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byronkincaid

06-02-2005, 07:17 AM

I blame it on Daliman and his easy read post.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

Kristian

06-02-2005, 07:28 AM

What is the buy-in? Any reads?
If answers are <100 and no, I say horrible fold.

pergesu

06-02-2005, 07:31 AM

You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

You are not daliman.

curtains

06-02-2005, 07:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I blame it on Daliman and his easy read post.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a truly dreadful fold for many reasons, one of which is that if one of your opponent's do have AA, you are basically getting the correct odds to draw out on them, especially with another player in the pot. And of course you simply can't know for sure.

You have 2 players who are playing very strangely, and it's almost for sure that one of them doesn't have AA. If one player can play like a loon without AA, two can also. There is just no possible way you can be this confident about your read with such a large % of your stack in the middle.

Even if you were correct, you made the wrong play, especially since you are getting about 5-1 on your money making the logical assumption that the cold caller is coming along for the ride.

byronkincaid

06-02-2005, 08:14 AM

I'm probably starting to go a bit cris brown at the moment what with me running bad at the moment. Just had soooo many small reraises when I know they got AA and I call anyway with my KK. That seemed like a leak so I thought this time I'd do it differently. Not that it matters but here is the outcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

Results in white below: 
UTG has Kd Ks (one pair, kings).
MP2 has As Qs (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP2 wins t2825. UTG wins t417.

byronkincaid

06-02-2005, 08:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are not daliman.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes thanks for reminding me. We must be grateful for small mercies. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

jcm4ccc

06-02-2005, 08:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

curtains

06-02-2005, 08:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the probability that he doesn't have AA combined with the fact that even if he does you are getting okay odds makes this a relatively brainless decision.

Basically I think it'd be wise to save such monumental preflop folding decisions for those times when you dont have almost half your stack in the pot. Obviously I'm not suggesting calling if you know 100% that your opponent has AA (although I actually believe you probably should call if you know they both AA, but thats another story)

(Just found out that KK only scores 2% better against both players having AA....so maybe it's still a fold after all. I thought the EV would go up by 4-5%)

(While we are at it two more random yet cool facts:

1. If you know your opponent is pushing with any 2 cards, you would rather have AJs than AKo

2. If you know your opponent has JJ, you would rather have AJ than AT.

pergesu

06-02-2005, 08:39 AM

The once and future king

06-02-2005, 08:48 AM

Often on this forum the utterly important differance between TCEV and $EV is forgotten.

Whilst from a TCEV point of view this is no brainer, from a $EV point of view the fold needs more complex anaylsis.

I cant be assed to do the sums as I am currently 4 tabling.

Its not as clear cut as saying 80% of the time you bust, or 100% of the time you have 600 chips, as he wont have AA 100% of the time.

You have to make an assumption about how often he had AA to clarify if this fold was $EV.

No one has done that yet which is indicitave of the TCEV bias in the thinking on this forum.

That said I probaly never fold here.

Edited to add that alot of this post became redundant as I was typing it.

jcm4ccc

06-02-2005, 09:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or a big stack 20% of the time...and that's under the assumption that the guy shows you aces.

But account for the fact that he doesn't have aces. Maybe put him on a range of hands. Maybe say he'll do this with QQ+, AQs+, AKo. I dunno, pick a range.

The point is you can't peg him on aces - I think you said you haev no reads - thus 5-1 is just too good to pass up here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but you said "even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling." That's all I was responding to. That's a pet peeve of mine, I guess. In a tournament, just because you have the odds to call doesn't mean you should call.

As for the hand, of course I'm not folding my kings (even though my pocket kings have run into pocket aces three times in the past couple of days).

adanthar

06-02-2005, 09:10 AM

First, everyone who says you have the odds to spike a K is utterly wrong and should read the hand again. No, you don't, unless you are planning to fold any non-K flop for your last t250. This is a two-part fallacy; first, you call because you are getting odds, then, you call because you are getting odds (that he doesn't have AA) again. What actually happens is you lose your stack. Not as big a deal when you have kings, but I've seen people do it with jacks (and done it myself once or twice when on monkey tilt) which is much worse.

Next, IF this guy is good and you have more of a read than just this hand, the fold is fine simply because nobody good does this with queens. MP2 makes this more complicated because he probably won't fold even to a push, and in many cases his presence helps you depending on his hand.

Anyway, I wouldn't fold here except to people I knew really well and didn't have my screenname, but it's not horrible.

edit: and now, let this thread die, because people are gonna get exactly the wrong impression from it

pergesu

06-02-2005, 09:49 AM

fwiw, if your opponent does in fact show you AA, calling is horribly, horribly wrong, despite getting favorable pot odds. I know you guys know that, but I just wanted to come out and admit my oversight before someone really jumps on my back about it.

benza13

06-02-2005, 12:54 PM

I was reading this thread and this hand came up. Not that I would have folded here, but the thread certainly encouraged my push.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t905)
Button (t2320)
SB (t835)
BB (t790)
UTG (t745)
UTG+1 (t830)
Hero (t770)
MP2 (t805)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to t75, 1 fold, CO raises to t200, 3 folds, Hero raises to t770 (All-In), CO calls t570.

Flop: (t1565) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1565) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1565) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1565

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh Kd (full house, kings full of fives).
CO has As Ac (two pair, aces and fives).
Outcome: Hero wins t1565.

kyro

06-02-2005, 12:57 PM

This is a completely different scenario.

His scenario: Villain raises 3BB, Hero raises 6BB more, Villain reraises 3BB more.

Your scenario: Hero raises 5BB, Villain raises 8BB more.

It's the minreraise that triggered it.

curtains

06-02-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First, everyone who says you have the odds to spike a K is utterly wrong and should read the hand again. No, you don't, unless you are planning to fold any non-K flop for your last t250. This is a two-part fallacy; first, you call because you are getting odds, then, you call because you are getting odds (that he doesn't have AA) again. What actually happens is you lose your stack. Not as big a deal when you have kings, but I've seen people do it with jacks (and done it myself once or twice when on monkey tilt) which is much worse.

Next, IF this guy is good and you have more of a read than just this hand, the fold is fine simply because nobody good does this with queens. MP2 makes this more complicated because he probably won't fold even to a push, and in many cases his presence helps you depending on his hand.

Anyway, I wouldn't fold here except to people I knew really well and didn't have my screenname, but it's not horrible.

edit: and now, let this thread die, because people are gonna get exactly the wrong impression from it

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon man, you do have the right odds, I'm not suggesting calling and then folding on the flop! I'm suggesting putting all the chips in preflop. I think it's obvious that we are saying this because of the dual chance that also our opponent doesn't have AA.