More post-defense

[Aaron W.]

No reads on anybody. What's your next move? What about the move after that?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero...

[Firefly]

I'd fold. You got to see a cheap flop...but it's nothing much to write home about. If one of those 2's was a /images/graemlins/spade.gif I could see a call. KTs is a thoughoughly dominated hand, you could have 6 outs or 3 outs and were not exactly sure which ones we want to hit. So, i think we should fold.

[gharp]

Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.

The great thing about this board is that you can be pretty sure the thief doesn't have a 2 (he raised preflop), but he can't be so sure about you (you were posting blind). I think it's likely that if he calls and checks the turn, you might take it down with a bet.

If he 3-bets you on the flop, you've got a problem. Against an unknown I'd probably call and fold the turn UI.

[istewart]

While his opening range is pretty wide, there's still a very good chance not all 6 of your overcard outs are good. You can probably fold, but I think it's close. If you had a backdoor flush draw I would continue.

[AmarilloJim1]

IMO...you have to fold..your overcards don't count as full outs...

[Isura]

Really easy fold.

[Aaron W.]

Put villain on a specific (albeit broad) range of hands when he open-raises in MP2 against a poster.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
Put villain on a specific (albeit broad) range of hands when he open-raises in MP2 against a poster.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the kind of stuff I need practice on, so I'll bite.

Any Ace, K9+, Q8+, suited connectors...

He's probably got higher cards than the flop, and seriously doubt he hit the 2 or 4. What you really want is to hit a T so your K plays as a kicker, I think.

I think if you pair up you could take the hand, but I'd have to worry about the A-high if you don't.

KO

Edit: Hmm, I'm having many second thoughts on the suited connectors... maybe 9+ suited connectors (T9s+)

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Put villain on a specific (albeit broad) range of hands when he open-raises in MP2 against a poster.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if players at 1/2 even consider the poster in this sitution. But I would raise something like 55+, A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs. The problem with KT is that we have little showdown value, and our outs must be discounted quite a bit in this situation. I don't think we have enough to peel, since our implied odds aren't great either. If villain has any pocket pair or an ace, we are in trouble.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is you're getting 8:1 to call, but only 5 to 1 if you raise, SB folds, and BB calls. You've got about a 1 in 7 chance of improving on the turn, and even if you improve, you don't know if your hand is any good. Plus the fact that MP2 might 3-bet and really screw up your odds.

However, there are some other advantages to raising as well. If you raise, SB folds, MP2 calls, you miss the turn and MP2 checks, you might be able to pick up the pot right there with a bet. Then again, this could end up costing you even more money if he decides to call you down. You could also see a free river.

I don't know, folding and raising both have their merits. If MP2 is the type who will fold AQ to a bet on the turn if he misses, I MIGHT be inclined to raise here. If I think he will call me down, I fold.

All in all, I think I fold 85% of the time, and raise 15%.

[gharp]

This is a good point, as are the ones about KTs being prone to domination. I still like our chances of taking it down here or on the turn on this somewhat scary board. It's definitely dependent on the person you're up against, as you mentioned. Against someone who's just going to call you down with any A, I can see letting it go. I think we can all agree that calling is probably the worst option.

I tend to defend my blinds aggressively (maybe too much), so take it with a grain of salt.

[iNsChris]

Mp2 doesnt have 2's SB i'd be worried about.

Pot at 7sb, I fold...

Mp2 might have AA KK? even AK, KQ, KJ means were down to 3 outs.

Easy fold.

[Somekid]

fold. your overcard outs probably are not clean.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if players at 1/2 even consider the poster in this sitution. But I would raise something like 55+, A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs. The problem with KT is that we have little showdown value, and our outs must be discounted quite a bit in this situation. I don't think we have enough to peel, since our implied odds aren't great either. If villain has any pocket pair or an ace, we are in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much is "quite a bit"? Do you think the ten outs are as dirty as the king outs? Given your list, how often are my king outs bad?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is you're getting 8:1 to call, but only 5 to 1 if you raise, SB folds, and BB calls. You've got about a 1 in 7 chance of improving on the turn, and even if you improve, you don't know if your hand is any good. Plus the fact that MP2 might 3-bet and really screw up your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the way you should be looking at this. It's 1 SB to call plus 1 or 2 SB to drive out the small blind. The question is whether it's worth 11-22% of the pot to get this thing heads up (plus whatever other benefits there are with a raise).

[Aaron W.]

Too all of you wanting to fold getting 8:1 in this spot, I think you're all a little weak tight. This is especially true of those who are thinking villain has AA-QQ, AK, KQ. I'm not saying that folding is "bad", because I'm not sure you're giving up a large EV edge here, but I really believe that I will win this hand 15-20% of the time.

