mdlm
12-24-2002, 06:02 PM
The most common reasons given for raising are to put more money in the pot (this is also called ‘raising for value’) and getting weaker hands to fold.
I think that there are several other reasons. One is to raise for information.
Let’s say that you limp in with QJs and the big blind checks in. The flop comes J72. What hands do you want to be worried about? KJ and AJ. You do not want to be worried about the possibility that the big blind has J7 or J2 or 72 or 22 or 77.
But if you do limp in you do need to be worried about that. How worried do you need to be? Very worried. The chance that the big blind will have one of those hands before betting begins is about the same as the probability that someone has KJ or AJ. Even if the betting increases the probability that someone has KJ or AJ by a factor of 3 or 4 the chances of the big blind having one of those hands is still relatively large.
This suggests that always raising preflop to knock out the big blind may be a good idea. Note that in no limit hold ‘em where implied odds are huge (and therefore the punishment meted out by a big blind who checks in with J7 and hits two pair is huge) the pot is almost always raised preflop.
To explore this idea I asked on the Small Stakes forum if it is ever correct to fold a preflop limp to a single raise. The answer is that it isn’t. A single raise should always be called. What this means is that raising preflop does not lose a lot of bets and, in fact, in the case of having the best hand this would qualify as a raise for value.
If this is true, then it seems to me that every LP hand that is a call should be a raise. It will knock very few players out who would otherwise have called (since there are very few players left to act) and the players who are already in will call. But the blinds will fold with something like J7.
In MP the situation may be a bit more complicated, but I think that it might be better to tighten up standards and simply raise every hand (except for 100% draw hands like Axs) as well. Again, the advantages of eliminating the uncertainty of the big blind having a random hand might outweigh the advantages of getting an extra call or two. I do not know if this is true, but it is definitely worth checking.
In EP the problem is greatly reduced because the hands that are played are much better, so the chance that the blinds will have top pair / better kicker is greatly reduced. But even then a preflop raise may be in order.
I am curious to know what you guys think of this idea. Is it perfectly obvious that the vast majority of preflop plays should be raises?
==>
Comments on Comments
Easy E gave me a nice exercise to work through. This is the sort of problem that I expect to be able to solve once I finish working through Jones.
==>
Goal Update
This past week, I spent approximately 17.25 hours on poker: 5.75 hours playing PokerPages tournaments, 5 hours on 2+2, 4 hours watching poker on ESPN, 2 hours reading, and 0.5 hours on Paradise Poker.
I did not spend any extra money this week. I have spent a total of $438.46 out of my $1000 budget.
An update on each of the four goals (which are to be accomplished by 3/30/03):
1. Read and study Jones’ “Winning Low Limit Hold ’Em”
I think I have found two more errors in Jones.
First, on page 128 he writes: “Just because you think you have the best hand on the end doesn’t mean you should bet. You should only bet on the end if you’ll have the best hand most of the time when you’re called.” This second sentence is incorrect. If your bet causes your opponent to fold a better hand much of the time then the bet is good even if you never have the best hand when you are called.
Second, on page 93 he writes: “You are slightly less than a 2:1 underdog to make your flush, so you are making money if you can get at least three other people in the pot with you. You need to get slightly better than the exact odds since you could make the flush but have it beaten by a full house.” This last sentence is incorrect. You need 2:1 on the flop to make a flush only if you know that there will be no betting on the turn when you miss your flush. If there will be betting on the turn then you need more than “slightly” better odds and you need them primarily because of the additional betting, not because you may be beaten by a full house. Personally, I think that the easier way for a newbie like me to approach flush draws is to figure out the odds of hitting the flush on the turn card and then adjusting them downwards for implied odds instead of doing what Jones does here which is to calculate the odds of hitting the flush by the river and then adjusting the odds upwards.
If you guys agree that these are errors, this will give me the three points I need to complete this goal.
2. Beat Acespade
Goal Completed on 11/5/02.
Over a period of 100 hours (3600 hands) I beat Acespade’s best lineup at the rate of over 4 BB/hr.
3. Beat Masque World Series of Poker
Goal Completed on 11/17/02
After playing Masque WSOP dozens of time I finally became the Masque WSOP Champion.
4. PokerPages 85% rating in one calendar month playing 20 tournaments
My rating dropped off during the past week, but I still have a solid shot of hitting my goal. I played four tournaments and finished #60 out of 101, #50 out of 96, #43 out of 114, and #13 out of 81. My PokerPages rating is now 83.34%.
