NFL parity and tie-breakers

[Dynasty]

The final standings in the AFC are incredible, exciting, and distressing all at once.

AFC West Champions: Oakland Raiders 11-5
AFC South Champions: Tennessee Titans 11-5
AFC North Champions: Pittsburg Steelers 10-5-1
AFC East Champions: New York Jets 9-7
Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Wild Card: Cleveland Browns 9-7

Miami Dolphins 9-7
New England Patriots 9-7
Denver Broncos 9-7
San Diego Chargers 8-8
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Buffalo Bills 8-8
Baltimore Ravens 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
Houston Texans 4-12
Cincinnati Bengals 2-14

Overall, I love the competitiveness created by the parity in the NFL. When contrasted to Major League Baseball where the New York Yankees are pushing their payroll over $150 million while the smallest market teams can't afford half that much, the NFL looks fantastic. Exciting sports are created when teams of relatively equal strength are matched up. It's also great knowing that your team always has hope next year even if their performance in the current year is dismal. The difference between the best and worst teams is smaller in the NFL than any other sport.

However, when partiy clashes with playoff tie-breakers in a 16 game schedule, it starts feeling uncomfortable. (Disclosure: I'm a Patriots fan who just watch my team get knocked out of the playoffs by the Jets win over the Packers) It's a bit upsetting to see three 9-7 AFC teams (almost four if Chargers had held onto their lead today) miss the playoffs while the Jets and Browns get in based on tie-breakers. My Patriots ended the season in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC East with both the Jets and Dolphins. The Jets earned the championship based on the 3rd tie-breaker between themselves and the Patriots- better record against common opponents. I hate seeing my team, or another worthy team, getting eliminated from the playoffs in this way.

Of course, I have no solution to offer.

[David Ottosen]

The real equalizer in the NFL that creates the illusion of parity isn't the payrolls, its the unbalanced schedules that lead bad teams to do better and good teams to do worse. Take the Chicago Bears as a prime example.

[Oski]

I don't see ONE deserving team that was left out of the playoffs...The bottom line is you gotta win in December, just ask the Saints. The Pats were in control of their own destiny, but they went belly-up. The team that edged them out (Jets) beat the Pats in the second-to-last week - in New England no less. Justice was served, I like the system - same goes for Giants as well, they won their late games - and didn't back in like Atlanta

[pudley4]

The "unbalanced schedule effect" is a fallacy that has been perpetuated by the media. Especially now, with 32 teams in the league, the schedules are more balanced than ever.

Divisional rivals will face the same teams in 14 out of 16 games during the year. Take the NFC North (Vikings, Packers, Lions, Bears):

They play each other 6 times. They each play the Dolphins, Pats, Bills, Jets (AFC East), Bucs, Saints, Falcons, and Panthers (NFC South). That's 14 games against the same opponents. They only have non-common opponents twice. (Det-Ari/Dal, Chi-StL/Phi, Min-Sea/NYG, GB-SF/Was). 2 games aren't enough to cause the 8 game difference between GB and Chicago this year.

The Bears were not as good a team as their record indicated last year. They won a number of close games at the end, some on fluke plays. They were much closer to an 8-8 team than 13-3 (their actual record). Now factor in a number of injuries this year, poor quarterback play, and playing all their "home" games in Champaign, and you'll see that 4-12 is about right.

[Michael Davis]

Lucky they were to be 13-3, but the Bears were definitely a worthy playoff team last year, not an 8-8 average team.

Mike

[Homer]

The solution is for the 9-7 teams to get better and win an extra game or two so they don't have to worry about tiebreakers. It doesn't really matter which of the 9-7 teams get in anyway, because they will all be eliminated in the first round or in the divisional round.

-- Homer

[Homer]

The Bears had a fluke season last year. They were destined to lose a lot more games this year, with or without a more difficult schedule. I guess all those injuries didn't help matters much either, though...

-- Homer

[Michael Davis]

Homer and others,

The Bears "fluke" season was really just a fluke game against Cleveland that was applied to every other game.

The Bears defeated "paper tigers" Tampa Bay twice; one victory was a serious beatdown.

The first Mike Brown interception, against SF, was the culmination of a serious fourth quarter comeback. Aided by SF's conservative playcalling, the Bears thrashed the 49ers in the 4th quarter. Even if they were not the best team in this game, their win is only a fluke because of the way they won in OT. They still came back to get there.

The Bears got lucky against the Lions when Hanson missed a FG. Still, this game was going to overtime, too. And the Lions would have taken the wind.

All season, the Bears took it to the teams they were supposed to take it to. They thrashed Atlanta and Cincy in consecutive weeks in performances that just don't happen in the NFL that often.

The Bears were 13-3, not 10-6. The season was not a fluke, despite popular opinion. And anyone citing this year's results as evidence to last year's fluke really has no understanding of an NFL roster. Regardless of all of the injuries, which have been overwhelming, the Bears regressed in the offseason. They replaced Blake Brockermayer (sp?) and Tony Parrish with trash. They anointed Dez White a starting WR, and he is a subpar player. Last year and this year have nothing to do with each other. I cannot take last year's results to argue that Tennessee is a fluke, and you can't do it the other way around.

This has become rambling, but I think I made my points. I am not a fan of any NFL team in particular, so I have probably forgotten a few of the "fluke" games the Bears played last year and would appreciate being reminded. Otherwise, I completely disregard the claim that the Bears were a fluke.

Mike