View Full Version : A nice draw (played badly?)
dbitel
06-02-2005, 10:29 AM
Party Poker (max 6) 50NL
UTG ( $75.65 )
CO ( $50.98 )
Button( $28.62 )
Hero (SB) ( $26.75 )
BB ( $54.1 )
Hero posts small blind [$0.25].
BB posts big blind [$0.5].
Hero has 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, Button calls, SB(poster) completes, BB checks
Flop: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets $0.5, 1 fold, Button raises to $2.5, Hero raises to $6, Button calls all in ($26.12), Hero???
Is this a call? The odds are surely near to a coinflip? Should I just be flat calling his bet on the flop or maybe should I be raising more on the flop?
jacknine
06-02-2005, 10:56 AM
think you were right about the flat call on the flop - you´re making your draw a lot more expensive now. I´d just fold since you´re probably behind and can´t say for sure that even IF you make a straight or flush, you have the winning hand... And don´t even think about hitting that 8 /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Ghazban
06-02-2005, 11:00 AM
Bet more on the flop, then when you get raised, you can push. This puts your opponent to the call/fold decision instead of you.
Chicago Kid
06-02-2005, 11:08 AM
Based on any reads you may have, what do you think he is likely to be holding? Your read is absolutely critical....
Based on the re-raise, I would guess he's got at least a Q, and possibly a better flush draw than you, and I'd be folding.
If he has a Q, or an overpair, you're about a 55-45 dog, probably enough to justify the call.
But if he has a Q with a flush draw, your odds slump to 82-18.
Trips, 65-35.
You are HOPING you have a little worse than a coin flip, in which case you barely have odds to draw: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996304
But you might be up against a set, which you don't have odds to draw against: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996279
Or a better flush draw, which you don't have odds to draw against: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996308
Or a better draw with a pair, against which you are dominated and a huge dog: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996309
So, you might be barely positive EV, with equal chance of being dramatically negative EV. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
dbitel
06-02-2005, 11:52 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Based on any reads you may have, what do you think he is likely to be holding? Your read is absolutely critical....
Based on the re-raise, I would guess he's got at least a Q, and possibly a better flush draw than you, and I'd be folding.
If he has a Q, or an overpair, you're about a 55-45 dog, probably enough to justify the call.
But if he has a Q with a flush draw, your odds slump to 82-18.
Trips, 65-35.
[/ QUOTE ]
I had joined the table only a few orbits ago, so no real reads. After the push, he had to have at least the Q I thought. Was a matter of if he just had Q nice kicker, 2 pair, or Q with a flush draw...and I really wasn't sure which one.
The_Bends
06-02-2005, 12:39 PM
Preflop pot = $1.50
Flop pot (excluding final raise) = 0.50 initial bet + (0.50+$2) raise + $5.50 reraise + $3.50 villian makes up heros reraise
Flop pot = $12
total pot = $13.50
reraise = 28.62 (villains stack) -6.50 (ammount Villain has commited to pot
reraise = $22 (approx)
35.50:22
22/(35.5+22)= 0.38
Therefore need to win 38% of the time to make a profit.
Against TP/Overpair
9s 6s 464 46.87 526 53.13 0 0.00 0.469
Ad Qh 526 53.13 464 46.87 0 0.00 0.531
Against 2pair
9s 6s 404 40.81 586 59.19 0 0.00 0.408
7d Qh 586 59.19 404 40.81 0 0.00 0.592
Set
9s 6s 344 34.75 646 65.25 0 0.00 0.347
Qc Qh 646 65.25 344 34.75 0 0.00 0.653
Flush Draw
9s 6s 323 32.63 667 67.37 0 0.00 0.326
Ks 2s 667 67.37 323 32.63 0 0.00 0.674
Pair + FD
9s 6s 176 17.78 814 82.22 0 0.00 0.178
Qs 2s 814 82.22 176 17.78 0 0.00 0.822
A call is only profitable against a bluff, a single pair, or two pair. the reraise would seem to rule out a single pair so against the villians probable range this is a fold.
I realise this is an exceptionally long winded analysis of the situation but its the first one I've done so I'd love the hear where I've gone wrong.
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