewhat different since the villian will not be out if he calls and loses.

So he would be down to 15.3% of the prize pool (assuming 50/30/20) if he calls and loses, he would be up to 47.24% if he calls and wins and 36.37% if he folds. If you run the math, he need to have a 66% edge against your range of hands to call here. So if you are pushing with any two cards, he should call with 77+/AKs/AQs. If you turned your AQs face up, he should only call you with AA/KK/AKs/AKo and that is it.

Brad

[lastchance]

Running the numbers through my theoretical AK-AQ, 99+ range, opponent calls with KK+, and that's it. The problem with pushing trash though, is that the small stacks have a bigger calling range than the big ones, and so you can't push any 2 here. (at least I don't think)

AQs should be a no-brainer though, by far.

[ethan]

I like a limp preflop here, for the reasons adanthar mentioned.

As an aside, if you're going to raise and fold to a push you might as well raise less.

[Newt_Buggs]

I like a limp here as well against most players. Pushing this is only marginally +EV

[lastchance]

Another interesting way to play this, but what do you when BB pushes though? And if you fold, isn't this bleeding off chips?

[microbet]

I think betting exactly 810 is telling him you don't want to call a raise. I would think betting 500 would have the same effect on the small stacks, and be at least as likely to get a fold out of big stack - less likely to have him push back.

I'm not saying that is better than limping. If he is so aggressive that I think he is likely to reraise allin no matter what I wouldn't bet 500 since either the bubble will pop right away or he will become the 2nd stack, giving me a lot more power.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
I think betting exactly 810 is telling him you don't want to call a raise. I would think betting 500 would have the same effect on the small stacks, and be at least as likely to get a fold out of big stack - less likely to have him push back.



[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. The t810 raise just screams I just want the BB to call. A 500 raise would have accomplished the same thing.

I dont like an outright push b/c the play is only marginally +EV at best. A limp would probably be better, b/c its risks less chips, and, to some players, screams monsters, and theyd be less apt to reraise.

So my order of plays:

Raise 500 &gt; Limp &gt; Raise 810 &gt; Raise All in