river decision-10/20 [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Zygote

06-04-2005, 02:49 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (7 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 10 BB

wheelz

06-04-2005, 02:53 AM

Yeah, fold.

Xhiggy

06-04-2005, 03:00 AM

although dependent on your read of the BB, I would fold the flop. calling is probably close. I don't like the raise at all.

Zygote

06-04-2005, 03:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
although dependent on your read of the BB, I would fold the flop. calling is probably close. I don't like the raise at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling on the flop is not close! (please explain yourself???) Raising is better than calling, although, calling would not be bad. Regardless, I was only concerned about the river.

7ontheline

06-04-2005, 03:10 AM

I would usually call this - any reads here? It sure looks like BB had a piece of the flop and UTG hit his Ace, which could easily be a worse kicker. Do you think it's greater than 5-1 that both players have you beat? If you call, you can certainly fold to a 3-bet, I think. I suck at 10/20 so far though, don't listen to me.

Xhiggy

06-04-2005, 03:14 AM

the BB betting into a 4-person pot is very likely representing a piece of the board. the raise on the flop would be okay if it were heads up between you and the BB, but with 4 people seeing the flop, almost certainly someone got a piece of it. and you're drawing to 6 outs at best, when in reality it's probably much less than that. and by just calling the flop, you've almost announced your hand to everyone already. meaning you'll lose even more when you're beat and win less when you do hit.

wheelz

06-04-2005, 03:20 AM

I think I may be being results oriented, because every time I find myself in this situation where I figure that could be an ace with a worse kicker raising, I'm beat. So I fold here now.

edit: I do think you can only call here with a read.

wheelz

06-04-2005, 03:21 AM

You can't fold this flop. 10:1 with 2 overs and a backdoor flush draw.

Zygote

06-04-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would usually call this - any reads here? It sure looks like BB had a piece of the flop and UTG hit his Ace, which could easily be a worse kicker. Do you think it's greater than 5-1 that both players have you beat? If you call, you can certainly fold to a 3-bet, I think. I suck at 10/20 so far though, don't listen to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG could've easily made two pair with that Ace, which i thought was most likely. The call is close, though. I think i would've needed a read to make it profitable.

Xhiggy

06-04-2005, 03:29 AM

I never said calling was very wrong, and is probably very close to folding. but given the action so far, a good portion of the time many of your outs aren't clean and you could easily be drawing dead.

wheelz

06-04-2005, 03:33 AM

The preflop raise was just called, then there was a bet and call before hero on the flop. There's no reason to think hero could easily be drawing dead.

Rudbaeck

06-04-2005, 06:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I never said calling was very wrong, and is probably very close to folding. but given the action so far, a good portion of the time many of your outs aren't clean and you could easily be drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't we seeing monsters under the bed? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

We raise exactly because our outs may not be clean. As we have to call, raising to clean up outs is better.

Stormwolf

06-04-2005, 06:45 AM

Since UTG didnt raised PF we can rule an big ace so when he raises the river when the ace gets there he either made a two pair with it or he have it beat, if he had something like A8 he would just call, unless he is a maniac I like the fold

King Yao

06-04-2005, 06:56 AM

The problem is that your check on the Turn probably confused both players (I'm not saying checking on the Turn is incorrect though). The first guy could have just a 9, and bet out on the River due to the checks on the Turn (maybe with the intention of folding to a raise with the Ace on the River). The second guy could have just a weaker pair of A's...again, due to the checks on the Turn, maybe he called with AT on the Flop (any read?)...could also be A8, A7 (gutshot with an Ace).

I like the responses as far as "only call if you have a read". Without a read, I think its a very close decision. I'm going to guess that you folded the winning hand (or at least the hands weren't shown) or else you probably wouldn't be thinking about it and posting it.

Nikla

06-04-2005, 07:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling on the flop is not close! (please explain yourself???) Raising is better than calling, although, calling would not be bad. Regardless, I was only concerned about the river

[/ QUOTE ]

How come you think raising flop is better than calling?

wheelz

06-04-2005, 08:10 AM

I had a read, wish I didn't.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 5h 4h (straight, six high).
Hero has Ac Qh (one pair, aces).
Outcome: BB wins 9.50 BB.

JohnnyHumongous

06-04-2005, 08:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Aren't we seeing monsters under the bed? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

We raise exactly because our outs may not be clean. As we have to call, raising to clean up outs is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a highly touted piece of strategy that I often hear of, that makes absolutely no logical sense to me.

Chris Daddy Cool

06-04-2005, 09:07 AM

you guys are idiots. why is raising this flop better than calling?

and even if raising is better than calling, it at best is "pretty close" between the two.

Rudbaeck

06-04-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a highly touted piece of strategy that I often hear of, that makes absolutely no logical sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Might be more applicable at full ring, I doubt you can get A5 out here. Maybe you can get rid of Q5 though. But a raise can easily pay for itself here.

