Suited Ace-rag hits Top Two Pair - How's My Line?

[NYCNative]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1490)
Button (t2140)
SB (t1080)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1330)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+2 (t1500)
MP1 (t1070)
MP2 (t1920)
MP3 (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t20, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t20, Button calls t20, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t100) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t20</font>, Button calls t20, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, CO calls t60, Button calls t60.

Turn: (t340) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t340</font>, CO folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: t680

[steelcmg]

Dont see anything wrong with the bet still really early so i would just take the chips.

[Degen]

i don't check the flop...bet this out, you may get raised by AQ or AJ, then you can three bet.

Andre

[kyro]

You mean besides it being a turbomuck preflop? Gonna get yourself in trouble...

[NYCNative]

I rarely, if ever, get myself into trouble limping with suited Ace-rag. I know that top pair is pointless, I am looking for the nut flush or trips or the situation above.

People limp with small PPs for set value all the time. You have a lot bigger chance of hitting any of the above scenarios than you do a set.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I rarely, if ever, get myself into trouble limping with suited Ace-rag. I know that top pair is pointless, I am looking for the nut flush or trips or the situation above.

People limp with small PPs for set value all the time. You have a lot bigger chance of hitting any of the above scenarios than you do a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability of flopping trips, two pair, or a flush is quite a bit less than flopping a set, even when you toss in the flushes you get seeing all 5 cards.

Moreover, Flopping trip Aces is vulnerable to another Ace. All in all, A6s is a lot weaker, IMO than a pocket pair.

GG

[NYCNative]

I have trouble believing that the odds on getting at least a flush draw, two pairs or trips - any of the above situations - is less than hitting a two-outer.

I welcome the math wizards to show me otherwise.

[hummusx]

Ok, here we go:

Odds of flopping a set = 7.5:1, 11.8%

Odds of flopping a flush with 2 suited = 118/1, .84%

Odds of flopping 2 pair with any 2 = 49/1, 2%

Odds of flopping trips with any 2 non paired = 73/1, 1.35%

So your % of hitting a flush, 2 pair, or trips with your Axs is just over 4% compared to 11% to make trips with a PP. Maybe playing Axs ISN'T as good an idea as you thought?

[NYCNative]

I said flopping a flush DRAW. Surely that makes a difference...

[kyro]

Well hell. Then let's play K2s to hit that draw. Part of the reason for playing suited cards is so you can make other hands with them.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I have trouble believing that the odds on getting at least a flush draw, two pairs or trips - any of the above situations - is less than hitting a two-outer.

I welcome the math wizards to show me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

For 2 pair or trips, (or FH) you need 2 or 3 of the remaining 6 cards that match your hand:

6/50 * 5/49 * 3 = 4.04%

For a flush draw or flopped flush you need 2 or more of your suit:

11/50 * 10/49 * 3 = 14.8%

But a flush draw is not a flush. You'll hit the flush 35% of the time, so the above comes down to:

14.0 % flush draw * .35 = 4.9% + .8% for the flopped flush or 5.7%

Also note that you might not have the odds to pursue the flush draw, so you won't really hit it 35% of the time. And when you hit trip aces, there's a possibility somebody else did too.

That's a total of 9.74% Vs 11.8% to hit a set.

I'm almost famous for math errors. Can anybody confirm this?

GG

[stripsqueez]

i'm confused about how a 7.5/1 chance converts to 11.8% but my math isnt great

i gave up playing this hand early unless i was in a fantastic pre-flop spot to limp - i wasnt prepared to pay a significant amount of my chips to draw on the flop so i simply didnt hit enough flops that would cause me to commit chips early

i think its fine to play this hand and i suspect that the structure of the tournament as opposed to the party SNG's makes it a better proposition - i would play the post flop the same way a lot of the time - certainly i always make sure someone drawing doesnt get much if any discount to see the river

a 6 isnt a "rag" - its a 6 - just because it has a rank lower than other cards doesnt make it something that should be referred to in derogatory terms - its the one and only card that has a rank of 6 - whats not to love about a 6 ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[GoldenHorde]

Open limping with A-6s is absolutely horrid, even when you do flop your draw you are going to have to play it out of position which is another great way to lose chips.

[NYCNative]

I asked about this in this very forum here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=holdem&amp;Number=2466300&amp;Foru m=All_Forums&amp;Words=rag&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main= 2466300) and most people seemed to think limping with suited Ace-rag was not a bad play.

[hummusx]

1/7.5+1 = .11764705882352941176470588235294, or roughly 11.8%.

