Should I Stay or Should I Go?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

'Stars $27 + 2 satellite to Sunday's $200 + 15 NLHE. Winner gets the buy-in, 2nd gets $28.

3 left

Button (4620)
SB (6135)
BB-Me (2745)

Level 50/100 (Yeah, it's been a bit wild)

Button has been fairly tight, but limps a lot. SB has been aggressive, showing his hand a lot when opponents fold. Showing bluffs, weak TP, middle pair, etc. IN other words, when he bets strong - wide range of hands.

I get K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB

Button limps, SB raises to 300, both call. (900)

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB bets 600

Your decision?

My decision and results later.

[Phill S]

Im pushing over the top.

Ive got a few outs, but mainly i dont think he has anything.

With the flush draw, and possible overcard outs i think this is great time for a semi-bluff; not to mention the winner takes all pay structure.

Phill

[djshawk]

If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, NEVER MAKE A -EV PLAY BECAUSE URE BETTER THAN THE FIELD AND U CAN OUTPLAY THEM LATER, OUTPLAY THEM NOW!!!!!!!!!(for online tourneys, I might accept someone folding a 56% edge preflop on a tourney where the blinds go up every 3 hours) This is such an obvious, obvious push, he has 19 outs to improve more realistcly like 14 to someone with a hand.

[RobGW]

How's he going to outplay them when they both have him outchipped 2:1? The time to outplay them is now. Push.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
This is such an obvious, obvious push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, NEVER MAKE A -EV PLAY BECAUSE URE BETTER THAN THE FIELD AND U CAN OUTPLAY THEM LATER, OUTPLAY THEM NOW!!!!!!!!!(for online tourneys, I might accept someone folding a 56% edge preflop on a tourney where the blinds go up every 3 hours) This is such an obvious, obvious push, he has 19 outs to improve more realistcly like 14 to someone with a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This brings me back to my post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=249 4486&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit= 25&Main=2494486&Search=true&where=&Name=27414&date range=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&b odyprev=#Post2494486)

In a winner take all (or close enough to it), I would push...

--LoO

[CarlSpackler]

I think folding is the worst option here. The SB is not a tight-ass, and he's going to make life miserable for you if you choose the 'fold and try and outplay them' option. You have to either push or call. I think you have 14 adjusted outs here, which means you're a slight favorite, 51.2%, against the SB HU. If you push, I think he would fold at least 10% of the time. Does this sound reasonable? Therefore, I think you have to push.

I think folding is the worst option, calling is better (since the blinds are so low), and pushing is the optimal play.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I get K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB

Button limps, SB raises to 300, both call. (900)

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I got this far into your post. Push.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Thanks for the replies. My thinking was similar to the responses, an average of about 11 outs twice if he was ahead and no way to be drawing dead,

I pushed, he called and showed K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif so I was actually ahead.

Unfortunately, the turn was the 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif and no /images/graemlins/spade.gif or 9 showed on the river to save me.