10sb in the pot, 4 players. Our equity might be something like 30%. If our fold gets rid of one player it might well jump as high as 40%, in which case we already paid for the raise.

After running pokerstove some I think it's tremendously close, and it basically doesn't matter if you call or raise. Your share of the pot is going to remain pretty much the same either way.

Thus we shouldn't raise, as we can then hopefully raise out someone on the turn if we hit. (If we raise the flop and hit the turn we'll give correct odds for more draws.)

Folding the flop isn't an option either way.

dave44

06-04-2005, 11:57 AM

I think a raise is fine here. You have plenty of outs, but they are cleaner with less opponents. You can force one opponent to call 2 so he's likely gone. On the turn they check to you and you take the free river and evaluate what to do from there. What's the problem here? This seems like an easy concept thats been preached to me since microlimits.

Would you raise if you could face 2 players with 2 cold instead of just one?

Zygote

06-04-2005, 04:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that your check on the Turn probably confused both players (I'm not saying checking on the Turn is incorrect though). The first guy could have just a 9, and bet out on the River due to the checks on the Turn (maybe with the intention of folding to a raise with the Ace on the River). The second guy could have just a weaker pair of A's...again, due to the checks on the Turn, maybe he called with AT on the Flop (any read?)...could also be A8, A7 (gutshot with an Ace).

I like the responses as far as "only call if you have a read". Without a read, I think its a very close decision. I'm going to guess that you folded the winning hand (or at least the hands weren't shown) or else you probably wouldn't be thinking about it and posting it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your response, i love your material BTW and just ordered your book. Why is there such a long delivery wait?

Also, i have no idea whether or not i had the winning hand (BB folded). I just thought the decision was close and should post for a well-rounded analysis.

afk

06-04-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you guys are idiots. why is raising this flop better than calling?

and even if raising is better than calling, it at best is "pretty close" between the two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll raise this flop in my low stakes games as I want a free card. However I don't know how the 10/20 plays so I would think it's a lot closer.

joker122

06-04-2005, 05:30 PM

i would fold here. on the flop and turn you have defined your hand as a big ace. on the river you hit, and they know this, yet they still bet and raise into you.

bobbyi

06-04-2005, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you guys are idiots. why is raising this flop better than calling?

and even if raising is better than calling, it at best is "pretty close" between the two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll raise this flop in my low stakes games as I want a free card. However I don't know how the 10/20 plays so I would think it's a lot closer.

[/ QUOTE ]
The difference is that players are going to be more aggressive, so the bettor is more often going to three-bet the flop if you raise. You really don't want to be paying three bets to see the turn here which is why it is such a bad raise. You only have one player to potentially knock out with your raise and he isn't even behind you, so the benefit of raising does not outweigh all the times that your play fails. You are right that in smaller games against more passive opponents, the free card raise is much less likely to backfire and is thus a better play.

afk

06-04-2005, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you guys are idiots. why is raising this flop better than calling?

and even if raising is better than calling, it at best is "pretty close" between the two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll raise this flop in my low stakes games as I want a free card. However I don't know how the 10/20 plays so I would think it's a lot closer.

[/ QUOTE ]
The difference is that players are going to be more aggressive, so the bettor is more often going to three-bet the flop if you raise. You really don't want to be paying three bets to see the turn here which is why it is such a bad raise. You only have one player to potentially knock out with your raise and he isn't even behind you, so the benefit of raising does not outweigh all the times that your play fails. You are right that in smaller games against more passive opponents, the free card raise is much less likely to backfire and is thus a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man, that's kind of what I figured but it's nice to have it laid out like that.

afk

06-04-2005, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i would fold here. on the flop and turn you have defined your hand as a big ace. on the river you hit, and they know this, yet they still bet and raise into you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that the river raiser would take a different line (ie. call-reraise) with A9 or A6?

joker122

06-04-2005, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would fold here. on the flop and turn you have defined your hand as a big ace. on the river you hit, and they know this, yet they still bet and raise into you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that the river raiser would take a different line (ie. call-reraise) with A9 or A6?

[/ QUOTE ]

no i don't, mainly because i've never seen this happen, but also because it's no sure thing hero would raise.

afk

06-04-2005, 05:55 PM

Crap. I got it into my head somehow that you said you would call when you clearly said fold - I was just wondering what other hands you'd put the raiser on - but it's not important now seeing as you'd fold.

King Yao

06-04-2005, 07:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your response, i love your material BTW and just ordered your book. Why is there such a long delivery wait?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think both my publisher and retail stores (like Amazon) underestimated the demand for the book, as well as the wholesalers. A whole bunch of books went out to the wholesalers last week, so it should fill up the pipelines soon. My publisher (Pi Yee Press) is small and not known for poker books. Two Plus Two does a great job of getting books out to everyone when their books are released, that's because they probably have a great track record with sales at major chains and online stores. On the other hand, Pi Yee Press is known mostly for selling blackjack books, which are not nearly as much in demand as poker books. And this is the first poker book they have published, as well as the first book by another author other than Stanford Wong.