Unconventional KQ

[BottlesOf]

MP is a real loose passive fish. CO I don't have much experience with, but he's on the aggressive side, he could be a LAG and over agressive, but I'm not prepared to say that just yet.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

River: (16.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks...

[Joe826]

i think the only thing you could be worried about here is MP having a flush. even if MP does, he's shown that he doesn't intent on raising it. you can check, and MP will probably bet his/her flush (if they even have it), or you can bet, and they will just call with their flush.

either way, it costs you 1 BB when you're behind but you loose lots of money when you're ahead, which is a good amount of the time.

[gaming_mouse]

Johnny,

Can you explain your thinking on the flop c/raise? That is, all the goals that you thought it might accomplish.

I think the relevant questions on your river check are:

1. does an overpair like AA bet to your check? This is doubtful, but possible.

2. does the overpair call a bet? Again, it's hard to say, but I think he might.

3. does an overpair ever bluff raise here? because if you did bet, i think you'd have to fold to a raise. yet you cannot do this is there is any reasonable chance of folding the best hand. this is of course in argument in favor of your line.

4. a check/fold would be sweet, but probably incorrect.

[BottlesOf]

I have a backdoor flush draw, two overcards (although a little tainted) and a gutshot, I think I have pretty solid equity here. I'm not that concerned with domination, all he did was raise preflop.

I think my flop c/r is a good semibluff, that may clean up outs and also may back the preflop raise off a better hand sometimes (AQ/AK-- if I bet a blank turn, he may not continue).

It just sort of seemed like a good idea at the time, I like it I think.

The river--I think I just froze up. When I 3-bet the turn, I sort of didn't even realize a flush was possible, and began to quesiton it a bit, although I think I'd still do it again as the way it all went down, overpair/set seemed more likely.

When the board pairs, I become a little more concenred about being against a boat, with the flush possibility still lingering a little. I decided to probably check call, as I think he'd bet trips or an overpair for value.

What do you think?

[mperich]

[ QUOTE ]
1. does an overpair like AA bet to your check? This is doubtful, but possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very doubtful IMO.

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2. does the overpair call a bet? Again, it's hard to say, but I think he might.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]

3. does an overpair ever bluff raise here? because if you did bet, i think you'd have to fold to a raise. yet you cannot do this is there is any reasonable chance of folding the best hand. this is of course in argument in favor of your line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding to a raise on this river is terrible. The pot is huge.

[ QUOTE ]
4. a check/fold would be sweet, but probably incorrect.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. A check-fold here would literally reduce me to tears, thats how incorrect it is.

And so the obvious choice of bet-&gt;call becomes clear.

-Mike

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

I think my flop c/r is a good semibluff, that may clean up outs and also may back the preflop raise off a better hand sometimes (AQ/AK-- if I bet a blank turn, he may not continue).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, getting AQ/AK to fold the turn would be good, and I think may justify the c/r. I don't see all the many outs you could be cleaning up though, as MP will be calling with any pair (ie, with something like Q9) based on your description.


[ QUOTE ]
When the board pairs, I become a little more concenred about being against a boat, with the flush possibility still lingering a little. I decided to probably check call, as I think he'd bet trips or an overpair for value.

What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he might, might bet trips for value but probably not an overpair.

He would call with trips for sure, and probably call with an overpair. Mike thought an overpair calls 100% here, but I think that's exaggerating. 80% at best.

Now, the question becomes: Is the extra money you make here by betting (rather than check calling) destroyed by the BB you lose those times you have to pay off a raise?

As a boat seems by far the most likely hand for villain, I think that it may be. Mike seemed to think not though.

In any case, to be clear (if it wasn't from my orig post) the choice is between bet/calling and c/calling.

Or, if you are sweet, c/folding../images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dave44]

I really think you should've bet the river. All I see is a LAG who you slowed down with the 3-bet so he most likely doesn't have a flush and could have many many hands that don't have a full house on the river though JT and J9 are possible, along with a real loose passive fish who has done nothing but call and call. I think you're ahead a large majority of the time and I think this gets checked through enough when they would've called your bet to make this a bad river check.

I don't like the flop raise much either against this LAG, reason being that you're knocking out the fish who's likely got jack and just contributing to the pot and risking a 3-bet from a player who appears aggressive.

[BottlesOf]

As it turned out, they both had AJ, and the river got checked through /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[gaming_mouse]

Interesting.... You'd think someone maniacal enough to 3bet that flop with overs would take a shot at the river too.

Anyway, now you have the read you would have needed, IMO, to defend a river bet. But I don't think the read you had at the time, which was essentially "seems aggressive, but I'm not sure," was enough. But maybe the 10/20 unknown is way more maniacal than the 5/10 unknown??