I think that there are several other reasons. One is to raise for information.
Let’s say that you limp in with QJs and the big blind checks in. The flop comes J72. What hands do you want to be worried about? KJ and AJ. You do not want to be worried about the possibility that the big blind has J7 or J2 or 72 or 22 or 77.
But if you do limp in you do need to be worried about that. How worried do you need to be? Very worried. The chance that the big blind will have one of those hands before betting begins is about the same as the probability that someone has KJ or AJ. Even if the betting increases the probability that someone has KJ or AJ by a factor of 3 or 4 the chances of the big blind having one of those hands is still relatively large.
This suggests that always raising preflop to knock out the big blind may be a good idea. Note that in no limit hold ‘em where implied odds are huge (and therefore the punishment meted out by a big blind who checks in with J7 and hits two pair is huge) the pot is almost always raised preflop.
To explore this idea I asked on the Small Stakes forum if it is ever correct to fold a preflop limp to a single raise. The answer is that it isn’t. A single raise should always be called. What this means is that raising preflop does not lose a lot of bets and, in fact, in the case of having the best hand this would qualify as a raise for value.
If this is true, then it seems to me that every LP hand that is a call should be a raise. It will knock very few players out who would otherwise have called (since there are very few players left to act) and the players who are already in will call. But the blinds will fold with something like J7.
In MP the situation may be a bit more complicated, but I think that it might be better to tighten up standards and simply raise every hand (except for 100% draw hands like Axs) as well. Again, the advantages of eliminating the uncertainty of the big blind having a random hand might outweigh the advantages of getting an extra call or two. I do not know if this is true, but it is definitely worth checking.
In EP the problem is greatly reduced because the hands that are played are much better, so the chance that the blinds will have top pair / better kicker is greatly reduced. But even then a preflop raise may be in order.
I am curious to know what you guys think of this idea. Is it perfectly obvious that the vast majority of preflop plays should be raises?
==>
Comments on Comments
Easy E gave me a nice exercise to work through. This is the sort of problem that I expect to be able to solve once I finish working through Jones.
==>
Goal Update
This past week, I spent approximately 17.25 hours on poker: 5.75 hours playing PokerPages tournaments, 5 hours on 2+2, 4 hours watching poker on ESPN, 2 hours reading, and 0.5 hours on Paradise Poker.
I did not spend any extra money this week. I have spent a total of $438.46 out of my $1000 budget.
An update on each of the four goals (which are to be accomplished by 3/30/03):
1. Read and study Jones’ “Winning Low Limit Hold ’Em”
I think I have found two more errors in Jones.
First, on page 128 he writes: “Just because you think you have the best hand on the end doesn’t mean you should bet. You should only bet on the end if you’ll have the best hand most of the time when you’re called.” This second sentence is incorrect. If your bet causes your opponent to fold a better hand much of the time then the bet is good even if you never have the best hand when you are called.
Second, on page 93 he writes: “You are slightly less than a 2:1 underdog to make your flush, so you are making money if you can get at least three other people in the pot with you. You need to get slightly better than the exact odds since you could make the flush but have it beaten by a full house.” This last sentence is incorrect. You need 2:1 on the flop to make a flush only if you know that there will be no betting on the turn when you miss your flush. If there will be betting on the turn then you need more than “slightly” better odds and you need them primarily because of the additional betting, not because you may be beaten by a full house. Personally, I think that the easier way for a newbie like me to approach flush draws is to figure out the odds of hitting the flush on the turn card and then adjusting them downwards for implied odds instead of doing what Jones does here which is to calculate the odds of hitting the flush by the river and then adjusting the odds upwards.
If you guys agree that these are errors, this will give me the three points I need to complete this goal.
2. Beat Acespade
Goal Completed on 11/5/02.
Over a period of 100 hours (3600 hands) I beat Acespade’s best lineup at the rate of over 4 BB/hr.
3. Beat Masque World Series of Poker
Goal Completed on 11/17/02
After playing Masque WSOP dozens of time I finally became the Masque WSOP Champion.
4. PokerPages 85% rating in one calendar month playing 20 tournaments
My rating dropped off during the past week, but I still have a solid shot of hitting my goal. I played four tournaments and finished #60 out of 101, #50 out of 96, #43 out of 114, and #13 out of 81. My PokerPages rating is now 83.34%.