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View Full Version : 13 The Newbie Chronicles: Raising for Information


mdlm
12-24-2002, 06:02 PM
The most common reasons given for raising are to put more money in the pot (this is also called ‘raising for value’) and getting weaker hands to fold.

I think that there are several other reasons. One is to raise for information.

Let’s say that you limp in with QJs and the big blind checks in. The flop comes J72. What hands do you want to be worried about? KJ and AJ. You do not want to be worried about the possibility that the big blind has J7 or J2 or 72 or 22 or 77.

But if you do limp in you do need to be worried about that. How worried do you need to be? Very worried. The chance that the big blind will have one of those hands before betting begins is about the same as the probability that someone has KJ or AJ. Even if the betting increases the probability that someone has KJ or AJ by a factor of 3 or 4 the chances of the big blind having one of those hands is still relatively large.

This suggests that always raising preflop to knock out the big blind may be a good idea. Note that in no limit hold ‘em where implied odds are huge (and therefore the punishment meted out by a big blind who checks in with J7 and hits two pair is huge) the pot is almost always raised preflop.

To explore this idea I asked on the Small Stakes forum if it is ever correct to fold a preflop limp to a single raise. The answer is that it isn’t. A single raise should always be called. What this means is that raising preflop does not lose a lot of bets and, in fact, in the case of having the best hand this would qualify as a raise for value.

If this is true, then it seems to me that every LP hand that is a call should be a raise. It will knock very few players out who would otherwise have called (since there are very few players left to act) and the players who are already in will call. But the blinds will fold with something like J7.

In MP the situation may be a bit more complicated, but I think that it might be better to tighten up standards and simply raise every hand (except for 100% draw hands like Axs) as well. Again, the advantages of eliminating the uncertainty of the big blind having a random hand might outweigh the advantages of getting an extra call or two. I do not know if this is true, but it is definitely worth checking.

In EP the problem is greatly reduced because the hands that are played are much better, so the chance that the blinds will have top pair / better kicker is greatly reduced. But even then a preflop raise may be in order.

I am curious to know what you guys think of this idea. Is it perfectly obvious that the vast majority of preflop plays should be raises?

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Comments on Comments

Easy E gave me a nice exercise to work through. This is the sort of problem that I expect to be able to solve once I finish working through Jones.

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Goal Update

This past week, I spent approximately 17.25 hours on poker: 5.75 hours playing PokerPages tournaments, 5 hours on 2+2, 4 hours watching poker on ESPN, 2 hours reading, and 0.5 hours on Paradise Poker.

I did not spend any extra money this week. I have spent a total of $438.46 out of my $1000 budget.

An update on each of the four goals (which are to be accomplished by 3/30/03):

1. Read and study Jones’ “Winning Low Limit Hold ’Em”
I think I have found two more errors in Jones.
First, on page 128 he writes: “Just because you think you have the best hand on the end doesn’t mean you should bet. You should only bet on the end if you’ll have the best hand most of the time when you’re called.” This second sentence is incorrect. If your bet causes your opponent to fold a better hand much of the time then the bet is good even if you never have the best hand when you are called.
Second, on page 93 he writes: “You are slightly less than a 2:1 underdog to make your flush, so you are making money if you can get at least three other people in the pot with you. You need to get slightly better than the exact odds since you could make the flush but have it beaten by a full house.” This last sentence is incorrect. You need 2:1 on the flop to make a flush only if you know that there will be no betting on the turn when you miss your flush. If there will be betting on the turn then you need more than “slightly” better odds and you need them primarily because of the additional betting, not because you may be beaten by a full house. Personally, I think that the easier way for a newbie like me to approach flush draws is to figure out the odds of hitting the flush on the turn card and then adjusting them downwards for implied odds instead of doing what Jones does here which is to calculate the odds of hitting the flush by the river and then adjusting the odds upwards.
If you guys agree that these are errors, this will give me the three points I need to complete this goal.

2. Beat Acespade
Goal Completed on 11/5/02.
Over a period of 100 hours (3600 hands) I beat Acespade’s best lineup at the rate of over 4 BB/hr.

3. Beat Masque World Series of Poker
Goal Completed on 11/17/02
After playing Masque WSOP dozens of time I finally became the Masque WSOP Champion.

4. PokerPages 85% rating in one calendar month playing 20 tournaments
My rating dropped off during the past week, but I still have a solid shot of hitting my goal. I played four tournaments and finished #60 out of 101, #50 out of 96, #43 out of 114, and #13 out of 81. My PokerPages rating is now 83.34%.