7.5:1 means that 7.5 times it WON'T happen for every 1 time it WILL happen. That means that there are 8.5 total 'times' we are considering, and 1 out of those 8.5 'times' you will actually make it.

[kyro]

You have a lot to learn on position.

[adanthar]

That's because you were asking in a limit ring forum. There's a difference.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
That's because you were asking in a limit ring forum. There's a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

[durron597]

The problem here is not limp Ace-rag suited. The problem is openlimping it in EP.

I want to be in at the EARLIEST CO-1 before I limp with it, and I want AT LEAST one limper before I limp.

To the poster who put all the math in here, ok so 5% of the time you make your flush. But what about all the times you win a 100-150 chip pot by semibluffing, and the times you stack someone (thus getting 40:1 on your 20 chip bet). But I still want to be in position and have more players in the pot to increase the chances that I get paid off before I limp. I don't openlimp this hand even on the button.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]

For 2 pair or trips, (or FH) you need 2 or 3 of the remaining 6 cards that match your hand:

6/50 * 5/49 * 3 = 4.04%


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your math is very sound. Let's try to apply your logic to a slightly different scenario. If the flop were only two cards, what are the odds of being dealt 2 pair?

You say:

6/50 * 5/49 * 2

Does that seem right? I would think it should be:

6/50 * 5/49

When you multiplied by 3, I think you should have multiplied by 3/2 instead, giving a figure of more like 2%.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm confused about how a 7.5/1 chance converts to 11.8% but my math isnt great

[/ QUOTE ]

To miss your set (or quads), the flop must be 3 off-cards:

48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 = 88.24%

100 - 88.24 = 11.76%

GG

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

For 2 pair or trips, (or FH) you need 2 or 3 of the remaining 6 cards that match your hand:

6/50 * 5/49 * 3 = 4.04%


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your math is very sound. Let's try to apply your logic to a slightly different scenario. If the flop were only two cards, what are the odds of being dealt 2 pair?

You say:

6/50 * 5/49 * 2

Does that seem right? I would think it should be:

6/50 * 5/49

When you multiplied by 3, I think you should have multiplied by 3/2 instead, giving a figure of more like 2%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I multiply by three because there are three ways to get two hits. The miss could be any of the three cards.

GG

[tigerite]

Fold preflop. If you really have to play Ace-rag suited, do it from late position with many limpers. Oh and this nonsense about 'playing it so you have a draw on the flop' - draws are death in tournaments. You definitely do NOT want to be playing a hand because of that. This is nonsense.

[hummusx]

You completely ignored the rest of my post. Are you multiplying by 2 in the alternate scenario I posted?

[tigerite]

You forgot, too the odds of flopping 4 of a kind with pocket pair, just for completeness: 0.244%

Oh and if you really want to factor in the flush draw rubbish, then with 2 sooted your chance of 2 more sooted on the flop is 10.943%

[hummusx]

Yeah, I didn't add in 4 of a kind, boat, etc, in either scenario.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
You completely ignored the rest of my post. Are you multiplying by 2 in the alternate scenario I posted?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because there is only one way to catch two cards on a two-card flop.

I'm not good at explaining these, because I am fuzzy on the correct terms. Somebody like Gaming Mouse on the probability forum could do this in his sleep. Sorry

GG

[NYCNative]

I prefer position if only because I can be more sure that my limp won't be raised, but I don't mind playing this from any position because, like a small PP, I am not playing unless I get the flop I want and when I hit it, it's a strong enough hand that I don't mind being out of position as you can see from the hand above.

This isn't just results-oriented thinking. Well, it is in that my results when playing this hand are pretty simple: I either win a good amount or lose a small amount. The risk vs. reward is great and it's a hand that is EASY to get away from when it doesn't hit.

[hummusx]

Ok but let's just think logically. Let's call the chance of catching the 2 cards you need on a flop of only 2 cards X. So you have X chance if we deal you two cards. But now, if we throw you a 3rd card, you want to say the chance is X*3? That just doesn't make any sense. Your chance is roughly 50% better, or X*3/2. It just doesn't make sense the other way.

Oh yeah, and if in doubt just got check google. Any of the sites that list odds will gladly tell you that you have 2% chance to make 2 pair on the flop.

