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View Full Version : Odds of two people flopping a straight ?


theredpill6
06-04-2005, 07:05 AM
In the past two days, I've been getting screwed.

What are odds of two people flopping the same exact nut straight ?

I had Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif on this board:

Villain had Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

9/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

All-in on the turn. You know how this turns out.
What are the odds that happens ? Please tell me it is low because I'm about to lose it here.

I've had set over set 3 times in the last month. That is supposed to be rare so WTF is happening.

Yesterday I had 6 6 on this board

K T 6

villain had TT .

I won some money only to lose it all back on some crazy miracle flop.

I'm losing big pots and winning small ones.

theredpill6
06-04-2005, 07:30 AM
I'm never playing on a 20 % VPIP table ever again. I notice these bad beats because on my good hands I'm not making enough to cover these bad beats. Thus, I'm not quite sure I'm playing a +EV game on a 20 % VPIP table.

jason_t
06-04-2005, 08:29 AM
Getting dealt AA is rare. (I hope you see the points I'm making here.)

AaronBrown
06-06-2005, 05:13 PM
You have to be careful how you define things. Assume that you flop a straight. There are 9 different ways your opponent can flop the same straight, out of 1,081 possible hands. So the odds are 9/1,081 = 0.8%. However, with nine opponents at the table, and assuming your hand is a normal calling hand (otherwise, why would you still be in the pot?), the odds go up to 7.2%, or about 1 time in 14. It's not that unusual.

If the flop has three different ranks, and you hold a pair matching the lowest rank, your opponent has six ways to hold a higher set. 6/1,081 = 0.6%. With nine opponents, 4.9%.

ethan
06-06-2005, 06:36 PM
Maybe Omaha would be a better game for you.