Beginner....concept I have issues with....

[primetimenole]

Ok, I havent been playing that long and I have a question. I just had a hand where I held JTs in middle position. There are 6 small bets preflop. The flop comes AQ5 rainbow with no flush draws giving me a gutshot straight draw with 4 outs to the nuts. I check the flop and the person behind me bets and there is one caller (8 small bets), so I call, getting 8-1 pot odds with 5-1 odds that I'll hit my straight by the river. The turn is a blank and I check again and the person behind me bets and the next guy calls again. So now there are 6.5BB in the pot and I would only get 6.5-1 pot odds on a 10-1 shot to hit my straight on the river so I fold.

My question is about the call after the flop. Am I really getting 5-1 that my straight will come in when I will likely fold my hand on the turn to a bet? How do I calculate my true odds on the flop bet when I'm pretty sure that someone will bet on the turn regardless what comes out?

Sorry if this is a 5th grade question but it seems like this happens quite a bit. I appreciate any help.

[Octopus]

Only consider the likelihood that you will hit on the next card, unless you will go to the river regardless.

On the other hand, also include the 2BB+ additional you will likely win if you get your straight on the turn and get called down. Assuming that you think you will get those bets, this is a call.

... and post stuff like this in the micro or beginners' forums.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I check the flop and the person behind me bets and there is one caller (8 small bets), so I call, getting 8-1 pot odds with 5-1 odds that I'll hit my straight by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a mistake. You should count the odds you have to hit the straight on the turn (1:10.5). This is becase you're only paying for one card, you'll often have to pay more to get to see the river. Calling still is an option since your outs are to the nuts and you recieve great implied odds. It's also important to consider if you have a back door flush draw (ie 3 card to a flush). In that case the flop call is easy.

The turn fold is correct.

I would also recommend the microlimits forum, cause you're playing 1/2 or less, right?

Good luck!

[primetimenole]

Yeah, I'm playing .5/1. I'll post there in the future. Thanks for your help

[ckessel]

It's not a 5th grade questions, it's an often misapplied concept. The 5-1 odds on the flop only apply if you're committed to seeing the rivercard, as it's 5-1 you'll fill your straight within 2 cards (turn and river).

If you're only calling the turn, you need 10-1. You could figure out your effective odds by adding up how much the flop and turn calls will cost relative to an estimated final pot. That'll tell you the effective odds based on your expected play on the turn, which is a better judge of whether the call make sense.

In this case, the flop call was a bit on the bubble. No, you don't have 10-1, but if you hit your turn card you'll get extra bets because you can raise the turn, and river bets are simply extra profit at tht point (implied odds). I'll frequently call a flop shooting for a gutshot with about 8-1 or 9-1 due to the implied odds (well, and board texture, don't go for it with a 2-flush showing on the flop).

Hope that helps.

[Bob T.]

Ok, on the flop, your getting 8-1 right now, but if you catch a king on the turn, you will be able to collect at least one big bet on the turn and river, actually probably a lot more, so when you include future action, you are probably getting somewhere between 12 and 16 to 1 on the call on the flop. Its an easy call.

On the turn, not only are the odds worse but the implied odds make it look like you will only be getting 8 or 9 to 1 with future action if you make the straight, so this makes it an easy fold.