[tigerite]

Sorry but your maths is flawed, the odds for 2 of your suit to come on flop when you have 2 suited you work out as so:

11 cards of which 2 have to come on the flop
39 other cards (obviously)

giving (11 C 2) * 39

where n C r = n! / r! * (n - r)! (combinations)

and x! = x * (x-1) * (x-2) * .. * 1

thus 11! / 9! * 2! = (11 * 10) / 2

Multiplied by the 39 = 55 * 39 = 2145

Total combinations again n C r, we have 50 cards in the deck, with 3 to come: 50! / 3! * 47! = (50*49*48) / 6 = 19600

P = 2145 / 19600 = 0.10944 = 10.944%

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok but let's just think logically. Let's call the chance of catching the 2 cards you need on a flop of only 2 cards X. So you have X chance if we deal you two cards. But now, if we throw you a 3rd card, you want to say the chance is X*3? That just doesn't make any sense. Your chance is roughly 50% better, or X*3/2. It just doesn't make sense the other way.

Oh yeah, and if in doubt just got check google. Any of the sites that list odds will gladly tell you that you have 2% chance to make 2 pair on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculation was for two pair or trips. (Or FH, for that matter.) I just lumped all the remaining A's and 6's together for convenience.

GG

[tigerite]

I can show you the workings for that one too if you like.. you need to use combinations..

[Always Rockets]

Other than folding preflop, it was fine...if youre playing a-x suited, then youre gambling...so you could try a smaller value bet on the turn...

[gasgod]

I believe you. As I said, I'm famous for math errors.

GG

[poindexter]

You open limped with a drawing hand out of position, not a great play but not terrible if you are at a very passive table. I don’t like your line after hitting your hand. If your willing to take the risk of playing this hand out of position then you need to be willing to milk it for what it is worth when you hit. If you are playing against a calling station who rarely folds your line is correct but against any other player you were too aggressive. I like to bet the flop, and check raise the turn or river depending on how the board looks.

[durron597]

Ok. So say you openlimp UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Let's assume you get lucky and no one raises. 6 to the flop, t120 in the pot.

Flop K/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Possible line 1: SB checks, BB bets t80, Hero calls (or do you raise?) MP folds, CO raises to t250, Button folds, BB calls, Hero? Suddenly you just lost a 10% of your stack and you didn't even get to see the turn. And if you raise the BB's bet do you call a push from the CO?
Possible line 2: SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets t150, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero? Probably pushes but you have to hope your A outs are clean if you get called.
Possible line 3: SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button checks. Turn 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB bets t80, BB folds, Hero?
Possible line 4: SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t80, MP folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds. Turn 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero?

Do you really want to be in any of the above spots? And this is assuming you get lucky and 1) No one raises preflop and 2) You actually flop the flush draw.

[NYCNative]

Sure there are tough decisions to make. You have tough decisions to make with a lot of hands you choose to play out of position, but there are LESS tough decisions with this hand. Sometimes I will have to chase something down but when it looks unprofitable to do so, I fold. Also, I play at the 1,5000 chip SNGs so bleeding even 200 chipes early is hardly a lethal blow especially when that's usually the worst I'll get and the best can be doubling up.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
10.944%

[/ QUOTE ]So is this the number for just gaining a flush draw? Not including the other hand-making possibilities?

[durron597]

I'm not talking about making tough decisions. I'm talking about leaking 15% of your stack and then folding.

[tigerite]

Yeah, I can work out the rest if you really want, too..

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls t20,

[/ QUOTE ]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooo

Edited to add that my actual sentimet is

YAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.

[SNOWBALL138]

All suited hands have the same chance to make two pair, trips, and flushes.

If you are playing ace rag suited, why not just play any 2 suited? Surely you don't think the value of ace rage suited is in its ability to make the nut flush.

You can't play ace rag suited because you can't get value when an ace flops. Any action you run into is from a better ace, 2 pair, etc.

[durron597]

That isn't true. Against one non ace pair if you semibluff you often have 12 outs instead of 9.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure there are tough decisions to make. You have tough decisions to make with a lot of hands you choose to play out of position, but there are LESS tough decisions with this hand. Sometimes I will have to chase something down but when it looks unprofitable to do so, I fold. Also, I play at the 1,5000 chip SNGs so bleeding even 200 chipes early is hardly a lethal blow especially when that's usually the worst I'll get and the best can be doubling up.

[/ QUOTE ]

15000 chips? Awesome.

Seriously, you seem to be getting the point, but ignoring it. Playing Axs in EP makes it much more likely that you are going to bleed chips on a flush draw or top pair (at least I'm hoping that you're playing it for top pair value as well, because flush potential is not nearly enough to cover the price of limping). Furthermore, you make it much less likely that you'll be able to pick up the pot on the flop when everyone misses. Thirdly you open yourself up to getting raised preflop and throwing away your limp. There are too many negative factors involved in limping this in EP; whatever marginal value you can have from limping it at all is negated.

-Phoenix

[adanthar]

With any marginal PF hand when you will have to play it postflop, there are two questions you should ask yourself. The first is whether you can play it for a profit. The second is whether you can, with enough practice, learn to play it for a profit. Both answers should, of course, be modified by position.

