10-20 AK hand - What do my opponents have?

[JTG51]

I'm UTG+1 with A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif .

UTG limps, I raise and my left hand opponent (LHO) 3 bets. Everyone else folds, UTG calls.

UTG just sat down 5 minutes ago, I don't know anything about him. LHO has been in the game for maybe an hour. He's a pretty loose limper, but I haven't seen him do anything unusual yet.

Does anyone like a cap here? I've been making this play more lately when I raise with AK and AQ and get 3 bet. I think you often times gain a lot more than one SBs value for the cost. I decided to just call this time.

3 of us see the flop for 3 bets each.

Flop: Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I've got a gutshot, a back door nut flush draw and two overcards which may or may not be good.

UTG bets, I call, LHO raises and UTG calls. I call again.

Turn: [Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ] A /forums/images/icons/club.gif

UTG bets again. I see LHO grabbing enough chips to raise again, so I fold.

I wasn't really happy with my decisions on any street. What do you put my opponents on, and how would you have played it on each street?

Thanks.

[pufferfish]

Hope you don't mind a micro-limit rookie taking a shot at this. /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

I'll put LHO on a big pair AA-JJ, which explains the pre-flop 3-bet. More likely that he has QQ or JJ, giving him at set to protect. Less likely AA or KK because you have one of each. Also, would it be typical at this table/limit/situation for someone to bet an overpair so strongly? (Edited in: except for the set of Aces on the turn.)

Hard to say about UTG since he's an unknown. Maybe AQo, QJx, KTx, or maybe he's just a nut playing garbage. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I think I would have played it the same way you did.

[mikelow]

I would have folded the flop. I don't like the cold call because
you are really needing the gutshot or the backdoor flush. Even an ace or king aren't clean outs.

On the turn, it looks like two pair (or even a set) so the fold is clear-cut.

[Tyler Durden]

You say maybe he's playing QJx, KTx or maybe just garbage. If those two hands are unsuited, those are garbage hands in my book. Players waste a lot of chips by playing hands like QTo, QJo, KJo, and KTo in early position.

[Tyler Durden]

Deciding what to do preflop with AK when it's been 3-bet is something I've been struggling with. It has a lot to do with what your opponents raising standards are, of course. Against a player whose raises I respect, I'd just call the 3-bet. You may be up against AA-JJ. AK is likely but I think AQ is less likely b/c most solid players would muck AQ to a raise.

On the turn, there aren't too many hands you can beat if you call or raise here. You lose to QQ, JJ, AQ, and chop with AK. I suppose it's possible he'd 3-bet with TT but that's not going to happen often enough for calling/raising to be the correct play. You have 4 clean outs (the tens). But even if you spike one of them, you may end up chopping.

I like your turn fold.

[pufferfish]

After I posted I was thinking if the other two EP's were reasonable (unknown with UTG) then your outs are pretty chewed up. I'm more inclined to agree with mikelow that a fold on the flop is best.

On the other hand, for the same price, you could have raised UTG's flop bet. If LHO 3-bets and UTG still calls you would probably feel better about folding. If UTG folds, then at least it's HU, but I think still a tough call.

[pufferfish]

You say maybe he's playing QJx, KTx or maybe just garbage. If those two hands are unsuited, those are garbage hands in my book.

Agreed, I didn't state that clearly. Also, there's worse garbage that I've seen people play. UTG could have Q3, J3, or Q/ J with some other lousy kicker. Now that's real garbage. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Edited in: One last thought, UTG is playing any two suited and takes the hand when another heart falls on the river. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[JTG51]

Mike, I think we either have a little confusion about terminology, or if my original post wasn't clear. You said you don't like the cold call on the flop. I only called one bet at a time, when I hear cold call I think of calling more than one bet at a time.

Are you saying you would have folded on the flop when UTG bet, without seeing what LHO was going to do? It's certainly an option, I'm just trying to clarify.

[mikelow]

I would call on the flop, but would fold the turn unless a heart or ten came. An ace or king isn't a clean out.

[andyfox]

UTG has K-T, LHO has the other 2 Aces.

I'd have folded on the flop because I'm caught between a rock and a hard place. LHO 3-bet a UTG limper and a UTG+1 raiser pre-flop. Now UTG bets into a flop with Q-J in it and I don't have a Q or a J. It's going to be raised at least once on the flop. If I catch an A on the turn, I'm behind to A-Q or A-J and I can't make a flush.

"I see LHO grabbing enough chips to raise again"

Good job. Always watch the guy on your left before you act.

[Tommy Angelo]

"Flop: Q J 3 ... UTG bets ..."

