party 20/40 hand

[geormiet]

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, SB calls.

River: (7 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[Nate tha' Great]

It's close on the end since Ax hands containing a spade will surely call on the turn but may fold if you bet the river.

[surfdoc]

This is a tough one but I think you gotta squeeze the trigger one last time. It is difficult to think of hands that you beat that he calls a raise with PF and gets to the river. You have to give him a chance to fold his As or maybe a smallish pair.

[geormiet]

There are 7 bets to fight for. 2 things have to fall into place to make betting correct:

a) he has Ax, no pair
b) he's willing to fold it.

Are both these conditions met 1 in 8 times?

[Lmn55d]

n/m

[Jeff W]

I do not believe that your opponent has Ax+ and folds it &gt;1/8 times.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 7 bets to fight for. 2 things have to fall into place to make betting correct:

a) he has Ax, no pair
b) he's willing to fold it.

Are both these conditions met 1 in 8 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

Condition a) will surely be met more 1 out of 8 times. Gauging b) is difficult. I'd want to think about my table image, and it would also be helpful to look at his WtSD%. I'd also want to think about how loose he's capable of taking cards off on the flop.

Also, it's worth remebering that sometimes your king high will be good against a hand like Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif or even 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. This changes the math of the situation some.

For example, suppose that his hand range is:

60% pair
20% ace high
20% some hand that doesn't beat KQ high.

Say that he'll never fold a pair, will fold ace high half the time, and will always fold the other hands that you're actually ahead of anyway.

So out of every ten times you bet:

6 times he calls with a pair (-1 BB)
1 time he calls with ace high (-1 BB)
1 time he folds ace high (+7 BB)
2 times he folds king high or a worse queen high (0 BB)

The EV of a bet is (-6 x 1) + (-1 x 1) + (7 x 1) = 0 so it breaks even.

Compare this to the situation where his holdings are:

80% pair
20% ace-high

Now out of every ten times that you bet:

8 times he calls with a pair (-1 BB)
1 time he calls with ace high (-1 BB)
1 time he folds ace high (+7 BB)

And the EV of betting is (-1 x 8) + (-1 x 1) + (1 x 7) = -2 BB per ten hands or -0.20 BB/hand.

So the fact that your KQ high *may* be good is actually a reason to bet, even though it seems like a reason to see a showdown.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]

For example, suppose that his hand range is:

60% pair
20% ace high
20% some hand that doesn't beat KQ high.

Say that he'll never fold a pair, will fold ace high half the time, and will always fold the other hands that you're actually ahead of anyway.

So out of every ten times you bet:

6 times he calls with a pair (-1 BB)
1 time he calls with ace high (-1 BB)
1 time he folds ace high (+7 BB)
2 times he folds king high or a worse queen high (0 BB)

The EV of a bet is (-6 x 1) + (-1 x 1) + (7 x 1) = 0 so it breaks even.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis. What about the EV of checking?

6 times he wins wiht a pair (0 BB)
2 times he wins with A high (-1 BB)
2 times he loses with worse than KQ unimproved (0 BB)

Total = -2BB

Pretty interesting.

Anyway, he had A6.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it's worth remebering that sometimes your king high will be good against a hand like Q J or even 9 7

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's hand is no good against QJ and 97 would have a pretty tough call on the flop. When I made my initial response it was hard for me to even think up hands that hero beats.

Also Nate with your EV calculations is it beyond the realm of possibility for the villian to fold a pair?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, it's worth remebering that sometimes your king high will be good against a hand like Q J or even 9 7

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's hand is no good against QJ and 97 would have a pretty tough call on the flop. When I made my initial response it was hard for me to even think up hands that hero beats.

Also Nate with your EV calculations is it beyond the realm of possibility for the villian to fold a pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops yeah the J creates a few more hands that now beat Hero.

I haven't accounted for the potential that player folds a pair, but I doubt that it is very high here.