gulebjorn
06-04-2005, 01:26 AM
Interpoker 50$ NL
Unraised pot with 5 players, i'm 2nd to act with ATo.
Flop(3.50$) 9 3 T
UTG(about 50$) bets 3.50
I raise to 7
all fold to UTG, who calls
Turn (17.50): 9 3 T T
UTG checks, i bet 16$, he pushes allin.
Pot is now about 75$, i have to call 24$ to see a showdown.
Speeding through some math in my head, the most important figure i could come up with was: i have to be right about this at least 1 in 4 times if i don't wanna lose any money.
What am i afraid of?
T9,T3 (seems unlikely he would have the other T)
99, 33 (maybe, but why would he wait for the turn to get all the money in if he hit trips?)
Even if i'm up against a boat, i still have three outs on the river if he has the T, and four if he has a pocket pair.
So, in the worst case scenario, i have about a 7% chance to outdraw if i'm right.
What am i hoping for?
JJ-QQ-KK-AA (he would have to be badly overplaying them postflop, and failed to raise them preflop, but i guess it's possible)
T7, T8, JT, QT, KT (unlikely because he would have the one remaining T)
A big pair would leave him two outs, AA would have one, all other tens would leave him three outs.
What is the correct play here and is my logic correct so far?
Oh yes, i'm disregarding reads here. He was not a particularly loose or tight player, no exceptional betting patterns, no fish but no agressive expert either.
Unraised pot with 5 players, i'm 2nd to act with ATo.
Flop(3.50$) 9 3 T
UTG(about 50$) bets 3.50
I raise to 7
all fold to UTG, who calls
Turn (17.50): 9 3 T T
UTG checks, i bet 16$, he pushes allin.
Pot is now about 75$, i have to call 24$ to see a showdown.
Speeding through some math in my head, the most important figure i could come up with was: i have to be right about this at least 1 in 4 times if i don't wanna lose any money.
What am i afraid of?
T9,T3 (seems unlikely he would have the other T)
99, 33 (maybe, but why would he wait for the turn to get all the money in if he hit trips?)
Even if i'm up against a boat, i still have three outs on the river if he has the T, and four if he has a pocket pair.
So, in the worst case scenario, i have about a 7% chance to outdraw if i'm right.
What am i hoping for?
JJ-QQ-KK-AA (he would have to be badly overplaying them postflop, and failed to raise them preflop, but i guess it's possible)
T7, T8, JT, QT, KT (unlikely because he would have the one remaining T)
A big pair would leave him two outs, AA would have one, all other tens would leave him three outs.
What is the correct play here and is my logic correct so far?
Oh yes, i'm disregarding reads here. He was not a particularly loose or tight player, no exceptional betting patterns, no fish but no agressive expert either.