What do you think of this play?

[mikeymer]

Hand #6266791-118 at WSOP730pm-003 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 01/Jun/05 21:08:59

LT3 is at seat 0 with 1890.
mikeivey is at seat 1 with 9690.
greenhornet1 is at seat 2 with 7250.
BigGunX is at seat 3 with 3435.
mvv01 is at seat 5 with 5830.
POKRJOKR is at seat 7 with 5515.
poker4proscom is at seat 8 with 1540.
Sir_Drake is at seat 9 with 14245.
The button is at seat 9.

LT3 posts the small blind of 100.
mikeivey posts the big blind of 200.

LT3: -- --
mikeivey: 5d Kc
greenhornet1: -- --
BigGunX: -- --
mvv01: -- --
POKRJOKR: -- --
poker4proscom: -- --
Sir_Drake: -- --

Pre-flop:

greenhornet1 folds. BigGunX folds. mvv01 folds.
POKRJOKR folds. poker4proscom folds. Sir_Drake
raises to 500. LT3 folds. mikeivey calls.

Flop (board: Qh 5h 4c):

mikeivey checks. Sir_Drake bets 650. mikeivey
raises to 2000. Sir_Drake calls.

Turn (board: Qh 5h 4c 7d):

mikeivey goes all-in for 7190.

[A_PLUS]

Whats your read on the Villan?

[mikeymer]

villan had been open raising about 3 times per orbit, and i'd seen him lay down to big bets...

my thinking was that i could make him lay this down... but the more I think about it, with my stack at the time, it wasn't worth the risk.

[Swash]

Your play will work most of the time, but...
why would you want to risk your whole tournament right here by going against the big stack, to win 5300 chips or so? The 5300 is significant, but does not appreciably improve your chances to win this tournament, and the downside of getting called is too horrible to think about. The only way I'd make a play like this is if: 1) I was one of the weakest players at the table and need to make big plays or die slowly, or 2) You've seen Sir Drake lay down a very high percentage of hands against big overbets in the past. Lacking either of those, I'd never make a play like this with second stack.

[Sluss]

What range do you put the villain on? He open raises from the button a pretty typical big stack move. Could have any two. Continuation bet on the flop still could be any two. You check raise for more than the pot. He calls.

Now his range is a little more refined. He has hit something on this flop. Nothing big though. Something like two pair or a set normally checks behind. I would think top pair or maybe a straight draw or flush draw. So now it could be AQ, KQ, Q10, QJ, 67, 23, Ax /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

So how many of these hands do you see him folding to your turn push?

[mikeymer]

He had AA, and I wasted my whole tournament on a completely unnecessary play... of course I would have felt smart if he layed it down. oh well. ty for the replies.