55 ITM -- do I fold TT here?

[dfscott]

***** Hand History for Game 2146130057 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:12761267 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, June 02, 23:46:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 18970 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Dngr20KVolts ( $3385 )
Seat 3: dfscott1 ( $2935 )
Seat 5: onfire77 ( $3680 )
Trny:12761267 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to dfscott1 [ Ts Th ]
onfire77 is all-In.
Dngr20KVolts is all-In.

Help!

[Maulik]

scott you beat me to it!

you play the $55s? holla



i'd call in a heartbeat, hope i'm not wrong

p.s. i've been on a two week hiatus

[lastchance]

I call, but I honestly have no idea.

[LeVoodoo]

I really think I'd fold. You'd have to beat both to finish anything but third.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
scott you beat me to it!

you play the $55s? holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Just taking shots. Over the last few days, I've gone from breaking even at the 33s to pwning them (knock wood), so I thought I'd dip my foot into the 1K chip pool...

[Sidekick]

Personally I think this is an easy fold.

While TT is a nice starting hand, with the two all-ins you are most likely a coin flip at best here.

If you call and win it would be sweet, but by simply folding you can pretty much guarantee yourself 2nd place. That is a pretty strong +$EV move IMO.

If you call and lose you take 3rd place since you are short stack. As much as I would hate folding here, I would fold and know I'm pretty much guaranteed 2nd and then work on taking 1st.

Just my $0.02. Hope it helps.

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a VERY easy fold. There's only one situation that really pisses you off. They tie. Nothing wrong with playing for first by folding here.

[ewing55]

You gotta fold. The push is suspect, the call from the 2nd big stack means he's decided to go to the felt because he knows he has the push beat and that means he probably has you beat, or maybe if you are lucky a coin flip. Folding pretty much guarantees you second. TT a great hand 3way, but you gotta fold this one.

Of course I'm just a rookie, I could be wrong.

--------------Jeff

[Maulik]

eek I can't read, I did not see two allins, thsi is an easy fold. sorry for making myself look like a fool.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You gotta fold. The push is suspect, the call from the 2nd big stack means he's decided to go to the felt because he knows he has the push beat and that means he probably has you beat, or maybe if you are lucky a coin flip. Folding pretty much guarantees you second. TT a great hand 3way, but you gotta fold this one.

Of course I'm just a rookie, I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

rookie, your conclusion is correct, but your reasoning is slightly off. There's a high probability that our hero is ahead here (preflop). That being said, moving in here just because you're ahead does not mean that's the best $$$ decision.

[Newt_Buggs]

I can't believe that I am the first one saying this

This call is 100% read dependent and there is no way that I don't have a read at this point in the tournament, making this thread worthless. I can think of different matchups of opponents that switch this between being and easy call to an easy fold.

since everyone has talked about folding so far here is how it could be an easy call:
The button could be either a good player pushing a lot of hands or a maniac that got lucky to make it this far. In either case, you have him crushed. The SB player could be a clever player who recognizes the buttons aggression and therefore losens his calling ranges to a point where 10s is very strong. The SB could also be a donk loose player who would call this with an ace rag. If both players fit one of these 2 descriptions then this could be a clear call with the 5th best HU hand 3 handed.

[citanul]

el mucko grande.

citanul

[citanul]

i am not sure that even given your whacked out assumptions, this is a call.

citanul

[Phill S]

Scenario: one has Ax, and the other has Kx - your 50% (give or take) to win overall - but you have to beat them both to win any chips.

What if the pusher has KQ, or QJ and the caller has Ax.

Frankly, you can fold and provided they dont split the pot, your guaranteed (beyond some sort of act of god) to move up the pay scale at least 1 spot.

If i can fold up a pay spot by folding a hand, im liking that.

My gut tells me you need to be a 70+% fave overall for the call to be profitable.

Easy fold.

[NYCNative]

Tens don't play well against two (or more) opponents. Fold it knowing you probably have the best hand because you will probably be outdrawn as any overs will kill you.

[curtains]

Yeah I did the math and it seems to indicate that it's a very clear fold. Probably JJ is a fold too. You have to win the hand about 55% to be profitable, but these were very rough numbers and brought about by very quick and by no means thorough calculation.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah I did the math and it seems to indicate that it's a very clear fold. Probably JJ is a fold too. You have to win the hand about 55% to be profitable, but these were very rough numbers and brought about by very quick and by no means thorough calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about to ask actually.....JJ is a fold here? What about QQ? or AK? Given that you are "guaranteed" to move up a place here, whats the biggest hand you fold in this spot. Hell, what about AA? Go ahead, flame away...

[JunkHead]

Maybe it's my complete lack of experience, but I'd have to put one of these guys on Kings at least, making you a 4:1 dog. I'd take the (almost) guaranteed second place finish and the extra $50. Of course, I'm a weak-tight, donkeyfish, so for what it's worth...

JunkHead

[adanthar]

I fold. If you had 3,682 chips, I'd call.

[Degen]

before i read i'm gonna vote no, this is a call. not an insta call, but a call nonetheless. you are going for first here, not 2nd, you take this pot down and it should be a cakewalk.


Andre

[Degen]

yikes, i didn't see there were TWO all ins...this is a very very very easy FOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Andre

[dfscott]

This is one of those hands that went like this:

1) "TT - woo-hoo! These blinds are mine."
2) "All-in? He's probably pushing some weak A -- now I'm doubling up!"
3) "Huh? He's all-in too? How much time is left in my time bank?"

I basically just vapor locked until my timer ran out and then hit call (shouldn't have drunk that last beer while reading curtain's thread about loose calling standards, I guess /images/graemlins/smile.gif). I now agree that it's an easy fold. My original (flawed) thinking was, "second or third -- who cares. I want first!" I neglected that the overcall all-in had to be an excellent hand considering the pretty close to even stacks so my shot at first was slim.

As a sidebar, I intentionally left out one other bit of info. While I was thinking, button said "I have a pair." That made me somewhat more willing to call, since it sounded like he was trying to scare me off. I didn't think anyone would say this with a big pair, but then again, Button wasn't the player I was really worried about. However, I didn't want this thread to digress into a discussion of whether or not you can put any stock into table talk (I usually don't), so I didn't initially include it. Feel free to run with it now if you want.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah I did the math and it seems to indicate that it's a very clear fold. Probably JJ is a fold too. You have to win the hand about 55% to be profitable, but these were very rough numbers and brought about by very quick and by no means thorough calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. Since the SNG Tool doesn't handle this, I was too lazy to do the math, but afterwards, I started thinking about what I'd need to make this call. My gut tells me:

AA: no-brainer call
KK: call, but not be very happy about it
QQ: throw up, then fold
JJ: fold without remorse

I'd be interested in knowing the math, but it's pretty hard without knowing the calling standards. The hand was part of a four table set where all four had gone at least to the bubble, so my reads were not very good.

[introv]

Fold and watch the fireworks. You have an opportunity to lock up second and still be able to play for first by doing nothing, rather than giving yourself a high probability of finishing 3rd. That's a bargain!