Value bet on river against likely busted draw?

[FreakDaddy]

Villian is a calling station. I had to place him on a draw, but it's possible he was calling with Ax. So would you take a stab and value bet the river against a weak player, or do you consider it too risky?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($136.29)
Hero ($49.5)
MP1 ($91.63)
MP2 ($49.5)
MP3 ($58.4)
CO ($54.05)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($81.75)
BB ($35.17)
UTG ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, Button folds, BB calls $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50.

Turn: ($9.75) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls $10, UTG+1 folds.

River: ($29.75) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: $39.75