Ulysses
12-24-2002, 07:44 PM
J7 or J2 or 72 or 22 or 77. ... How worried do you need to be [that someone has one of those hands]? Very worried. ... the chances of the big blind having one of those hands is still relatively large.

I really don't understand how you come up with statements like that. On a J72 flop, you automatically put the chances of BB flopping a set or two pair as "relatively large." Huh? I disagree and think you should subtract 5 points.

I am curious to know what you guys think of this idea. Is it perfectly obvious that the vast majority of preflop plays should be raises?

In the spirit of your error-finding....

No, the vast majority of preflop plays should be folds.

I'm surprised you ask this question here after spending 5 hours reading 2+2 this week. There are countless threads in General, Small Stakes, and Mid/High Stakes extolling the virtues of raising or folding preflop.

he writes: “Just because you think you have the best hand on the end doesn’t mean you should bet. You should only bet on the end if you’ll have the best hand most of the time when you’re called.” This second sentence is incorrect. If your bet causes your opponent to fold a better hand much of the time then the bet is good

I hate to stand in the way of your 3 points, but the second sentence is correct in the context of the first sentence. He's obviously talking about betting or not betting in situations when you you're likely to have the best hand.

Dynasty
12-24-2002, 08:34 PM
But the blinds will fold with something like J7.

No, they won't. Most low limit players will gladly call a raise from their big blind while holding J7o and many worse hands. Many will call with 72o. In fact, if you raised from the cutoff, you will reguarly see the Button call two bets cold with weak hands such as J7o.

pudley4
12-26-2002, 12:58 PM
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
If this is true, then it seems to me that every LP hand that is a call should be a raise. It will knock very few players out who would otherwise have called (since there are very few players left to act) and the players who are already in will call. But the blinds will fold with something like J7

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree. If you have a hand like 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif or 5 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif and there are 4 limpers to you on the button, you're probably better off calling than raising. Raising will cut your implied odds in 2 ways:

1 - It's costing you 2 SB to see the flop instead of 1 SB, so you need to collect twice as many future bets to get the same "return on investment".

2 - If the blinds fold you now only have 4 opponents to collect from instead of 6.

With these "implied odds" (or drawing) hands, you're not as concerned about knocking out the junk that the blinds hold because you're looking to make a set, straight, or flush for your winning hand. If you make your hand, it's very unlikely you will lose. You want lots of opponents remaining in the hand to pay you off when you hit. Contrast that with your "reverse implied odds hands" - something like AQo. Here you're looking to make top pair and for it to hold up, so you're trying to get opponents to "pay now or fold".

Notice also that your idea of raising preflop to knock out the BB is already covered by your first statement - "getting weaker hands to fold"

Raising for information is usually a secondary reason to raise. Here's an example:

2 limpers to you on the button with K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . You raise (for value), BB and limpers call.

Flop is J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif .

BB bets, both limpers fold. You know BB will bet if he has T9, any J, any 8, or 2 pair or better. You raise because you think you might have the best hand, but his response will also give you more information about his hand. If he just calls, he probably has T9 or an 8 or a weak J, so you're in the lead. If he raises, he probably has a hand that beats yours (AJ or 2 pr/set), so you'll probably want to just call him down.

pudley4
12-28-2002, 10:25 PM
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
I think I have found two more errors in Jones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither of these are errors.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
First, on page 128 he writes: “Just because you think you have the best hand on the end doesn’t mean you should bet. You should only bet on the end if you’ll have the best hand most of the time when you’re called.” This second sentence is incorrect. If your bet causes your opponent to fold a better hand much of the time then the bet is good even if you never have the best hand when you are called

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread the section. He is only talking about betting when you think you will be called. He specifically emphasizes "when you're called". He also says on page 129 "...we are not talking about bluffing. A bluff is a bet when you are fairly sure you don't have the best hand". Obviously if you think you can get an opponent to "fold a better hand", you are bluffing, so this advice does not apply.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Second, on page 93 he writes: “You are slightly less than a 2:1 underdog to make your flush, so you are making money if you can get at least three other people in the pot with you. You need to get slightly better than the exact odds since you could make the flush but have it beaten by a full house.” This last sentence is incorrect. You need 2:1 on the flop to make a flush only if you know that there will be no betting on the turn when you miss your flush. If there will be betting on the turn then you need more than “slightly” better odds and you need them primarily because of the additional betting, not because you may be beaten by a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you talking about are the "pot/effective/implied odds" you would need to continue on to the turn and then the river. He is talking about the "value bets" on the flop.

