Did I make a bad fold on this river

[Mizzles]

UTG stats:

{{TOT HANDS: 8,102, BB/100: 1.01
VP$IP: 20.9, PFR: 10.7, WSD: 31.1
Aggression: 2.18, folded rvr: 46.0, W$SD-C: 29.3
W$SD B/R: 74
steal: 30.7, CR: 2.09
AF---F: 2.73, ---T: 1.83, ---R: 1.55}}

BB stats (limited):

{{TOT HANDS: 56, BB/100: (17.86)
VP$IP: 23.2, PFR: 5.4, WSD: 33.3
Aggression: 0.26, folded rvr: 16.7, W$SD-C: 20.0
W$SD B/R: 0
steal: 25.0, CR: 0.00
AF---F: 0.44, ---T: 0.11, ---R: 0.20}}


Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

[Pepsquad]

Not a bad fold on the river (a bad non-fold on the turn). BB calls on the flop AND happily calls two more cold AND raises your turn bet! TPGK no good.

[PokerBob]

BB is not aggressive at all post-flop (small sample, but.....), and c/r's the turn into 2 guys who clearly like their hands. I'm giving him a 5 at least. I think I fold the turn.

[jogger08152]

I have NFC what hand this guy had. Absent a read, I'd have had to pay him off, I think. I'm dying to know what he showed down though.

[Mizzles]

I think a fold on the turn is definately warranted, but I wanted to see a non-heart on the river and call down. Once the heart hit that locked the decision to fold here.

Results to follow.

[Senor Choppy]

This would be an easy turn fold if you had a few hundred hands on the BB instead of 56. Still, no aggression at all from him postflop even after 5 orbits probably means he has a monster here, unless it's a flush draw with a 6.

[mc1023]

Your getting 17:1 on the river and an important stat you need to know here is FOLD BB % for the big blind. He seems weak tight and passive from his stats, I really can't put him on a 5 unless he regularly defends his blinds with just about anything and never folds.

Definently payoff the river if your going to call the turn raise, pot is too big by that time.

And he did not checkraise both guys on the turn, he only checkraised hero, possible a AJ trying to push out UTG?

I could see a weak-tight BB coldcalling 3bets preflop with AJ.

Fold turn but if you call turn I think you must call river, pot is too big.

[Mizzles]

BB showed down AQ, we would have split

UTG had AJ

[mab_nyc69]

looks like BB had you beat regardless of the heart on the river. Good thing a heart fell becuase it prob saved you a bet. Fold the raise on the turn.

[ggbman]

This hand is bad because if you want to fold, you should do so on the turn. On the flop it looks like the BB might be drawing to hearts, but his turn action makes that unlikely, so the river heart isn't too meaningful, especially when it goes bet, call.

[TryingHard]

I don't think this fold was that bad based on the BB stats.. Also as you would only of split the pot. Your odds on the river were only 7.1 to 1 rather than the 14.25 to 1 if you won the hand

[DcifrThs]

for the about 14 hands the BB played, he bet or raised only 1/4 of the times he called postflop. now he calls 2 cold and c'rs you on the turn...time to release it there.

-Barron

[jayheaps]

Is it el diabo who says "if you have to ask, then it was a bad laydown."

[adios]

This looks to be a case where a small number of statistical results led you astray in this hand. Wouldn't it have been better to simply use straightforward logic to try and read hands here than rely on some stats?

Just to point a couple of things out:

BB called pre-flop after a raise and re-raise with the betting not closed.

BB called a raise and a re-raise again on the flop.

The Ace of hearts is on the board.

BB almost certainly doesn't have a 5 or a 6 for that matter. Likewise BB almost certainly doesn't have a pocket pair less than Aces. On the turn the BB check raises when an offsuit 6 comes. All this leads to the conclusion in my mind that the BB has an Ace maybe AA in the pocket for a set but not nearly as likely as a pair of Aces with a kicker . Given the action of the UTG+1 he doesn't have a 5 or a flush either as he looks to be toast. How good is your kicker in this spot? The fact that you have to overcall makes a call more dubious but this pot is laying you a lot for the overcall.