I think I've got got 4-5 outs on average in this spot, there's a loose preflop raiser, a positional advantage, and a raggedy flop. That's enough to tilt the scale in my favor. As pointed out by someone else, I'm really hoping to pair my ten, not my king. Here's my plan:

=1= Raise - drive out SB and see how much villain wants to play.

=1a= If he 3-bets, I call-fold UI. There's too much of a chance he's got a pocket pair, an ace that's not going to fold, and possibly a hand dominating me. If I pair up and he's betting into me, I'm calling down.

=2a= If he calls and leads the turn, most often I'm folding. Stop and go feels a lot like a medium pair, or he paired on the turn. Again, if I pair up, I'm calling down.

=2b= If he checks to me, I'm betting, planning to fold to a raise.

=3= If he only calls the turn bet, I'm betting the river. By this point, he probably has overcards and there are enough ace-high hands that will fold to make the bluff profitable. If I had something like A9, I think I check behind and hope he had KQ/KJ or a worse ace.

Okay, let's hear the objections.

[VBM]

[ QUOTE ]
=2b= If he checks to me, I'm betting, planning to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i typically use this line as well, tho i think it wouldn't hurt to vary between trying to immediately fold him w/ a bet &amp; UI, checking to the river and reevaluating.

[Buckmulligan]

Wow... I would never fold here. never. That's awful IMO. Versus an open raise and an SB defender, there is no reason we should be discounting our outs.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow... I would never fold here. never. That's awful IMO. Versus an open raise and an SB defender, there is no reason we should be discounting our outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, not discounting them to 50%, certainly. I consider my ten outs to be completely clean, and my king outs to be slightly tainted. I don't want to give myself a full 6 outs because villain may have a real hand here with his open-raise. With no reads, I tend to give a little more credit because I see lots and lots of limps with posters around. The 4-5 outs is pretty conservative, but it's still more than enough with all the other things to make this an easy play.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
=2b= If he checks to me, I'm betting, planning to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i typically use this line as well, tho i think it wouldn't hurt to vary between trying to immediately fold him w/ a bet &amp; UI, checking to the river and reevaluating.

[/ QUOTE ]

With an ace high, I like that more because I can pick off more bluffs with an ace than I can with a king. With a king, I'm really need him to fold.

[stlip]

Grunching:

First move, fold.
Next move, wait for another hand.

OK, now I peeked. One immediate problem that comes to mind with raising to fold out SB is the small number of times that he had A2s or A4 or PP 4. A KT hand that completely misses the flop has not much going for it, but it's true that HU with position and a crummy board that could be enough, enough of the time. But SB won't always play along with this scenario and I think that makes it very hard for me to see this as +EV.

[Shillx]

Gotta 3-bet preflop here.

Brad

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta 3-bet preflop here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered that. KJs would get 3-bet, K9s would not. KTs is right in the middle. I don't think either way is clearly superior.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gotta 3-bet preflop here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered that. KJs would get 3-bet, K9s would not. KTs is right in the middle. I don't think either way is clearly superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand you play should be 3-bet preflop. If there were already callers, you could just call here but KT /images/graemlins/spade.gif plays much better HU then 3 or 4 way when there is a good chance that your hand is best. Playing this hand in a 3-way pot is just about the worst thing I can imagine. I either want it get it HU or 5+ way action. Since the latter is not possible the way the PF action went, do your best to prevent giving the blinds a cheap flop.

Brad

EDIT - NPA adressed this in a recent Internet Magazine article. He talks about both defending your posted blinds and 3-betting after posting with marginal hands.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Too all of you wanting to fold getting 8:1 in this spot, I think you're all a little weak tight. This is especially true of those who are thinking villain has AA-QQ, AK, KQ. I'm not saying that folding is "bad", because I'm not sure you're giving up a large EV edge here, but I really believe that I will win this hand 15-20% of the time.

I think I've got got 4-5 outs on average in this spot, there's a loose preflop raiser, a positional advantage, and a raggedy flop. That's enough to tilt the scale in my favor. As pointed out by someone else, I'm really hoping to pair my ten, not my king. Here's my plan:

=1= Raise - drive out SB and see how much villain wants to play.

=1a= If he 3-bets, I call-fold UI. There's too much of a chance he's got a pocket pair, an ace that's not going to fold, and possibly a hand dominating me. If I pair up and he's betting into me, I'm calling down.

=2a= If he calls and leads the turn, most often I'm folding. Stop and go feels a lot like a medium pair, or he paired on the turn. Again, if I pair up, I'm calling down.

