Attacking the blinds late in tournament

[50outs]

The situation:
sitting in 28th spot out of about 1300 players in 500k guaranteed on stars last sunday I got A7s two of the button holding an about half-the-average stack size of ~40k with blinds 4000-8000. Play is tight. I move in, BB calls, shows AQ, flop AQx, it's over.

I am not complaining here, I just wonder. IF trying to steal the blinds isn't it better to do it with "any two cards", especially NOT holding Ax?

My thinking/question goes this: If I get called in a situation like this (raise is all-in and > 3 BB) it is usally either by Ax (big stack) or ace-paint (medium/small stack) or any pair. Would I not feel much better there with a not-so-dominated hand, maybe like T8, JQ, QT or something?

I guess A7 can hardly be any good here IF called so why wait for/use a hand like this to make a move? My revisited strategy would be to move-in with better aces (AJ and better) or some kind of connected middle cards like above, JTs jumps to mind right away. What about AT?

Your thoughts?

[bruce]

Would you be posting this if your opponent flipped over KQs and your Ace high was good?

I believe if you steal out of position with Ace rag or hands like KJ, QJ, etc. you are asking for trouble. I would in that scenario rather steal with 67s, but in late position
A7s is a relatively strong hand.

Bruce

[50outs]

Bruce,

certainly not and especially not had I taken the blinds without any showdown. Unfortunatly, I come to think about something new often only after loosing something significant (and the chance to grab 148k 1st place money is significant 4me). Anyway, I thought about A7 being a good enough hand to move-in also but I am not sure anymore.

Not getting *anything* in the 60 minutes before that hand may have helped me to overestimate that one even more. Your comment about "relative strong" looks to me like you agree to moving in there?! How late would you have to sit to move in with something like 67s or JTo (9+ handed)? Would you at all?

[Chris Piekarski]

Something that I get a lot of heat for is the fact that I almost never push all in on my short stack with Ax, as you did in your example. I prefer to limp with those, and go all-in when I have a good ace, KT-KQ, QJ, or a pocket pair. The fact is, like you said, you're never getting called unless you're a 25/75 dog. There's something to be said for picking up the blinds though, and you'll usually do that..so I'm not sure how all the math works out. It just seems like if you have the odds to steal with A7, you also have the odds to steal with 27. Maybe I'm crazy.

[EarlOfSandwich]

I'd be very interested in a solid answer to this question.

What about the fact that a lot of the calling hands would be pocket pairs? Your A7 has at least one and maybe two overcards to the pair, while suited connectors might not.

Maybe Chris' suggestion of high connectors or one-gaps (QJ, J10, KJ) is a good one. You're over the pocket pairs, but perhaps dominated less frequently by Ace-x calling hands.

[bruce]

148k is not lunch money for me either.

At this stage of the event you have to steal blinds. With limits going up every 15 minutes you don't have the luxury
of being extremely selective.

A7 is a better than average hand. The problem with A7, when
called, is your often dominated. I think what you're trying
to say is if called you would rather play 72 or 89 and have
live cards which I certainly agree with.

Bruce

[CardSharpCook]

In this short stacked position of 5BBs, I'm opening the range of BB calling hands to AA-55, AK-AT, KQ-KJ, QJs.

With A7s, your equity is 40%.
With 67s, your equity is 34%.
With JTo, your equity is 33%.
With JTs, 37%.
With 22, 39%.


I think that in this short stack situation, the calling range I gave is good, but may even include any PP, and a few more hands as well. However, if we tighten up the range to, AA-88, AK-AJ, KQs, KQo, KJs your new numbers are...

A7s 36.6%
67s 33%
JTo 31.6%
JTs 35%
22 38.6%

Inuitively, A7s isn't such a great hand, but the numbers disagree.

CSC

[Scooterdoo]

great post. You really got to the bottom of the question and gave him (and us) exactly the answer we were looking for. Very well done!

* One thing to consider is if you take out the non-pair/non-A hands, the #'s should change away from the A7. Some players may not feel comfortable calling a significant all-in bet without an A or a pair. I would do the math myself but don't have the time -- I'm leaving in a few minutes to Vegas!

[50outs]

tyvm!
I got some enlightment by your posts.