Pretty common situation which I'm unsure of.

[dibbs]

Good low limit UB game 4 handed to full. You knock in the BB after some limpers with the lovely...


A: -- -- -- -- --
B: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: Js 9c Th Ah 6c
C: -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

C calls. A calls. B calls. aes
rizzle checks.

B takes 3 cards. Hero takes 4 cards.
C takes 2 cards. A takes 2 cards.

Second Round:

A: -- -- -- -- --
B: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6c 8s 3d Kc Kh
C: -- -- -- -- --

B checks. Hero checks. C
checks. A checks.

B takes 3 cards. Hero takes 2 cards.
C takes 1 card. A takes 2 cards.

Third Round:

A: -- -- -- -- --
B: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6c 8s 3d 4d As
C: -- -- -- -- --

B checks. Hero checks. C bets
$.50. A calls. B calls. Hero…..


Pot way too small here to have one shot at these outs? Assume C is a bad player, he may still be on the one draw or pat, still not good enough?

What if you have a really good 7 draw like 2347x, that's a call but the 8 isn't as clear cut to me it feels.

Thanks guys.

[Luv2DriveTT]

FOLD.

PS: Drop the 6 on the first draw since you have a free draw, you will be happy if you aren't drawing rough.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[fnord_too]

Fold. 5:1 is not enough to draw against one person here, let alone 3.

Edit: Well, against 1 person depending on the situation it may be worth drawing.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]

Third Round:

A: -- -- -- -- --
B: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6c 8s 3d 4d As
C: -- -- -- -- --

B checks. Hero checks. C bets
$.50. A calls. B calls. Hero…..

Pot way too small here to have one shot at these outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Way too small. There are only 3 big bets in the pot.

You need a 2, 5, or 7 to make a hand. But, the 7 only gives you an 87643. You are beaten by any other 87 except 87652 and 87653. So the 7 really only helps if C is still drawing (in which case you are still probably a big dog) or is betting a 9 into four other players.

I don't think C is drawing here--- he didn't bet when he improved to a 1-card draw; if he's generally passive then he's probably pat.

To break even on a call you need to win 25% of the time. (1 win at +3, 3 losses at -1.) You have at most 12 outs, but realistically more like 5-7 or fewer. (It is virtually certain that a 2 or a 5 appears in somebody's hand at this point, and you could be drawing dead.) With 37 cards unknown, your chances of winning are no greater than 5/34 to 7/36 -- 15% to 19%.

Finally, your implied odds suck. You are likely to lose an additional bet even if you make your hand and call, and unlikely to pick up an additional bet if you improve to the best hand.

I estimate it would take more than 5-6 big bets before you can even think of calling.

EDIT: Duh, I didn't see that both the other players call, so you're getting 5:1 four-handed, not 3:1 heads-up. The math is more complicated there... I can't see you having 16% equity against three players, though.

[MarkGritter]

I ran some numbers at two dimes and there are actually cases where you have odds to call, depending on how big of an idiot the two callers are:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 15600 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6c 4d 3d 3556 22.79 11884 76.18 160 1.03 0.233
6s 4s 9d 7d 2d 6264 40.15 9336 59.85 0 0.00 0.402
6d 7h 4h 3h 1748 11.21 13784 88.36 68 0.44 0.114
4c 2c 8h 6h 3872 24.82 11636 74.59 92 0.59 0.251
</pre><hr />

but most likely you are a big dog:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 15600 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6c 4d 3d 1659 10.63 13941 89.37 0 0.00 0.106
6s 4s 8d 7d 2d 8096 51.90 7080 45.38 424 2.72 0.533
6d 7h 4h 2h 3600 23.08 11576 74.21 424 2.72 0.244
5c 2c 8h 6h 1821 11.67 13779 88.33 0 0.00 0.117

5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 15600 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6c 4d 3d 1950 12.50 13650 87.50 0 0.00 0.125
6s 5s 9d 7d 2d 6303 40.40 9297 59.60 0 0.00 0.404
6d 7h 4h 2h 4532 29.05 11068 70.95 0 0.00 0.291
5c 4c 2c 8h 2815 18.04 12785 81.96 0 0.00 0.180
</pre><hr />

even more so if one of the cards you need has been discarded (a 2 and a 5, respectively:)

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 15600 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6c 4d 3d 1659 10.63 13941 89.37 0 0.00 0.106
6s 4s 8d 7d 2d 8096 51.90 7080 45.38 424 2.72 0.533
6d 7h 4h 2h 3600 23.08 11576 74.21 424 2.72 0.244
5c 2c 8h 6h 1821 11.67 13779 88.33 0 0.00 0.117

5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 15600 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6c 4d 3d 1322 8.47 14278 91.53 0 0.00 0.085
6s 4s 8d 7d 2d 8921 57.19 6235 39.97 444 2.85 0.586
6d 7h 4h 2h 3000 19.23 12156 77.92 444 2.85 0.207
5c 2c 8h 6h 1913 12.26 13687 87.74 0 0.00 0.123
</pre><hr />

[dibbs]

Sounds good, thanks a lot guys.