=2b= If he checks to me, I'm betting, planning to fold to a raise.

=3= If he only calls the turn bet, I'm betting the river. By this point, he probably has overcards and there are enough ace-high hands that will fold to make the bluff profitable. If I had something like A9, I think I check behind and hope he had KQ/KJ or a worse ace.

Okay, let's hear the objections.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why we are assuming a loose preflop raiser here, your initial post indicated no reads, and I don't think a typical 1/2 player is not loosening up his raising standards too much in this spot.

I don't really agree with your plans for the turn here.

[ QUOTE ]
=1a= If he 3-bets, I call-fold UI. There's too much of a chance he's got a pocket pair, an ace that's not going to fold, and possibly a hand dominating me. If I pair up and he's betting into me, I'm calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this at all. What hands do you think villain plays this way? AA-77 atleast, and AK-AT and KQ if he's aggro. If we call down against TT+ or AT+,KQ when we improve we sometimes are dominated and way behind, the other times villain ususally has atleast 6 outs to suckout (when we spike a T). When we don't improve, we incorrectly fold the turn when villain has 22-99 or some worst hand than ours.

I actually think calling the flop is the best play if you want to play this hand out. If SB calls the flop too, and villain bets, it's an easy fold. But if SB sticks around, we have some bluff protection, and villain will also check some hands that he would have bet if it was heads-up. This gives us a chance to see 2 cards for just 1 small bet. If SB folds we are in the same spot as when we would have raised and SB folded. But, we don't have to worry about being 3-bet with K high on the flop. Also, if SB fold and we pair up, I really think that raising is the correct play on the turn. We put maximum pressure on 22-99 and stuff like AK-AJ and KQ when we spike a T. Also, I think we can fold to a 3-bet if we raise with a pair of K's on the turn, and we get 3-bet.

So my plan would be to call the flop, raise the turn if I improve (folding to a 3-bet), and probably fold the turn if I'm bet into again in most cases.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT - NPA adressed this in a recent Internet Magazine article. He talks about both defending your posted blinds and 3-betting after posting with marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either I'm stupid or that article has fallen off the online magazine because I can't find it.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why we are assuming a loose preflop raiser here, your initial post indicated no reads, and I don't think a typical 1/2 player is not loosening up his raising standards too much in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't give typical player enough credit. They're not completely stupid out there. I'll admit that I don't *KNOW* that he's slightly looser than normal, but when you consider the all players out there, this raise means less on average than if I had not been a poster.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really agree with your plans for the turn here.

[ QUOTE ]
=1a= If he 3-bets, I call-fold UI. There's too much of a chance he's got a pocket pair, an ace that's not going to fold, and possibly a hand dominating me. If I pair up and he's betting into me, I'm calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this at all. What hands do you think villain plays this way? AA-77 atleast, and AK-AT and KQ if he's aggro. If we call down against TT+ or AT+,KQ when we improve we sometimes are dominated and way behind, the other times villain ususally has atleast 6 outs to suckout (when we spike a T). When we don't improve, we incorrectly fold the turn when villain has 22-99 or some worst hand than ours.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've taken the worst case scenarios in all situations, pulled them together, and said "therefore it's bad".

If villain 3-bets the flop and leads the turn, then it becomes *TOO LIKELY* that I'm in trouble for me to continue. Yes, I might incorrectly fold against some mid-pair getting 7.5:1. However, it will be the case far more often that villain has a solid pair, TT+ or the occasional AK that's smart enough to realize that he still has a good shot of having the best hand -- or at worst he's got 6 solid outs. In those cases, I've got 3 outs or less and the overlay I get when he's betting the mid-pairs isn't enough to cover me.

(By the way, I doubt there are many hands worse than ours out there... QJ is probably the only candidate.)

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think calling the flop is the best play if you want to play this hand out. If SB calls the flop too, and villain bets, it's an easy fold. But if SB sticks around, we have some bluff protection, and villain will also check some hands that he would have bet if it was heads-up. This gives us a chance to see 2 cards for just 1 small bet. If SB folds we are in the same spot as when we would have raised and SB folded. But, we don't have to worry about being 3-bet with K high on the flop. Also, if SB fold and we pair up, I really think that raising is the correct play on the turn. We put maximum pressure on 22-99 and stuff like AK-AJ and KQ when we spike a T. Also, I think we can fold to a 3-bet if we raise with a pair of K's on the turn, and we get 3-bet.

So my plan would be to call the flop, raise the turn if I improve (folding to a 3-bet), and probably fold the turn if I'm bet into again in most cases.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me break that down a bit, because there's lots of stuff going on.

