tough river spot

[poker1O1]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)

converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
both villians are 24/6/1.1
Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls.

River: (11 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

[poker1O1]

anyone call here?

[imashyboi]

I'll hate the fold here but it feels like your beat. Your only getting 5.5-1 to call anyways which isn't really that good. I think MP3 has a set while SB could also have two pair. I'll have MP3 more credit since he's so passive. I don't see anyone having AK in either spots, KQ is more than likely from the SB. What was the result?

[Barry]

Let's see you have top 2, you're getting 7:1 not closing the action. The SB has just pulled the c/c, c/c, bet line. MP3 bet the turn and called your raise and now raises the SB bet on the river.

I'm actually worried more about SB having something like T9 than MP3 who might have something like QT or KQ which you beat or even QJ with you.

Without any specific reads (other than PT stats) or comments on the players, I think that I would hate myself more if I folded, than I would hate myself for calling...

[FrankTheTank]

I limp pf. I like isolating weak limpers as much as the next guy, but QJo is just a little too weak, no? As for the river, I call and don't really think it's close. Sure he could have a very oddly played set or 89 or K9, but I think he's raising with a smaller two pair here enough to make a call profitable.

[steveyz]

Bad river fold. It's unlikely SB or MP3 have AK. If anything, I'd say SB probably has KQ, although 98 is very possible as well. MP3 may have many different combinations of 2-pair, all of which you tie or beat. This is a must call here. If SB 3-bets and MP3 caps, then fold.

[poker1O1]

results were QT and 8h9h giving him the turn 4 flush and river straight

[imashyboi]

I wrote down the wrong pot odds on the river, your actually getting 7-1 to call here. I think this is a good spot to call but I hate the raise on the river by MP3. After looking over the action again we can say that MP3 can't have KQ since he would have raised before the CO. I think anyone in this spot would do the same. The fact that he limped in that position indicated his hand is weak.

Another comment, I realised that once you go to the river and get raised by a passive player, your either beat(75%) or chopping the pot(25%). You can't auto fold however, it depends if he's willing to bluff on the river with just a pair, if he is capable then calling will show some sort of profit along the way.

There is also a indication on the TURN where he might have a draw or a made hand like top pair. I am giving MP3's raise on the river some credit. I don't think he's bluffing at this point, he believes that his hand is good to win.