Super Thursday Hand: 77 in EP

[cferejohn]

Blinds 100/200. I have about 6200 chips and am the table chip leader (average for the tournament was ~4K). I have 77 in EP and limp. MP who is fairly new to the table but doesn't seem crazy or anything raises to 600, leaving him about 1400 behind. Blinds fold, I call (making the pot 1500).

Flop is ATx. I push (planning to push on any flop there).

You like? You hate? Open-raise it preflop? Fold to the preflop raise? Reraise all-in preflop to represent AA/KK? Make a smaller flop bet? Check-fold the flop (and may I say: ick)?

Results to come...

[slupo]

If you knew you were going to push any flop, why wait till the flop? Why not push preflop? If he raised to 600 he probably at least has two over cards.

That being said, I like a re-raise preflop. He might raise again with a high pocket pair and then you know where you're at. If he calls then you can guess your 50/50.

Overall, I don't like it. But I'm a newbie.

[cferejohn]

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If you knew you were going to push any flop, why wait till the flop? Why not push preflop? If he raised to 600 he probably at least has two over cards.


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Essentially, it's a stop-n-go. With only 1500 back, he's almost certainly going to call an all-in unless he was just totally full of crap on his raise. With the call-push if he has overcards and misses, he's probably going to fold the flop and thus he's only gotten to see 3 cards rather than 5 (making it worse than a coin-flip for him). If he has an overpair, I might get him to fold on a scary board (like if he has 88-JJ and the flop comes AQx or something, that's going to be a hard call for him to make). Again, that's all predicated on the theory that he would definitely call a preflop push. If I thought there was a reasonable chance he could fold preflop, the preflop push sounds better.

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That being said, I like a re-raise preflop. He might raise again with a high pocket pair and then you know where you're at. If he calls then you can guess your 50/50.


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A decent thought, but given that the pot has 1500 chips in it when it comes back to me and he's only got 1400 back, there is no re-raise I can make here other than all in. Can't really raise to 1000 and then fold to an all-in of 1000 into a pot of 2500.

[cferejohn]

He had TT for a flopped set of tens and obviously called. I lose.

[pokerraja]

No need to get cute with a smaller stack at this stage of tourney. Your in great health and now is not the time to make a stand with a marginal hand against a player who most likey has a solid hand and is assuredly going to call your post flop bet, at least he should. i probably call his raise and am playing for set value, and if not check-fold on that board.

[adanthar]

I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
No need to get cute with a smaller stack at this stage of tourney. Your in great health and now is not the time to make a stand with a marginal hand against a player who most likey has a solid hand and is assuredly going to call your post flop bet, at least he should. i probably call his raise and am playing for set value, and if not check-fold on that board.

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Playing this hand for set value is highly -EV. I'm going to hit a set about 1 time in 8, and I'm calling 400 preflop to win 2600 (the pot plus the rest of his stack). Even assuming that I get his entire stack every single time, I'm only getting 6-1, and the fact is that sometimes I'm not going to get his whole stack, and once in a while I'm going to flop a set and lose anyway. If you are only going to play on if you hit a set, I think you should fold to the preflop raise, and I don't think it is close.

You're telling me that if you you think that if the short stack had a medium pair (which, as it happens, he did, though he hit a set with it), he would automatically call an all-in on a board with 2 overcards? I don't think that is right.

[durron597]

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I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

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Honestly I think all three lines (call, push, fold) are good. Which one you take depends on the opponent more than anything else.

[cferejohn]

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I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

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I agree that it's either raise or fold after his raise. And, in fact, that is what I did, but I did it in a way that I think had a much better shot to win me the pot than just pushing. If I was going to push, I think calling and pushing any flop was a much better way to do it. Just think if he hadn't hit a set and saw an ace on the board with an underpair. I think that's a hard call for him to make.

If your advice is to fold preflop, I accept that, but I just can't see how calling with the intention of folding on most flops could possibly be anything but a hugely -EV proposition.

[cferejohn]

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I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

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Honestly I think all three lines (call, push, fold) are good. Which one you take depends on the opponent more than anything else.

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I agree, but I didn't really know anything about him. He's been at the table for probably less than an orbit, so my only read was the fact that he hadn't been calling/raising every hand or anything silly like that, so he was somewhere between "fishy-but-not-insane" and "the best poker player in the history of the game".

I still don't understand how calling is a good idea unless I'm planning to push any flop.

[durron597]

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I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

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Honestly I think all three lines (call, push, fold) are good. Which one you take depends on the opponent more than anything else.

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I agree, but I didn't really know anything about him. He's been at the table for probably less than an orbit, so my only read was the fact that he hadn't been calling/raising every hand or anything silly like that, so he was somewhere between "fishy-but-not-insane" and "the best poker player in the history of the game".

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Then I would fold. You are either a small favorite or a big dog and it's not worth the risk against an opponent you don't know whether they're raising light.

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I still don't understand how calling is a good idea unless I'm planning to push any flop.

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It isn't. When I said call I meant call/push.

[adanthar]

You also get some overpair value (not much but some) plus the times you flop something like 865, etc.

Anyway, it's an ATx flop. Just think about his hand range; he's already flopped his ace over 50%, plus the times he makes a read with queens. Check/fold.

[cferejohn]

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You also get some overpair value (not much but some) plus the times you flop something like 865, etc.

Anyway, it's an ATx flop. Just think about his hand range; he's already flopped his ace over 50%, plus the times he makes a read with queens. Check/fold.

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He could (and, in point of fact, did) have a pocket pair, so flopping an overpair wouldn't help, and even flopping an open-ender leaves me as a dog. I think trying to put him on a specific hand (he has an ace or he doesn't have an ace here) is futile, especially online. Again, if I am planning to fold most flops, I should have folded preflop (which is now starting to seem was the right thing to do).

[Jax_Grinder]

With 500 in the pot, the raise to 600 doesnt impress me all that much vis-a-vis Villain holding AK/AQ. I kinda like the play, gambling that he is not holding the A and is likely to fold everything else. No way he folds to a reraise from you PF so the AI on the flop is your best chance to take down the pot and a commanding lead. Lose it and your average. I hate any play that allows him to take the lead, so push is best.

[woodguy]

Chris,

I like your line after his PF raise, very creative. I don't use the SnG enough, and this is a good spot.

You are right that the only FE you are going to have against that stack size is post flop, you just got unlucky.

What I don't undertand fully was your plan with the PF limp.

What was your plan?

Regards,
Woodguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
He could (and, in point of fact, did) have a pocket pair, so flopping an overpair wouldn't help, and even flopping an open-ender leaves me as a dog. I think trying to put him on a specific hand (he has an ace or he doesn't have an ace here) is futile, especially online. Again, if I am planning to fold most flops, I should have folded preflop (which is now starting to seem was the right thing to do).

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With 10xBB, and the big stack having limped in, let's give him the typical AA-99, AK-AJ range. You can modify it down a fair bit without changing these numbers; they're just an example, but it should give you an idea.

With that range he has a big ace a little over 50% and pairs the rest of the time. If you flop an overpair/draw, sometimes you'll push and he'll have to fold his AK or, at least, you'll have 6 or 10 outs. So calling for a set or pair+draw/overpair type flop makes sense given implied odds.

Once you get here, though, the calculation is straightforward. Over half the time, he has an ace, and some of the rest, he will call anyway. You are betting 1400 to win 1500. Is this gonna work enough? No? OK, check/fold.