A Golf Bet

[RacersEdge]

I'm trying to calibrate a golf bet here, so need some opinions for golfers.

A is a scratch golfer

B is the best score for each hole from two 10 handicappers

Which is the better option for low score and by how much?

[fnord_too]

My initial thought is that the scratch golfer is better by a fair ammount. Here is my suspect reasoning:

I am making a goofy assumption that that means on average they shoot par or better on 8 holes a round (each), which means on any given hole there is a (10/18)^2 chance the team does worse than par. That means on each hole they have a 30% of being above par (over the long run). So, they should combined be a 5-7 handicap, and at best would be a 2 handicap.

The actual variance they have on a per hole basis will impact this greatly. If you have one guy who has extreme tails, like he shoots a fair amount of birdies and eagles, but also a lot of double and tripple bogies, and the other guy is consistently withing one stroke of par with the occasional +2, then it may be a lot closer (or even conceivably in favor of the two +10s).

Big caveat, I have never played golf nor do I watch it or have any interest in it. These are just my thoughts based on a pedestrian understanding of the game and a slightly above pedestrian understanding of probability and statistics.

[Apathy]

There used to be a charity tournament every year that was Mario Lemiux (sp?), Wayne Gretzky and Brett Hull or some other great hockey player/ decent golfer. These three would play best score on each hole against Mike Weir. All three of them had single digit handicaps but were playing a professional course from professioal tee's/hole locations etc.

Those games were usually pretty even, I think Weir even won a few times.

So.... I would take the scratch golfer.

[JTrout]

(I got a D in statistics, but mainly because I missed class to play golf).

I agree the scratch golfer should have the edge.

The tougher the course, the bigger the advantage.

This is assuming fair handicaps, which is a big assumption.

[on_thg]

Do the scrubs get their full handicap? If so, I would go with them if either (a) they don't completely suck, which they shouldn't, and (b) the golf course isn't set up in a way that obviously puts them at a disadvantage -- for example, if they're short hitters and they're sent to play a 7,500 yd beast from the tips.

I've played plenty of 2 man best ball (with about a 10 index) and scores of 4 to 6 under are fairly common. Hard for a scratch golfer to beat that. I'd make the team a 1 to 2 stroke favorite.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Do the scrubs get their full handicap? If so, I would go with them if either (a) they don't completely suck, which they shouldn't, and (b) the golf course isn't set up in a way that obviously puts them at a disadvantage -- for example, if they're short hitters and they're sent to play a 7,500 yd beast from the tips.

I've played plenty of 2 man best ball (with about a 10 index) and scores of 4 to 6 under are fairly common. Hard for a scratch golfer to beat that. I'd make the team a 1 to 2 stroke favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's saying they do not get a handicap.

[RacersEdge]

Yeah, this is really not close - the scratch golfer wins it. And it's even more in favor of the scratch golfer because a 10 handicap is not really an average but a 75th percentile of play - i.e. a 10 handicapper probably average about 13-14 strokes over par. So you could say best case scenario would be each of the two 10 HCers make 7 pars AND they make them on different holes, that's 14 pars - which is still going to be about 4 over par - and that is unrealistic best case.

I guess was actually thinking more of best shot (a scramble) instead of best score when I wrote this up.

[JTrout]

take the 10-handicappers in a scramble. Bet the house.

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played plenty of 2 man best ball (with about a 10 index) and scores of 4 to 6 under are fairly common. Hard for a scratch golfer to beat that. I'd make the team a 1 to 2 stroke favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best ball is significantly different from taking the teams best score.

I'd take the scratch golfer.

Edit: If its a scramble ... I agree with JTrout - I'd bet his house.

[RacersEdge]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played plenty of 2 man best ball (with about a 10 index) and scores of 4 to 6 under are fairly common. Hard for a scratch golfer to beat that. I'd make the team a 1 to 2 stroke favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best ball is significantly different from taking the teams best score.

I'd take the scratch golfer.

[/ QUOTE ]

In golf, best ball = best score

and scramble = best ball/shot

[RacersEdge]

[ QUOTE ]
take the 10-handicappers in a scramble. Bet the house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure it's a "bet the house", but I'd say the 2 10-Hcers would be a couple shot favorite..

[chucksim]

Scratch golfer by a few strokes, though the pair will win just enough times to keep them interested (kind of like playing roulette).

In medal play, the scratch golfer won't take many big numbers. Good chance that on a difficult hole, both 10's can make doubles or worse. Scratch golfer takes a huge lead on them here.

If both 10's have good course management and partner-golf skills, they can help themselves a bit, by being aware of the other's troubles and adjusting appropriately to always put up a respectable score.