I would raise right there or fold, and I don't think I could fold, so raise it is. If LHO makes it three bets, great, now I pay one bet to try to hit the nuts on the turn, or pick up a nut draw, but I can fold on the turn if I miss altogether or catch a pair.

If this raise causes LHO to fold his pocket underpair, or his AK, now I really really like it because there's fresh chunks of dead money in the pot and I bought last seat. Whatever RHO does, reraise the flop, of just call, I'll have the best chance of getting a good read, with him doing the reacting.

The main thing I'm anticipating on this hand is, can I fold when it's right to, for one bet, on the turn or river, if I make a pair? And the only way I can have that kind of certainty is if I show enough strength that a reshow of strength by either opponent can be trusted, especially with a flush draw out.

Tommy

[PokerPrince]

Raising Utg's flop bet would be my choice here. This is a good time to semi-bluff and you may get out another AK with this move. As far as preflop goes, you mentioned you didn't know much about your opponents so not capping is probably the best plan here. I think LHO has a set of Queens and Utg has something like an AJ for two pair.

PokerPrince

[JTG51]

pufferfish, I appreciate any response, even (or maybe especially) from a 'micro-limit rookie'.

Most opponents would play an overpair as aggressively as LHO played this hand. If the turn had been a low card he could have easily still played AA or KK this way.

Thanks for the comments.

[JTG51]

You make good points about calling or capping with AK before the flop.

I'll add that I think your opponents post flop style of play is at least as important as his preflop raising standards when making that decision. If he's the type that will easily lay down a missed AK without playing back at you, I'll be far more likely to cap before the flop. Also, I know a few people that will instantly put a preflop capper on AA or KK. So much so that they will fold QQ or JJ overpairs after the flop sometimes. I'll cap AK almost everytime preflop against that kind of player.

[JTG51]

Andy, my read of my opponents was just about the same as yours. I was confident UTG had KT, and put LHO on AA or QQ, maybe JJ.

I'm really torn between folding and raising being the best play on the flop, I think it's probably a close decision.

"It's going to be raised at least once on the flop."

If I was sure LHO was going to raise the flop my decision would have been much easier. The game had been pretty passive though, so I thought I might get a cheap turn card. In retrospect, I hate that decision.

[JTG51]

Tommy, I'm squarely on the fence between folding and raising the flop. I think my call was clearly the worst decision.

Someone here (I think maybe you) once said that when two very good players disagree on a play (you and Andy in this case) it's probably a very close EV decision. I think this a good example of that idea.

You make a good argument for raising, like always. I think a flop raise would have made it very difficult for me to make a mistake on the turn or river. Maybe that alone is enough of a reason to make raising the correct play.

[JTG51]

"you mentioned you didn't know much about your opponents so not capping is probably the best plan here"

I think you hit the nail on the head there. I'm much more likely to cap with a hand like AK when I know how my opponents will react to it.

[JTG51]

LHO raised the turn after I folded and UTG called. The river was 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif making the final board:

Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/club.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

UTG checked, LHO checked, and I felt sick to my stomach. UTG showed K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif and took the pot. LHO didn't show. My AK would have been good.

I think if I had capped preflop, or raised UTG's flop bet I would have won the hand.

Thanks for the responses.

[mikelow]

I like the idea of a cap preflop.

[andyfox]

And, of course, I knew that read was wrong, otherwise you probably don't post. Tough game sometimes.

[JTG51]

Thanks Andy, I'm glad you and others didn't use the extra 'read' of knowing that there was probably some kind of twist to the hand when giving answers.

That kind of stuff may make the answerer look smart, but it doesn't really help anyone.

[Ulysses]

I think UTG has Queen/kicker - maybe Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif and LHO has 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 10 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

You're clearly in the lead here, raise the turn and bet the river.

[Ulysses]

I'm not that convinced that the cap preflop does that much for you besides build a pot. I think your opponents are often just as likely to put you on a big drawing hand as they are to put you on AA/KK in this situation.

On the other hand, I agree that a raise on the flop likely gets you this pot. I also agree that the flop is a good raise or fold situation and I like raising better for the reasons you, Tommy, and others state quite well.

[Ulysses]

I see LHO grabbing enough chips to raise again, so I fold.

I'm sure you and all mid-limit players posting here can tell the difference, but I did want to make the point for newer players reading that grabbing enough chips to raise is often a very different thing than actually having any intent to raise.

[eldo77]

[eldo77]

Dump it on the flop. You are out of position,should know it will probably be raised behind you, and have not caught enough on the flop to continue.At this point it doesn't make much difference what they have.You are in terrible shape mainly because you are caught in the middle.