Evaluating Risk/Reward 5 handed with chip lead

[jgunnip]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3595)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1445)
MP (t315)
Button (t1450)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t700

[bluefeet]

push IMO

[WebGuySteve]

I'll agree with the push, a lot of times people will min raise the chip leader so that they leave themselves with enough chips to fold to a reraise. They may also do this with AA...but...any push has a chance to run into AA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Karak567]

What does everyone think of a stop and go here?

[jgunnip]

My thoughts on this hand.
Whenever I see a min-raise late in a tournament it sets off an alarm in my head and I immediately stop and think hmm, strength. After the second or third time I'll conclude that this is villian typical play. However, better safe than sorry and this was the first time UTG had min-raise. I didn't even think about the min-raise just being a safe bet to fold in case I push (which I had been doing a lot of) or that it could have just been a raise to cover the small stack in case he moved in, however I don't think you see this play too much. At the time of the fold I was thinking ok, I've got the chip lead, I can fold this hand and safely coast to the chip lead on the bubble (which is where I want to be) and let the other players bust each other to the bubble. I decided that the risk of getting called and beaten thus sacfricing my chip lead was not worth 700 chips in the pot and the possiblity of knocking out a player to get to the bubble.

[WebGuySteve]

a stop and go isn't bad, but, I think the preflop push is better, because his raise seems to me that he doesn't want to commit all his chips preflop, else he would have done it himself. Say he has Ax, pretty low. If you do the stop and go and he hits an A, you lost a pot you would have won just by pushing allin. As the chip leader, I prefer to put the decisions to the small stacks as often as I can preflop. This way you have a good chance to suckout if you're wrong, plus other people won't want to mess with your BB whether you win or lose.

[WebGuySteve]

Well, I like your thinking if this is a low buyin tourney, 10s or 20s, maybe 30s, since people will call you with a lot of hands. But if this is a large buyin tourney, people don't like to call off all their chips and lose 200 bucks on Ax.

[curtains]

I would fold. This isn't quite the bubble so there is no great reason to believe he's raising small with the idea of folding. (If there were two stacks under 500, then I would probably push) Also your image is probably that of a big bully when you move allin, due to your giant stack, which may make some more likely to call.

Also you will often be able to steal relentlessly in the future in situations where your opponents have shown zero strength at all. I always prefer to steal against zero strength than some.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts on this hand.
Whenever I see a min-raise late in a tournament it sets off an alarm in my head and I immediately stop and think hmm, strength. After the second or third time I'll conclude that this is villian typical play. However, better safe than sorry and this was the first time UTG had min-raise. I didn't even think about the min-raise just being a safe bet to fold in case I push (which I had been doing a lot of) or that it could have just been a raise to cover the small stack in case he moved in, however I don't think you see this play too much. At the time of the fold I was thinking ok, I've got the chip lead, I can fold this hand and safely coast to the chip lead on the bubble (which is where I want to be) and let the other players bust each other to the bubble. I decided that the risk of getting called and beaten thus sacfricing my chip lead was not worth 700 chips in the pot and the possiblity of knocking out a player to get to the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically my thoughts on min-raisers as well. I'm wish i ran into all the weaktight min-raise with a weak hand and fold to a push players that the rest of the forum appears to play with all the time.

I think if you push (or stop and go) you get called way too often to make it worthwhile.

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of a stop and go here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Too fancy.

My understanding of the stop and go from the archives is that it can be used to maximize your fold equity when in a desperate short stacked situation with a marginal hand. You are chip leader so this is extending my understanding of the stop and go to any bet where you make a call preflop and push post flop no matter what the flop is.

So although my understanding of the stop and go implies that this is not a good use of it. For one thing I believe that the call of the raisers bet should be a significant portion of your stack, enough that your opponent has to suspect strength by the mere fact that you called. As big stack a call here would NOT denote strength. Basically he would wonder what the heck you where doing but realise that you are getting good odds on your call as BB and have no reason to fear you. If he connects he will call any bet. Stop and go here equals giving three free cards.

I will start a new thread to clarify stop and go. In general I feel it is too fancy a play for most situations. Probably better suited to MTT than STT.

--
tjh

[WebGuySteve]

I would agree with what you say about the stop and go, though, it is VERY useful in STT when you do find yourself in that very desperate short stacked situation, which can happen frequently. I like to use it when my remaining chips will be about pot sized, or maybe a little less. But, I do not really like to use it as a big stack, because it looks too fishy.

[jgunnip]

This is a 10+1

[ QUOTE ]
Also your image is probably that of a big bully when you move allin, due to your giant stack, which may make some more likely to call.

Also you will often be able to steal relentlessly in the future in situations where your opponents have shown zero strength at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your assesment is very good. I was able to continue to push in favorable spots and had a stack of 4400ish on the bubble and it was all gravy from there. I even got a couple of "WTF?!?!?"'s when I kept folding my SB to the shortstack BB when he had ~200 chips left. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks for the responses. I know this is only one hand but it feels really good to know that I was able to make a sound decision in this situation through a solid +ev thinking process that is becoming more and more possible everyday thanks to 2+2. [/sappyness]

[nate1729]

There's a very important facet to this hand I think people are missing... what if Hero is winning? Am I the only one that's seen people do this with weaker hands than KQs (or with small pocket pairs?) Anyway, I think a push is the best play here.

[lastchance]

You're big stack, you could push him around. KQs is a pretty nice hand. But I think he calls too much to do this. At my levels, bet/raise almost always means strength, or at the very least, "I'm calling you down."

[lastchance]

The problem is, you almost never want to be called with KQs 5-handed, even if your opponents sucks. You almost always want folds out of your opponents. Even if he has KJ, KT, K9, and QJ, there's a lot of aces and small pocket pairs you really don't want to call you.

Past L4, you want folds, unless you have AA-QQ. You really like taking pots down without showing your hand.

[nate1729]

Right, of course you often prefer a fold. Doesn't mean you're not making a mistake if *you* fold.

[RobGW]

You want an opponent who is dominated to fold? Can you elaborate on that?