If SB calls the flop too, and villain bets, it's an easy fold.

Why? This bet is just a continuation bet after betting the flop. It's only 3-handed from the start, so he's likely to be a little more aggressive with whiffed overcards and a paired ragged board.

But if SB sticks around, we have some bluff protection, and villain will also check some hands that he would have bet if it was heads-up. This gives us a chance to see 2 cards for just 1 small bet.

Bluff protection? What's he "bluffing" here? Almost any hand that he has will beat me at the showdown.

The line you take here really looks like you don't believe villain will ever fold his hand. I think that's a huge mistake. Besides the fact that Paradise $1/2 tends to be a little weak-tight in general, I would guess that only 10-20% of the players at the micros will call down with ace-high against a flop raise, turn bet, and river bet.

If SB folds we are in the same spot as when we would have raised and SB folded.

No, we're in a very different position. We just pushed back at the preflop raiser. If I just call, then villain is more likely to bet the turn (heads up against a possibly weak preflop post-call and a weak flop call, most players will bet that turn). By taking the initiative here, I put myself in a position to push him off, and not the other way around.

Also, if SB fold and we pair up, I really think that raising is the correct play on the turn. We put maximum pressure on 22-99 and stuff like AK-AJ and KQ when we spike a T.

Why would I want to put pressure on 22-99 to fold if I pair up? Most of the big overcard hands you listed will only have 3 outs against me if I pair my ten. I want them in the hand to call unprofitably. I don't think I understand your position here at all.

Also, I think we can fold to a 3-bet if we raise with a pair of K's on the turn, and we get 3-bet.

Why not just get a showdown for the same price? If I pair the king, my hand is now showdown-worthy. What do I gain by cutting off the showdown?

So my plan would be to call the flop, raise the turn if I improve (folding to a 3-bet), and probably fold the turn if I'm bet into again in most cases.

I think this is a bad idea.

[Isura]

I think in general our opinions differ in this situation because of different assumptions about the type of opponent we are up against. I'm assuming this is the type of player that is going to have a tough time laying down something like AT of KJ until the river unless another high card comes on the board. I used the wrong terminology, what I meant by bluff protection is that villain is less likely to fire again with overcards if SB is around on the turn, so we have a better chance of getting a free card on the turn. Also, I probably don't give an unknown opponent enough credit for being able to lay down a pocket pair like 66 in this situation to a turn raise. How about calling flop, calling turn if we pair up, and calling river unless we improve again?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think in general our opinions differ in this situation because of different assumptions about the type of opponent we are up against. I'm assuming this is the type of player that is going to have a tough time laying down something like AT of KJ until the river unless another high card comes on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must play against some really loose players, then. I don't think I've ever seen KJ shown down unimproved (except for the time I did it... and lost to KQ).

[ QUOTE ]
How about calling flop, calling turn if we pair up, and calling river unless we improve again?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind it, but I don't like it as much as raising the flop. Perhaps this list might explains why I prefer to take the aggressive line:

1) Villain probably does *NOT* have a pocket pair.
2) Villain probably does *NOT* want to show down unimproved overcards, except for maybe AK.
3) Villain probably has a *BETTER* hand than I do right now.
4) The pot is big enough to make a play for it.

By just calling the flop, I'm conceding the hand some 85-90% of the time. With the pot as big as it is, I don't like those percentages. I'd rather play to increase my chances of winning the pot, as long as the expense does not outweigh the profit. What's the expense here? 2.5 BB if I go all the way to the river with my plan (the extra .5 BB that goes to the call is going there for both lines). The pot I'm playing for is 4.5 BB PLUS the 1.5 BB villain will put in. Pretending that the times that I have to bail out early and the times that villain calls down and shows a better hand offsets the times I actually pair up to win, I need villain to fold about 1/3 of the time to win money on this play. I can't imagine him showing down 2/3 of the MP open-raising hands UI against a poster (there are too many naked ace hands, too many broadway hands). This last step is a judgment call, but I think it's pretty reasonable.

[Isura]

Your arguments are solid. Good thread.

[ QUOTE ]
You must play against some really loose players, then.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 Party and 2/4 Stars (6 max). I have g00t game selection. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT - NPA adressed this in a recent Internet Magazine article. He talks about both defending your posted blinds and 3-betting after posting with marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either I'm stupid or that article has fallen off the online magazine because I can't find it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, after 3 months they do.

[2+2 Junkie]

Grunching:
I just don't think the pot is all that big enough to call here. I would probably fold. Your K outs are probably tainted. Raise, or fold. But I would fold.

Maybe i am too weak/passive, but that is my take.