This is the example he uses:

You hold A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif .
Flop is Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .
There are 15 sb in pre-flop.
You have 7 opponents.
The preflop raiser is to your left.

Now in this scenario you are going to the river with this hand, so you will be seeing both the turn and the river. His point is that because you will make your flush 1 out of 3 times, if you can get 3 people to call your flop bet, you should bet because you will make money off those bets. Since it's possible you'll run up against a full house, you won't win every time you make your flush, but you'll definitely win more than 1 out of every 4 times you make a flush.

What you are talking about is this - If there were only 2 sb in the pot preflop, and your opponent bet into you with this flop, you would only be getting 3-1 to continue, and you'd have to take into account the turn bet you would need to call when your flush doesn't come on the turn. In this case, you'd be looking at effective odds of 5-3 (2 sb in the pot + 1 sb from your opp on the flop + 2 sb on the turn = 5; your 1 sb call on the flop and 2 sb call on the turn = 3) so you'd probably be correct in folding since you're not getting the correct odds (2-1) to continue.

angelo alba
12-30-2002, 01:34 AM
"Lets say that you limp in with QJs and the big blind checks in. The flop comes J72. What hands do you want to be worried about? KJ and AJ. You do not want to be worried about the possibility that the big blind has J7 or J2 or 72 or 22 or 77.

But if you do limp in you do need to be worried about that. How worried do you need to be? Very worried. The chance that the big blind will have one of those hands before betting begins is about the same as the probability that someone has KJ or AJ. Even if the betting increases the probability that someone has KJ or AJ by a factor of 3 or 4 the chances of the big blind having one of those hands is still relatively large. "

Ok, I'll try to be as constructive in my critique as possible. Dynasty is correct about low limits of course and I would further add that at higher limits, oftentimes the BB isn't going to fold 22 or J7 or 77 to one raise. How often? About all you can count on is a probable fold if the BB is being conservative or is otherwise depressed. . .

If he's on a roll, on tilt, angry at you or at his money, heads up, testing your skill, or simply varying his play you may even get raised, ESPECIALLY if you're raising from LP and he puts you on a steal.

You'd probably induce a fold better if you raised with QJs UTG which is generally awfull play but once in a blue moon it might throw them off.

"To explore this idea I asked on the Small Stakes forum if it is ever correct to fold a preflop limp to a single raise. The answer is that it isn't. A single raise should always be called. What this means is that raising preflop does not lose a lot of bets and, in fact, in the case of having the best hand this would qualify as a raise for value."

Well, yeah if you have the best hand or best draw but then again who is the player who raised you? What does he raise with? With h a maniac you're not getting much info as it's business as usual and with a tight-agressive player you could probably fold, IF we're still talking about QJs pre-flop and other limpers in the pot. Was this the hand you posted in the small stakes forum ? No, I'm not misuderstanding you, you are principally talking about YOU doing the raising , but unless you do have the best draw, best hand AND your opponents have read the forum /forums/images/icons/wink.gif It's just not a law of averages that you can count on IMHO

"If this is true, then it seems to me that every LP hand that is a call should be a raise. It will knock very few players out who would otherwise have called (since there are very few players left to act) and the players who are already in will call.But the blinds will fold with something like J7."

Ok, let' not belabor the 'blinds will fold ' any more. If we're still talking about QJs just how many limpers do you need to make a raise a positive EV? Or do you mean you're the only one in and you've opened raised in LP? Sorry if I'm being obtuse but the statement that a call in LP should always be a raise is rather baffling. If I'm reading you right it's based on the premise of of being told that 'a limp should not fold to a single raise.' Even if that were 100% true, I'm missing the logical conclusion.

Perhaps the explanation comes from: "Note that in no limit hold em where implied odds are huge (and therefore the punishment meted out by a big blind who checks in with J7 and hits two pair is huge) the pot is almost always raised preflop. "

Well, I don't know if I agree about 'almost always' but here's an idea: Given that you've got that 85% PokerPages rating and that this is the main if not the only live play experience you've been getting, perhaps you should consider playing live NL games on line for real money?

There are some with as low as .10-.20 blinds. Of course the average pots go higher than limit and you could lose all your remaining $1,000 bankroll in one night if you get careless and lose discipline, but at least you won't be chasing too many different forms of Poker at the same time.

If this sounds too reckless, then perhaps you should just lurk and learn there. See how the humans compare to your 'Masque WSOP program.'

Good Luck and keep posting.