Especially lately, I've been playing lots and lots of hands in the first level of an SNG that I don't post about on the forums. I've called minraises with hands like T9s in EMP, I've limped KQ/AJ in MP after as little as 1 limper and will probably keep doing it, and my button range after 3+ people limp has recently included 65o. If 5 people limped in in a 109 I'd probably only need one card (a 2) to limp behind on the button, though I'd need it to be suited.

But I don't play Axs in EP, mostly because I can see no way of playing that hand for a profit out of position. Of course, YMMV.

[The once and future king]

Why are we discussing this? Why is this thread so long?

[Phoenix1010]

Interesting. It's always seemed that you feel postflop play is undervalued on this forum, and I think you're right (some of the best players seem to have a high early VPIP). I'm wondering if you can take these ideas to such an extent in a 1000 chip SnG successfully though. KQo in middle position seems like a bit of a stretch, but against the right opponents and with strong post flop play I suppose all of these limps could be made +CEV. I'd be interested to know if your PT stats show a profit with 56o or KQo on level 1.

What does YMMV mean?

-Phoenix

[adanthar]

Your Mileage May Vary.

I limp a ton of stuff early because I only 4 table, am still learning postflop play myself and want to get better, and honestly don't feel all that scared against most PP donkeys. Okay, I spent 15 chips with 65o and won't go further with it unless I flop a monster, but if I flop a monster with 65 I'm probably stacking off against 88.

They still don't have any hand reading up here; if I limp a T9 and flop a straight QJ still gives me his stack after 4 raises. Dumb, but awesome.

Downside: I also have a tendency to want to blow off some chips with a hand like 54 on a 432 board when it's bet and raised to me and I have a deep stack. I expect that to fix itself eventually but I've still got some leftover Party-itis.

The downside isn't so much the Party-itis as it is that if you've just read the above paragraph and wondered why I was hesitating to do anything but push, you cannot possibly play this hand for a profit. (How many outs do I have in a pot that was unraised PF when 2-3 people seem interested?)

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play Axs in EP, mostly because I can see no way of playing that hand for a profit out of position. Of course, YMMV.

[/ QUOTE ]I have been able to make it work - incidentally, another "out" is getting the wheel (not a factor in this hand but a possibility with any smaller ace).

What I don't know is if I am able to play hands such as this profitably is whether my opponents suck hard or I have decent post-flop skills. Honestly, I think it's a combination of both even though I'm reasonably sure some people here will say I have zero skills at all.

[durron597]

Do you have pokertracker? I'm curious to know what your results are for Axs in EP.

[NYCNative]

I do not because I don't think it makes sense to pay for it when I'm stuck in the ghetto $11s. Do you feel otherwise?

[durron597]

Well if you're "stuck" in the $11s then you may need it to figure out why you aren't winning.

[NYCNative]

No, I'm winning in the $11s. I just don't have much of a roll. If I maintain my current ROI (slightly north of 20%; not great but passable), I should be moving up to the $22s shortly.

[Moonsugar]

I like your line.

But, I also am a fan of folding this preflop. The problem being your implied odds are much much worse playing Axs v a pair. It is hard to make a lot when you flop a flush (draw) or trips compared to when you flop a set.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I play at the 1,500 chip SNGs

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this makes it okay to limp in EP with suited aces when blinds are 10/20. 75 BB's is plenty to limp with hands with big drawing potential out of position. Of course, it largely depends on table conditions. If most hands go unraised preflop and there are usually a lot of limpers, I think it would be a mistake to fold here with blinds this low (unless you suck at postflop play).

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your line.

But, I also am a fan of folding this preflop. The problem being your implied odds are much much worse playing Axs v a pair. It is hard to make a lot when you flop a flush (draw) or trips compared to when you flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot to mention that, but that's a great point. OP seems to be pretty confident someone's going to double him up with 3 of one suit out there as he's sitting in EP trying to decide whether to bet or CR the river...

[NYCNative]

I will often get paid off even with the flush out there from a) someone with a smaller flush or b) someone with two pairs or a set.

Hell, I have gotten paid off with someone with ONE pair and a four-flush on the board! As stupid as people think I am, the people I am beating make me look like Howard Lederer. I would post some of the crazy stuff I see but then I'll get citanul all mad.

If you can get past the inability to bluff much and beats that make your gums hurt, I highly suggest everyone play lower level tournaments with 1,500 chips. You will make money (in smallish increments, natch) AND improve your post-flop game.

I win there and apparently I am the worst player ever.