44

[joker122]

here's villain:
{{TOT HANDS: 129 - VP$IP: 22 - PFR: 11
WSD: 26 - FSB: 100 - FBB: 100
ASB: 29 - AF-TOT: 1.3 - AF-F: 2.5
AF-T: 1.8 - AF-R: 1.7}}


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: (3 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, SB folds.

River: (5 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[wheelz]

I think bet the river...

[mungpo]

With his stats I bet the river.

[dave44]

What was your flop plan? I like a bet since a check-raise catches SB in the middle. MP may raise a decent amount of high card hands you're ahead of to knock out SB.

[ghcnoob]

What in his stats says to you, "be the river?"

[Stormwolf]

[ QUOTE ]
I think bet the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure a guy with vip 22, which shows he has some understading of the game, would check if he had missed, I dont think betting the river is good idea, or even getting involved in the hand at all

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
What was your flop plan? I like a bet since a check-raise catches SB in the middle. MP may raise a decent amount of high card hands you're ahead of to knock out SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

but if he raises, and he will with various high cards, as you say, i have no idea where i stand. what do i do after he raises the flop? just call down all the way? that seems bad to me.

[mperich]

Thats how I play it for sure. Easy flop lead IMO. River is a bet also.

-Mike

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats how I play it for sure. Easy flop lead IMO. River is a bet also.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain why the flop lead is easy? i just said why i think it'd bad.

[mperich]

He's unlikely to have hit this board. You want him to raise to get the 3rd player out. Checkraising sucks if you catch the 3rd man in the middle in this case, and check calling doesnt gain you any more information than betting out. So yeah, lead. If he raises call down.

-Mike

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
check calling doesnt gain you any more information than betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but check raising does.

[dave44]

I don't think check-raising gives you much more information than calling because you'll seldom see a fold to the second bet.

In this spot, anyone in the hand likely has outs against us, so betting into the pfr where he will often raise hands we are ahead of to get the third guy out is good for us. Calling down from there is fine as you'll still be ahead enough to justify it given the size of the pot at that instance. If you don't wanna call down, I think bet/folding the turn would be ok, too, against passive opponents.

[spydog]

Lead the flop and hope the TAG raises overcards. Call down if he raises, but be prepared to check-fold if an ace falls on the turn or river.

[joker122]

he had 66 and MHING.

[Surfbullet]

His check-through on the flop, followed by the smoothcall on the turn looks like nothing, or a monster.

Therefore, I think betting this river is no good, since the TAG will fold his UI overcards and raise his monsters.

Check-call gives him a chance to take a shot at you again (though he may check through, which is fine, since he wasn't calling anyway) and lets you see a showdown, as I don't like to fold to raises on the river against thinking players if I can help it - I'd rather not have them think they can push me around.

Surf

Edit: didn't read result until after I decided what to say.

[steaknshake925]

[ QUOTE ]
His check-through on the flop, followed by the smoothcall on the turn looks like nothing, or a monster.


[/ QUOTE ]

surf, does something in villains stats indicate that smoothcalling the turn might mean monster? i seldom see anyone ever smoothcalling the turn with a big hand.

i agree with your reasoning about checkcalling the river. i also like leading the flop as we want him to take out the middle guy.

[steaknshake925]

when calling down, we are folding to an A or K, right? what about a Q?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His check-through on the flop, followed by the smoothcall on the turn looks like nothing, or a monster.


[/ QUOTE ]

surf, does something in villains stats indicate that smoothcalling the turn might mean monster? i seldom see anyone ever smoothcalling the turn with a big hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is very TAG, and doesn't go to showdown too much, indicating that he doesn't chase without odds - the pot is 4SB to him on the turn, so our fit-or-fold villain may even be folding stuff like AK here.

When he smoothcalls it is more likely that hes going for overcalls with a big hand, since he knows a raise will nearly always blow everyone out of the hand here, and there are few holdings he could have that have odds to call.

Since, IMO, his hand range is polarized to the very strong(monsters) and very weak(missed heart draws) ends of the spectrum check-call is best to try and snap off a bluff from the busted draws. Betting has little value.

Surf

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
His check-through on the flop, followed by the smoothcall on the turn looks like nothing, or a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I bet. Nothing (ace high) may call the river, monster will raise and I will fold. Lose the same as check-calling if he has a monster, win one more if he has nothing but would've called.

Surely you can fold to a raise on the river here...

edit: I didn't notice his wtsd... hmm...

[Cactus Cactus]

Honestly, I believe that betting into the pre flop raiser in hopes that he will raise on overcards and call him down is wrong. If you're not already beat by a J or 8 or PP 55+ you are dodging many cards. I do not see calling down +EV.

Forget that the button checked flop. I think what many others are missing is that being in the position where you are is like being the button on the betting round of the flop where after the "real button" bets you get to see what the SB does before you are act. If he Check raises you save yourself a lot of money and get out of there.

But if he does fold I think that this is up for discussion. Do you check raise? or do you call? On a board like JJ8, I believe that if you call there stands a good chance that the button will bet again say an ace high reasoning it could be the best hand. This way, he bets the hand for you, and calling ends the betting round, if you bet he always has the option of raising which can lead into a hairy mess.

If river is not scary, I'd might go ahead and bet hoping for ace high to call.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His check-through on the flop, followed by the smoothcall on the turn looks like nothing, or a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I bet. Nothing (ace high) may call the river, monster will raise and I will fold. Lose the same as check-calling if he has a monster, win one more if he has nothing but would've called.

Surely you can fold to a raise on the river here...

edit: I didn't notice his wtsd... hmm...

[/ QUOTE ]

In many situations, against many opponents, I think it is correct to bet this river and force A-high to call.

However, this does not look like the type of opponent to call w/ A-high, given his overall TAG-on-the-side-of-weak stats, esp his WSD. Our only hope to get an extra bet out of a losing hand is to check and hope he A)bluffs B) value-bets A-high.

Surf